The English Premier League (EPL) action continues this weekend and the table is heating up as we enter the back half of the campaign. Below I'll dive into my three favorite wagers on the English pitch this weekend.
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Premier League Matchday 22 Preview & Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nottingham Forest (-245) vs. Southampton (+700), DRAW (+380) | O/U 2.5 (-135/+110)
Sunday's four-match slate opens up with a trio of games, one of which pits Nottingham Forest against Southampton. The Trees are currently in third place with a record of 12-5-4 (41 points), while the visiting Saints are in dead last with a record of 1-3-17 (six points). Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET from The City Ground in Nottingham.
Okay, first off, this Moneyline is extremely short. I can't officially give out a -245 Moneyline pick, but I am pairing this with Ohio State -2.5 (-278) in Monday's College Football National Championship game to create a -110 parlay. This Nottingham Forest team continues to be undervalued and it's time we start taking them seriously in the English top flight. They've won seven of their last eight matches (7-1-0), with the lone blemish being a 1-1 home draw against a juggernaut Liverpool squad.
Just before limiting the Reds to one tally, the Tricky Trees had posted five consecutive clean sheets across all competitions. Goalkeeper Matz Sels leads the EPL in clean sheets with nine. Forest will welcome in a Southampton bunch destined for relegation, ranking dead last in scoring (13 goals in 21 matches) and 17th in expected goals (xG) - 21.1. I like the hosts to post a shutout in front of their home crowd. In eight home matches this year, Nuno Espirito Santo's men have only allowed eight goals, which is the best in the EPL.
Bet: Nottingham Forest to Keep a Clean Sheet (+100)
Ipswich Town (+650) vs. Manchester City (-265), DRAW (+425) | O/U 3.5 (+115/-145)
Sunday's action concludes with an interesting contest between Ipswich Town and Manchester City. The hosting Tractor Boys are below the relegation line in 18th place (3-7-11, 16 points), while the Citizens are in eighth place with a record of 10-5-6 (35 points). Sunday's Premier League nightcap kicks off at 11:30 a.m. ET from Portman Road in Ipswich.
I don't mind laying the juice here and playing the under 3.5 goals. Man City has a huge Champions League match against France's Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday, so this feels like a spot where they might try to get in and out, collect their three points and avoid injury. I don't see them pouring it on against Ipswich Town, who in their defense, have been OK defensively, allowing 1.76 goals per match (15th).
On the flip side, Manchester City's defense has looked decent recently, allowing one or fewer goals in four of their last five matches. They'll be tasked with slowing down an Ipswich club ranked 18th in scoring (20 goals) and 19th in xG (19.5). They're averaging just under a goal per match. With the form Man City's in, I think they can keep a clean sheet here. I see this one finishing 2-0, 3-0 or maybe 2-1 in favor of the visitors. I'll play the under.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals (-145)
Chelsea (-260) vs. Wolverhampton (+600), DRAW (+450) | O/U 3.5 (-105/-120)
The matchday wraps up on Monday, as Chelsea hosts Wolverhampton in London. The Blues are in fifth place with a 10-7-4 record (37 points), while the visiting Wanderers are just above the relegation line in 17th place (4-4-13, 16 points). Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET from Stamford Bridge in London.
The market for this game seems pretty spot on. There's a decent range of outcomes in this contest due to the volatility of both teams. However, there are two constants - Chelsea's offense is legit and the Wolves’ defense is abysmal. I'll craft a same-game parlay (SGP) here and play Chelsea to win and for the game to go over 2.5 goals. When thinking about the range of scores, I can see Chelsea blasting the Wolves 4-0 or 3-0, but I also won't be surprised if we get a 2-1 game, which is why I'm hesitant to lay 1.5 goals (-110) with the Blues. Regardless, I think the hosts win and I expect to see some scoring.
Statistically, the Wolves are the worst defense in the Premier League, where they've conceded 48 goals across 21 matches (2.29 per match). They're a bit better in terms of expected goals against (xGA) - 15th (34.9) - but let's remember the bookmakers don't grade bets based on expected outcomes. Meanwhile, Chelsea has been racking up the goals this season, as they're third in scoring (41 goals) and second in xG (42.1). They also haven't been flawless defensively, ranking seventh in goals against (26) and 10th in xGA (29.9). Both of these teams have a chance to find offensive success, but I ultimately believe Chelsea will outpace the visitors.
Bet: Chelsea to Win & Over 2.5 Goals Parlay (-140)
