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San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens Odds & Game Pick

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The game of the week will take place in Baltimore between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers. The Ravens are 9-2 with only back-to-back losses to the Browns and Chiefs blemishing their record. The 49ers are 10-1, with their lone loss coming in a thrilling overtime game-of-the-year candidate against the Seattle Seahawks. A potential Super Bowl preview with massive potential playoff implications, this is appointment television.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -4.5 on the Baltimore Ravens. The consensus over/under total opened at 46 points. The point spread has seen a dramatic increase to -6. The over/under total has increased to 47.
  • Current Line: Baltimore -6
  • O/U: 47
  • Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, December 1st
  • Last Meeting: San Francisco defeated Baltimore 25-20 – October 18, 2015

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for 49ers at Ravens >>

Overview

The San Francisco 49ers keep on winning. Some may argue that the 49ers have yet to beat a team at or near the top of their game due to facing only two teams that are currently projected to make the playoffs. They manhandled the Packers, but Green Bay’s offense continues to sputter since the return of Davante Adams. Their other playoff opponent was the Seattle Seahawks, who they lost to in a tight battle to while shorthanded. However, if not for some mistakes by D.K. Metcalf and Russell Wilson, the final scoreline may have looked very different in Seattle’s favor. The public’s excuses are over. This weekend the 49ers face off against the new darlings of the NFL. A win over the Baltimore Ravens, or even next week’s opponents in the New Orleans Saints, would instantly legitimize the San Francisco 49ers’ entire season. With the Seattle Seahawks trailing them by half a game and having the head to head win, a loss in either contest could drop to the 49ers to second place in the NFC West.

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Under the guidance of MVP-favorite Lamar Jackson, the Baltimore Ravens have become must-see TV. Despite a relative lack of talent at wide receiver outside of rookie Marquise Brown, the Ravens have become the most exciting offense in the league. With the acquisition of Marcus Peters and the return of Jimmy Smith, the Ravens defense has become ferocious. The best team in football moniker has been bandied about, but the Ravens will need to secure a win against their Week 13 opponent to truly be able to stake claim to that title. Marquee wins over the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots have legitimized their season, with the latter being a true statement win. The 49ers represent another tough test for the Baltimore Ravens, possibly their toughest of the season. 

Trends

  • The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams. 
  • San Francisco is 6-4 ATS on the season. 
  • San Francisco is 3-2 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Baltimore is 6-5 ATS on the season. 
  • Baltimore is 2-3 ATS at home this season. 
  • San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests following a win ATS. 
  • San Francisco is 2-0 ATS in their last two contests. 
  • San Francisco is 1-2 ATS in their last three road contests. 
  • Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests. 
  • Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests following a straight-up win.
  • Over is 5-1 in San Francisco’s last six road contests against teams with winning home records.   
  • Over is 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five contests. 
  • Over is 9-4 in San Francisco’s last 13 contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Over is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven contests following a win ATS. 
  • Over is 3-1 in Baltimore’s last four contests. 
  • Under is 3-2 in Baltimore’s last five home contests. 

Prop Bets

Mark Ingram over 50 rushing yards (-333)
Over 75 rushing yards at -114 was strongly considered here, but the win probability of that player prop did not suggest enough of a value to be worth recommending. Ingram has gone over 75 yards just four times this season. He has gone over 50 rushing yards in six of his 11 contests, with four more performances of 44 yards or more. The 49ers have allowed 4.33 yards per carry on the season to the running back position, and they have held just two backfields under 50 rushing yards all season. They have yet to accomplish that feat since losing linebacker Kwon Alexander for the season. While the win probability of this prop suggests it is worth laying the juice for a full unit return, the recommendation here is to lay a single unit for a partial return instead.

Baltimore Ravens over 26 points (-105)
The Baltimore Ravens’ team total over is the new play du jour. A total to chase for the rest of the season, the juice is inexplicably currently on the under at -115 at PointsBet. Including their contests against New England and Seattle, Baltimore has scored 30 or more in five straight games. The Ravens offense has truly looked unstoppable, but losing Matt Skura could have led to some early under action. It is also possible that the early bettors believe that the 49ers’ defense is good enough to keep the Ravens under 26 points on their own merit. Whatever the case, their lean has presented us with even greater value on a prop that has a significantly higher win probability than the odds suggest. The Ravens have scored fewer than 26 points just twice this season. Lock this one in before the odds shift. 

Bottom Line

The opening line of -4.5 was significantly more appealing, but there is still some value in taking a scorching Ravens team at -6. The 49ers have been amazing in their own right this season, but the Ravens have beaten Seattle and New England by an average of 15.5 points. They have won their last three contests by 36, 34, and 39. The Ravens are too hot to fade, and the alarming early line movement suggests that the sharps have seen enough to side with the public on this contest. Such dramatic line movement in a contest between two teams that are so evenly matched on paper does not occur without significant sharp action pouring in on the Ravens. With -5.5 still being offered by the aggressive FanDuel, there is no question as to where to lay our action this week. Follow the sharps, the early money, and our expert consensus, and roll with the Ravens at -5.5 at FanDuel.

Pick: Baltimore -5.5 (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.