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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars Odds & Game Pick

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The Jacksonville Jaguars were listed as a three-point favorite when their line for a date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday was first released. A couple of days later, Jacksonville became a home underdog. Much of the money has been on Tampa Bay in this game as the Jaguars have looked like they’ve tapped out. They’ve been blown out in three straight losses, losing by a combined score of 101-36. Tampa Bay hasn’t been great, but they’ve had some fight to them. Are they the right play in this spot?

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Details

  • Opening Line: Jacksonville -3
  • Current Line: Tampa Bay -1.5
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Last Meeting: Buccaneers 38 vs. Jaguars 31 (10/11/15)

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Overview

One of the most difficult things to do this season is to predict which Tampa Bay team will show up from one week to the next. Coming off a 35-22 win over the Atlanta Falcons, we get yet another reminder of the immense potential of this team. At the same time, the Buccaneers have the worst ATS record in the NFL. They also haven’t been able to win back-to-back games once this season. Will that change this Sunday? Jameis Winston, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans are capable of putting up some big numbers. Even so, Winston has an incredible 20 interceptions. The Bucs figure to have a much easier time winning if he stops giving the ball away at alarming rates. The Tampa Bay run defense is also pretty good. That’s really the key here. If Tampa Bay can cut off Leonard Fournette, the Jags probably have no path to winning here.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville is coming off a pair of embarrassing blowout losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. After giving up a combined 75 points in those defeats, the Jaguars could be in a tough spot to slow down an explosive Tampa Bay offense. At the same time, quarterback Nick Foles has really struggled to get going since making his return. Jacksonville has leaned heavily on running back Leonard Fournette this season, but that might not be the best plan of attack against this improved Buccaneers’ front-seven. The Bucs allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game (78.4).

Trends

  • Tampa Bay is NFL-worst 3-8 ATS overall this season
  • Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in last 8 December games
  • Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in last 5 games following SU Win
  • Jacksonville is 3-15 SU and ATS in last 18 vs. NFC opponents
  • Jaguars have won 4 of the past 5 head-to-head meetings
  • Jacksonville is 3-0 SU at home vs. Buccaneers all-time

Bottom Line

As unpredictable as Tampa Bay has been this season, they have still shown us a lot more of late than Jacksonville. Winston is capable of putting up some big numbers in the passing game. As long as he limits the turnovers, the Buccaneers should be able to win this game straight up. It won’t be a blowout by any means, as the Jaguars do their best to earn a measure of redemption following three straight blowout wins. The Bucs have never beaten the Jaguars, but they have a great chance to do so on Sunday.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 31, Jacksonville 29

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.