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PGA Tour Championship 2022: Round 1 Head-to-Head Best Bets

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We’re less than 24 hours away from the opening tee shots at the 2022 PGA Tour Championship. After Will Zalatoris’ withdrawal due to sustaining a back injury last weekend, the top 29 players ranked in the FedExCup standings will have four more rounds of golf to elevate their ranking and earnings by Sunday evening. Just like last weekend at the BMW Championship, there will be no cut lines enforced. However, the starting strokes format will be implemented for the fourth consecutive year.

Starting strokes is crucial to understand, especially betting Round 1 head-to-head matchups. For example, Sam Burns and Xander Schauffele are matched up for the opening round but Schauffele will start at six-under-par, compared to Burns who will open with five-under-par. Meanwhile, Adam Scott and Sahith Theegala, who both managed to sneak into the top 30 FedExCup rankings last weekend, will face off against each other at even par.

Here are three of my favorite Round 1 head-to-head best bets to lay during Thursday’s opening round at East Lake for the 2022 PGA Tour Championship. All plays below are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.

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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Corey Conners over Brian Harman (-140)

Conners is well-versed at East Lake, where he finished three-under-par after starting one-under-par in 2021. While he only managed to go two-under-par in his four rounds last year, the 30-year-old Canadian shot three-under-par in his opening round. He’s one of the best technicians in strokes gained tee-to-green and strokes gained off-the-tee, ranking inside the top 13 in both metrics. Conners is also automatic with hitting greens in regulation, converting over 71 percent of his attempts.

Brian Harman is ranked 90th in Round 1 scoring and he hasn’t competed at East Lake since 2017. This means he will be new to the starting strokes format, which was implemented in 2018. While Conners and Harman are both T21 and beginning Round 1 at one-under-par, I expect Conners to dominate with his irons at a familiar golf course. Lay -140 on Conners to finish with a lower score than Harman after Thursday’s opening round.

Cameron Young over Matt Fitzpatrick (+105)

Cameron Young is likely to become Rookie of the Year after turning in five runner-ups and seven T10 finishes this season. He has been quiet through two events in the FedExCup playoffs, finishing T31 and T23. Don’t let these pedestrian finishes diminish Young’s talent. He’s going to make his debut at East Lake but he’s averaging 68.91 in the first round of tournaments this season, ranking ninth best on the PGA Tour.

Matt Fitzpatrick is also new to East Lake after posting ten T10 finishes this season. He’s a wizard with his irons and putter but he does struggle to convert greens in regulation, ranking 87th at a 66 percent conversion rate. He also averages under four birdies per round, while Young is ranked sixth-best with 4.41 birdies per round. Fitzpatrick is a good player but he starts slower than Young, ranking 44th in Round 1 scoring (69.164) and his driver is not nearly as strong. It’s a lengthy course with plenty of doglegged fairways and bunkers flanking the tiered greens. This plays right into Young’s skillset.

Both players will start at three-under-par based on the starting strokes format but Young is the superior talent. Getting him at plus-odds (+105) is a steal.

Sungjae Im over Jon Rahm (+115)

Sungjae Im has quietly delivered dazzling performances across the last month, finishing T2, T2, 12th, and T15. He will face off against Jon Rahm in the opening round at East Lake but Im will enjoy a one-stroke lead over the Spaniard. Im will make his fourth consecutive appearance at the PGA Tour Championship, which should make him more comfortable and eliminate the pressure of a debut. Im has a 69.17 Round 1 scoring average, ranking 11th on the PGA Tour. He sinks birdies, converts greens in regulation with ease, and has incredible irons to pair with a strong putter.

Jon Rahm may be the superior talent but he’s been starting slow lately. The 27-year-old Spaniard finished with a first-round score of 73 at the BMW Championship last Thursday but dominated in the final two rounds. His Round 1 scoring average is a solid 69.41, ranking 24th. He’s only a tad bit higher than Im but this will be amplified by starting with a one-stroke deficit against the talented South Korean.

While Rahm nearly pulled off a major upset at East Lake, finishing one stroke behind winner Patrick Cantlay at 20-under-par, he’s opened with 73 in two of his previous three events. Im has opened with a pair of 70s in each of the previous FedExCup playoff events but his one-stroke lead gives his +115 odds a realistic chance of hitting. Take Im over Rahm as a confident underdog play during Thursday’s opening round.

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