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New England Patriots at Houston Texans Odds & Game Pick

by November 30, 2019

Tom Brady versus Deshaun Watson is regular appointment viewing, and luckily for us, the NFL schedule makers agreed and have set this matchup for Sunday Night Football. A battle between AFC division leaders will be the perfect way to cap off a day that also features the San Francisco 49ers facing the Baltimore Ravens. This is going to be an interesting test for both teams. Despite wins, the Patriots have struggled in their last two outings and will be facing a Texans team that only has one loss at home all season. A loss by either team could affect their playoff outlooks. For the Patriots it could cost them home-field advantage. For the Texans, it could allow the Indianapolis Colts to pull even with Houston for first place in the AFC South. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3.5 on the New England Patriots. The consensus over/under total opened at 45 points. The point spread has seen a small drop to -3. The over/under total has seen some movement but has settled back at 45.
  • Current Line: Houston +3
  • O/U: 45
  • Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
  • Start Time: 8:20 PM EST, Sunday, December 1st
  • Last Meeting: New England defeated Houston 27-20 – September 9, 2018

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for Patriots at Texans  >>

Overview 

The New England Patriots have been able to ride their scorching hot defense and stellar special teams play to a 10-1 record. Their offense has been a shell of what it was in years past, and not even the acquisition of the currently banged up Mohamed Sanu from the Atlanta Falcons could help right the ship. Having to part ways with Antonio Brown is still being felt by a team that lost superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski to early retirement this offseason. Despite their struggles, the Patriots still find themselves in pole position for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. New England has tough contests in three of their next four games, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against true playoff level teams. The Patriots will have to fend off the Baltimore Ravens, and possibly their division rivals in the upstart Buffalo Bills to maintain home field in the AFC. Maintaining a better record than the Ravens will be key due to Baltimore’s head to head tiebreaker. Their quest to do just that will start on Sunday night against the Houston Texans. 

Houston is a strong 7-4 on the season, but have some uninspiring losses to the Carolina Panthers and their division rivals in the Indianapolis Colts on their record. Three of their losses this season have come on the road. The Texans defense is no longer the strength of their team, but that is to be expected from a team that lost J.J. Watt for the season, and traded away star edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney. The Ravens looked much more explosive in Week 12 with star receiver Will Fuller back in the offense, and their defense is about to get a boost with the return of cornerback Bradley Roby. If the Texans can secure a win against the Patriots, they have the soft schedule to finish 12-4 on the season. It is going to be an interesting five weeks for the Texans organization. 

Trends 

  • New England is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against Houston. 
  • The favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine contests between these two teams.
  • Over is 8-3 in the last 11 contests between these two teams. 
  • New England is 7-4 ATS on the season. 
  • New England is 4-2 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Houston is 8-6 ATS on the season. 
  • Houston is 1-4 ATS at home this season. 
  • New England is 6-2 ATS in their last eight road contests. 
  • New England is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests against the AFC.
  • New England is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following a loss ATS. 
  • Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests. 
  • Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last six home contests. 
  • Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Under is 4-1 in New England’s last five contests. 
  • Under is 4-1 in New England’s last five contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Under is 5-2 in New England’s last seven contests against the AFC.
  • Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four contests. 
  • Under is 8-1 in Houston’s last nine home contests. 
  • Under is 4-1 in Houston’s last five contests following a loss ATS.

Prop Bets 

Will Fuller over 49.5 receiving yards (-250)
Will Fuller should be able to shine against the New England Patriots. One of the toughest covers in the league, Will Fuller could very well get loose for a couple of long gains against New England. Superstar corner Stephon Gilmore is going to be preoccupied with Deandre Hopkins, which means Fuller may end up being Deshaun Watson’s number one target for the evening. The juice here is a little heavier than one would like, but the win probability versus the over 74.5 yards for just +110 makes this total the smarter play. While it is indeed called gambling, we are all about helping you build your bankroll. Jason McCourty is no Gilmore but has been an excellent number two this season, who according to Sports Info Solutions is allowing just 5.2 yards per target. Gilmore has allowed 5.3. This is what makes over 49.5 a far superior option to 74.5. Lock this one in before the juice rises to the -280 area.

Bottom Line 

The New England Patriots defense has been fantastic this season. With that being said, they have faced just one good offensive team all season and allowed a whopping 37 points to the Baltimore Ravens. It was also the Patriots first and only loss of the season. I am not going to tell you that the Houston Texans have been anything close to what the Baltimore Ravens has been this season. What they do have however is a dynamic young quarterback that can also cause problems through the air and on the ground. Houston has been poor against the spread at home this season with just a 1-4 record, but have the makeup and explosive offense to give the Patriots a run for their money. The sharps and early bettors agree as the consensus point spread for this contest has dropped from -3.5 to -3. The Patriots have struggled to their last two wins against Philadelphia and Dallas of all teams, and will be facing a much tougher test with the Texans. The moneyline looks good, but there is no reason not to shop this line for the +3.5 we can get on FanDuel as well.

Pick: Houston Texans +3.5 (-114) and moneyline +154

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.