Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Gator Bowl | Jacksonville, FL
Friday, December 29 | 12:00p | ESPN
Total: 46.5 | ATL: Kentucky -2.2 | ATT: 58.3
Clemson Tigers
WR Collins was a three-year starter who never quite lived up to his billing - failing to post a PFF grade higher than 65.2 in any of those seasons. His inconsistencies frustrated, but Collins was one of the few guys on the roster able to make contested plays down the field. He's headed to Notre Dame to play his final season of eligibility with fellow transfer QB Riley Leonard.
OL Mayes struggled whenever he was on the field this fall. He transferred down to Charlotte.
DL Orhorhoro had five sacks and was named to the third-team All-ACC team for a second-consecutive season.
LB Trotter, Mel Kiper’s No. 2 LB in the 2024 draft class, posted 88 tackles, 15 TFL, 5.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception during the regular season. He was a first-team All-ACC honoree, as well as a Butkus Award finalist.
S Mukuba was a three-year starter. In 2021, he burst onto the scene as a Freshman All-American and the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year. He transferred to Texas, a homecoming - Mukuba hails from Austin, Texas.
Clemson is in a worse position at CB. “We have no corners. I’m drafting guys,” HC Dabo Swinney said on Dec. 12. CB Wiggins, No. 24 overall on Mel Kiper’s big board, earned first-team All-ACC honors in 2023. With CB Wiggins and CB Pride out the door, and CB Sheridan Jones out with an injury, Clemson’s starting CBs for this game are Avieon Terrell and Shelton Lewis.
Myles Oliver, practiced at less than 100-percent health in advance of this game, will get a lot of work behind them. The CB situation at Clemson is so dire that Swinney got RB Peyton Streko and WR Hamp Greene practice time this month at CB in case an emergency forces them into action.
Other opt-out news: Impact defensive starters DT Tyler Davis and LB Barrett Carter were both listed on the bowl depth chart in the days leading up to this game. Each will start. As will RB Will Shipley, whose availability was tipped-off by HC Swinney weeks ago.
Injury news: WR Brannon Spector (76 snaps), LG Marcus Tate (508 snaps/86.7 pass block grade) and S Jalyn Phillips (319 snaps/80.3 tackle grade) have all been out since Week 9 with undisclosed injuries. WRs Spector and Williams were listed as backups on the bowl depth chart, while Phillips is listed as the starting FS. OG Tate is not listed. WR Antonio Williams has been out since Week 8 with a leg injury. CB Sheridan Jones is confirmed out with a hip injury.
Coaching News: HC Dabo Swinney is 12-7 ATS over his career in bowl games. Clemson fired OL Thomas Austin and DE coach Lemanski Hall. Those positions will be filled by Matt Luke and Chris Rumph, respectively, following the bowl game. In-house fill-ins will plug the holes on an interim basis until then.
Kentucky Wildcats
The Wade twins, QB Destin and EDGE Keatan, committed to Colorado in tandem on Dec. 15. Keatan appeared in every game the last two seasons. A rotational EDGE, he posted 35 tackles, three TFL, and a sack in 2023. Destin is a backup who wouldn't have played in this game. TE Izayah Cummings transferred to Louisville.
LG Horsey is a long-time starter who struggled with injuries throughout the 2023 campaign. Likely because of that, he shut himself down after the regular season finale to get healthy for the NFL Draft process.
RT Flax was a surprise opt-out the week prior to this game. He's accepted a Hula Bowl invite to kick-off his NFL Draft process. Dylan Ray will start at left guard, and Courtland Ford to start at right tackle. Each of those guys on a per-snap basis was not a drop-off from the starter they're replacing - however, Kentucky's offensive line depth is now thin.
Other opt-out news: Starters QB Devin Leary, RB Ray Davis (1,383 total yards/20 TDs) and CB Andru Phillips (653 snaps/68.0 PFF cover grade) are all NFL Draft-bound, but each will play in the bowl game. RB JuThan McClain (82 snaps) and TE Jordan Dingle (284 snaps) are both in the transfer portal but will play.
Injury news: TE Jordan Dingle hasn't played since Week 11, but his health status shouldn't be relevant since he's in the transfer portal. Fellow TE Josh Kattus also was unable to suit up for UK's last game against Louisville, which could present a positional depth issue if he's unable to play as both Dingle and TE Izayah Cummings are in the portal.
