March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Saint Mary’s vs. VCU
Saint Mary’s Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Logan Johnson |
13.9 |
5.5 |
3.4 |
19.4 |
17.3 |
22.8 |
0.8 |
3.0 |
| Aidan Mahaney |
13.7 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
16.3 |
15.6 |
18.2 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
| Alex Ducas |
13.2 |
5.4 |
1.0 |
18.7 |
14.2 |
19.7 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
| Mitchell Saxen |
9.5 |
7.7 |
1.4 |
17.2 |
10.9 |
18.6 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
| Augustas Marciulionis |
3.3 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
5.0 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
| Kyle Bowen |
4.9 |
8.1 |
1.5 |
12.9 |
6.4 |
14.5 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
| Harry Wessels |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Joshua Jefferson |
3.6 |
2.6 |
0.8 |
6.2 |
4.4 |
7.0 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
| Luke Barrett |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chris Howell |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
VCU Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Brandon Johns |
10.2 |
5.0 |
0.4 |
15.2 |
10.7 |
15.7 |
0.3 |
3.0 |
| Ace Baldwin |
10.8 |
2.7 |
3.4 |
13.5 |
14.2 |
16.9 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
| Jalen Deloach |
8.2 |
6.2 |
0.6 |
14.5 |
8.8 |
15.1 |
0.0 |
1.8 |
| Jamir Watkins |
8.3 |
5.0 |
0.8 |
13.3 |
9.1 |
14.1 |
0.8 |
2.1 |
| Jayden Nunn |
7.7 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
9.8 |
8.6 |
10.7 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
| David Shriver |
5.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
7.2 |
5.5 |
7.5 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
| Nicholas Kern |
5.6 |
3.1 |
0.6 |
8.7 |
6.2 |
9.3 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
| Zeb Jackson |
2.7 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
4.2 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
| Josh Banks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Toibu Lawal |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Christian Fermin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Alphonzo Billups |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arnold Henderson VI |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Saint Mary’s vs. VCU Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Saint Mary’s
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Alex Ducas Under 1.5 Assists |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Logan Johnson Under 17.5 Points |
-109 |
1.09 |
1 |
UB |
| Mitchell Saxen Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
MGM |
| Mitchell Saxen Over 15.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Logan Johnson Over 2.5 Assists |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
MGM |
| Aidan Mahaney Over 12.5 Points |
105 |
1 |
1.05 |
DK |
VCU
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Ace Baldwin Under 5.5 Assists |
112 |
1 |
1.12 |
FD |
| Brandon Johns Under 5.5 Rebounds |
-114 |
1.14 |
1 |
FD |
| Jamir Watkins Under 9.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
FD |
| Nicholas Kern Under 10.5 PRAs |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
| Jalen Deloach Under 9.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
East
West
Midwest
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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