Coaching News: HC Mark Stoops flirted strongly with the Texas A&M job in late-November before ultimately deciding to stay. Stoops is 3-3-1 ATS in seven career bowl games. An interim WR coach is in place for this game after the school fired WR coach Scott Woodward.
The Handicap
In the lead-up to this game, Kentucky got good news on a number of different high-profile NFL hopefuls, starting with QB Devin Leary and RB Ray Davis.
Everything out of the Kentucky camp has made it appear that this team is locked-in on this game... and this opponent, in particular. "…[W]e're ... trying to go play a very high level opponent, and we need this win to go into the offseason on the right note," OC Liam Coen said earlier this week.
Comments like this have littered Kentucky press clippings the past few weeks: The Wildcats - who had an up-and-down season - view this as a chance to knock off one of college football's premier programs.
If you need empirical evidence that they still have fight beyond that, I'd point you to the regular season finale against Louisville. Kentucky had nothing to play for - they'd already qualified for their bowl and weren't going to move up the pecking order with a non-con win. On the other side, Louisville had everything to play for. If the Cardinals won out, they were either going to a New Year's 6 bowl, or the CFP (if chaos occurred around them). Instead, Kentucky upset Louisville as a touchdown-plus underdog.
Clemson's defense is not going to look the same in this game following defections. Particularly in the secondary, where the Tigers enter this game in a precarious spot (detailed above). For Clemson, this is a playing-out-the-string game on a lost season. For Kentucky, it's the chance to seize the narrative on the 2023 season by upsetting a bully.
And not for nothing: My system says a Kentucky win won't be an upset at all. With both of these teams at full-strength, my line would have been Clemson -5. Both of these teams are not at full-strength.
The pick: Kentucky +5.5
Sun Bowl | El Paso, TX
Friday, December 29 | 2:00p | CBS
Total: 41.5 | ATL: ND -1.2 | ATT: 51.9
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
QB1 Sam Hartman's defection, on Dec. 11, was a surprise. Hartman previously stated he would play in this game. But he changed his mind, and will begin preparing for the NFL Draft immediately. Hartman had 2,689 passing yards and a 26/8 TD/INT rate this fall. Hartman's decision elevates QB2 Steve Angeli to the starting post for this game. Angeli posted a 5/1 TD/INT rate in a five-appearance mop-up duty sample this fall.
Three days after Hartman’s announcement, RB1 Estime likewise opted-out to begin draft prep. Estime is a top-3 back on the boards of both Mel Kiper and Matt Miller. A second-team AP All-American in 2023, Estime posted an absurd 94.2 PFF grade in 2023. He ran for 1,341 yards and 18 TD. Jeremiyah Love is likely to start with Gi'Bran Payne and Jadarian Price mixing in behind him. Love forced 19 missed tackles and ranked No. 23 with 4.16 rushing yards after contact per attempt.
The Irish's wide receiving room has been blown up, from the firing of the coach (below) to the mass exodus of players to the portal. Tyree posted 26 catches for 484 yards and three TD during the regular season. He's an explosive, slippery player with the ball in his hands - dangerous return man - who needs to clean up the drops.
Losing him along with Flores hurts. Flores flashed big potential with a 27-392-1 line during the 2023 regular season as a true freshman. He was one of Sam Hartman's favorite targets. Flores' absence sting more from a long-term perspective, but Hartman will miss him in this game. Merriweather is a former top-100 recruit who never quite got going in South Bend, ending his two-year career with just 15 catches.
TE Staes played a lot more after the season-ending knee injury to TE1 Mitchell Evans. Staes had a 15-176-4 line in 2023 as a sophomore, much of it coming during a 115-yard, two-TD explosion versus NC State.
LT Joe Alt (713 snaps) was an expected loss. But that doesn't mitigate the sting of his opt-out to prepare for the NFL Draft. The 6-foot-8, 322-pound Alt was a 2023 Lombardi Award finalist and a two-time AP first-team All-American. Alt, the No. 15 overall player on Mel Kiper's board, posted a 90.8 PFF grade this fall.
The Irish's other starting tackle, RT Fisher, also opted-out for the draft. Fisher started the past 25 games. Fisher has a ton of talent - he actually beat out Alt for the LT gig two years ago before quickly getting injured and Wally Pipp'd - but hasn't put it all together yet. He posted a 71.1 PFF grade in 2023.
Tosh Baker, Aamil Wagner, and Charles Jagusah are the three guys in line to plug the two tackle holes. Baker and Wager were the backup OTs during the fall. Jagusah, a highly-touted freshman who ranked highest among ND's 2023 class, only played five snaps all season after beginning the fall injured. They all came at guard. But he began bowl practices getting LT1 snaps.
Prior to missing the final two games of the regular season with a concussion, C Correll had started 23 games in a row. Redshirt freshman C Ashton Craig acquitted himself well in Correll's place against Wake Forest and Stanford, softening that blow a bit.
iOL Tanona isn't really a loss, as he's been medically retired the past two seasons. He announced his unretirement along with his plans to find a new home via the Transfer portal.
DE Osafo-Mensah and DB Henderson were both heavily-used rotational players who are leaving to find full-time gigs elsewhere. Osafo-Mensah posted 5.5 TFL and three sacks despite starting only one game. Henderson had an interception, three pass breakups and two fumble recoveries.
Notre Dame lost two impact defensive starters in LB Marist Liufau and CB Cam Hart. LB Liufau had 44 solo tackles, six TFL, three sacks and two break-ups this year.
CB Hart, who converted from wide receiver in 2019, developed into a shutdown corner on campus. He only gave up 15 receptions on 28 targets while starting all 12 games during the regular season. When he gave up a catch, the whistle was blowing quickly - of the 137 yards that Hart gave up, only 42 were YAC. Jaden Mickey and Christian Gray will both see upticks in snaps in his absence.
Other opt-out news: S Xavier Watts (675 snaps), who won the Nagurski, confirmed that he'll play in this game. DT Howard Cross (582 snaps) also appears to be a-go after announcing his return for next season. DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste (496 snaps) and LB JD Bertrand (613 snaps) both plan to play.
Injury news: TE1 Mitchell Evans is out for the season with an ACL tear. RG1 Rocco Spindler (559 snaps) was lost to a season-ending injury in Week 10. Billy Schrauth (196 snaps) slotted into the lineup as Spindler's replacement. WRs Jayden Thomas, Deion Colzie and KK Smith are all expected to return from injuries in this game. That's clutch, since most of the rest of Notre Dame's receiving room has been blown up by defections.
Coaching News: Following the end of the regular season, Notre Dame fired WR Chansi Stuckey. Stuckey is being replaced by Wisconsin associate HC and WR coach Mike Brown. OC Gerad Parker left to become Troy's new HC. QB coach Gino Guidugli, the former OC at Cincinnati, will take over play-calling duties in this game. HC Marcus Freeman says he's a candidate for the full-time gig.
Oregon State Beavers
QB1 Uiagalelei threw for 2,638 yards with a 21/7 TD/INT rate for the Beavers this season. With QB2 Chiles - Oregon State's change-of-pace running quarterback this fall - also opting-out (he followed HC Jonathan Smith to Michigan State), the Beavs will be down to QB3 Ben Gulbranson.
Gulbranson is far more experienced than your typical QB3, having started the final eight games of 2022. He was knocked down the depth chart after Oregon State poached Uiagalelei from Clemson and signed Chiles out of the prep ranks.
RB1 Martinez, the team's bellcow runner, was suspended after getting arrested in late-November on suspicion of DUII. Though he was ultimately reinstated, HC Trent Bray said Martinez will not play in the bowl game because he missed too many bowl practices. Martinez led the Beavers with 1,185 rushing yards and nine TD.
TE1 Velling posted 29 catches and eight TD in 2023. Big downgrade to TE2 Jermaine Terry II, who posted an unsightly 44.4 PFF grade. OT Fuaga, who had an elite 88.9 PFF grade, is the No. 17 overall prospect on Mel Kiper’s big board.
LB1 Mascarenas-Arnold was the team's leading tackler. He's off to USC. Heavily-used CB McCoy transferred to Tennessee. K1 Sappington went 13-of-14 on FG attempts.
Other opt-out news: Oregon State expects CBs Jaden Robinson and Noble Thomas to play in this game.
Injury news: Starting LT Joshua Gray 682 snaps/70.9 PFF overall grade) has been ruled out for the bowl with a foot injury. LG Heneli Bloomfield (619 snaps/72.9 PFF overall grade) was lost for the season in Week 12. At the time he went down, Bloomfield was the Pac-12's fourth-highest-graded guard by PFF's metrics. Oregon State's opt-out situation was bad enough. Injuries also conspired to wipe out the left side of the offensive line.
Coaching News: OSU HC Jonathan Smith left to take the Michigan State job. The Beavers elevated DC Trent Bray to permanent HC to replace Smith. Interestingly, though, Oregon State has elected to have Bray focus on recruiting, and not the bowl game, this month. With Bray not involved in bowl prep, the Beavers named passing game coordinator Kefense Hynson interim HC for this game. There are numerous other staff changes for this game after the staff was blown up following Smith's defection. OC Brian Lindgren, RB coach Keith Bhonapha, OL coach Jim Michalczik, and DB coach Blue Adams all followed Smith to East Lansing. CB coach Anthony Perkins will fill-in for Bray as interim DC in this game. Jon Boyer has been elevated from senior advisor on offense to TE coach.
The Handicap
Just like the Clemson-Kentucky game above, this is a case where the market has not accurately baked opt-outs into their betting decisions. Ergo, we've got some real value on the underdog.
If Notre Dame and Oregon State had played this exact same game at this exact location at full-strength during the regular season, my line would have been ND -6.3 - basically, where this line has settled.
But, by any measure, Notre Dame's roster has taken a much larger defection hit than Oregon State's since the regular season ended.
And though Oregon State's staff got shaken up by HC Smith leaving for Michigan State, Oregon State kept continuity by promoting from within.
At almost all the spots where Oregon State lost a starter, they have a backup with extensive experience.
Notre Dame cannot say the same.
Oregon State - just like Kentucky - is a live 'dog.
The pick: Oregon State +6.5
Liberty Bowl | Memphis, TN
Friday, December 29 | 3:30p | ESPN
Total: 57.5 | ATL: ISU -9.8 | ATT: 61.7
Iowa State Cyclones
RBs Norton and Sanders were the team's top-two backs in terms of snaps. And while both are solid players, youngster RB Abu Sama III (84.6 PFF grade) deserved more usage, and he's going to get it here. Sama averaged a ridiculous 7.3 yards after contact per attempt over his 72 carries.
Outside of that, Iowa State had few defections of note. OG Simmons was the only other player with more than 65 snaps who entered the portal. But the emergence of true freshman Brendan Black got Simmons phased out of the lineup around the midway point of the season.
Other opt-out news: The program isn't confirming whether or not CB TJ Tampa (747 snaps) - a projected second-rounder - will play. On Dec. 24, after Iowa State had arrived in Memphis, HC Matt Campbell, standing in the lobby of the Peabody Hotel, said the following: "He is here. "He will practice. He's been practicing every step of the way."
Injury news: S Malik Verdon (496 snaps) fractured his forearm Week 12 against Texas and is considered questionable to play. HC Matt Campbell did say he has a chance to return. Reserve S Ben Nikkel (267 snaps/69.0 PFF overall grade) also missed the season finale with freshman Drew Surges filling in, so the Cyclones could be thin on their back line.
Coaching News: The last six bowl games HC Matt Campbell has coached in have gone under the total. In eight career bowls, Campbell is 3-5 ATS.
Memphis Tigers
Memphis only had two starters enter the portal. Unfortunately, they both came along the offensive line. RG Carter was Memphis' highest-graded player, per PFF, with an 81.5. Perhaps LT Pounders will be a bit easier to replace. He struggled with a 63.8 PFF grade. OT3 Terrance McClain was qualitatively similar in his looks, garnering a 64.2 PFF grade. But Pounders and McClain are opposites - Pounders is a solid pass blocker who doesn't get a push in the run game, while McClain is poor in pass-pro but strong in the run game.
Injury news: CB Julian Barnett (322 snaps/59.4 PFF overall grade) missed the final game, though he had been relegated to a rotational role in the second half of the year. Backup EDGE Andres Fox (181 snaps/60.8 PFF defensive grade) didn't play in the final two games.
Coaching News: HC Ryan Silverfield is a career 2-1 ATS in bowl games. Silverfield's DC, Matt Barnes, accepted a new job as co-DC and S coach at Mississippi State.
The Handicap
My side number is smack-dab on the Vegas line. I cannot advise a play there.
However, I do see a bit of value on the over.
Memphis was an over machine this fall, with 83.3% of their games going above the total (No. 1 in the nation) and an average over PPG of 9.7 (No. 2).
That makes sense. This is a decidedly skewed team, with the No. 14 SP+ offense and No. 112 SP+ defense. The Tigers are a ghastly No. 128 in tackle rate.
Iowa State's offense woke up in the second half of the season, allowing the Cyclones to finish top-40 in average over PPG.
Iowa State has a solid defense (No. 18 SP+), but it struggles to tackle in space (No. 77 tackle rate), an issue that Memphis could exploit.
The pick: Over 57.5
Cotton Bowl | Arlington, TX
Friday, December 29 | 8:00p | ESPN
Total: 49.0 | ATL: Mizzou -0.5 | ATT: 47.8
Ohio State Buckeyes
With McCord's departure to Syracuse, Ohio State turns to former five-star QB2 Devin Brown (72 snaps) for the Cotton Bowl. QB3 Lincoln Kienholz bumps up to Brown's backup for the game.
In limited action this year, Brown went 12-of-22 for 197 yards and a 2/1 TD/INT. “Not knocking Kyle (McCord), but Devin can move around better,” WR2 Emeka Egbuka said. “He has a knack for extending the play when it’s broken down… He’s got a cannon too.” This will be a return to the field for Brown, who hasn't played since getting injured on a run against Penn State in October. The Buckeyes had several packages in their playbook to take advantage of Brown's mobility.
RB1 TreVeyon Henderson said in the week lead-up to this game that he will play. Henderson has 1,083 yards from scrimmage and 11 rushing TD in nine games this year. But Ohio State's RB depth is officially toast behind him after RB2 Williams left to begin NFL preparations, and RB3 Trayanum and (injured) RB4 Pryor transferred to, respectively, Kentucky and Cincinnati.
WR3 Fleming accumulated 270 yards on 26 receptions this fall. WR Carnell Tate, who has tallied 260 yards and a TD as a true freshman, is in line for more snaps in the bowl.
Other opt-out news: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (649 snaps) is expected to opt-out to begin his preparations for the NFL Draft, though that isn't yet official. In fact, even less than 24 hours before kickoff, Ohio State is having some fun keeping its cards close to the vest. When HC Ryan Day was asked on Dec. 28 if Harrison would play in this game, he said: "We'll know in about 24 hours." One factor leading folks to believe Harrison will not play: He did not participate in the team’s final bowl practice that was visible to the media, on Thursday. Harrison, the Biletnikoff Award winner, had a 67-1211-14 receiving line this season.
Either way - and most fortunately for the Buckeyes - fellow starter WR Emeka Egbuka and CB Denzel Burke, an All-American, both announced on Dec. 12 that they will play in this game. Egbuka and Burke told the media that they have both not yet made up their minds on whether to declare for the draft afterwards or return to campus in 2024.
Starting OG Donovan Jackson and starting DT Tyleik Williams, another All-American, have both also stated that they will play in the bowl game. DE Jack Sawyer (549 snaps), CB Jordan Hancock, and S Josh Proctor (552 snaps) have also said publicly they are playing.
We are also awaiting announcements from TE Cade Stover (581 snaps), LB Tommy Eichenberg (607 snaps), DT Michael Hall Jr. (368 snaps), DE J.T. Tuimoloau (621 snaps). But if there’s one positive sign for the Buckeyes, it’s that each of these guys has been practicing during bowl preparations and is with the team in Arlington.
Injury news: S Lathan Ransom (486 snaps/75.3 cover grade) started every game this season until suffering an injury in Week 9. He has not been able to return to the field and is questionable for the bowl game.
Coaching News: HC Ryan Day is a career 1-4 ATS as an underdog. Whether or not the Buckeyes close as one in this game is going to come entirely down to how many of the potential opt-outs decide to play.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri has avoided significant opt-outs as well as any P5 program playing in a non-CFP game.
Injury news: CB Ennis Rakestraw (466 snaps) is questionable with a groin injury. All-SEC second-team linebacker Ty'Ron Hopper (563 snaps) is also questionable with the ankle injury that cost him the last two games of the regular season. Both are NFL Draft hopefuls, potentially clouding the situation. Of the two, HC Eli Drinkwitz seems far more confident that Hopper will be playing in this game. That would be a welcome development with one starter from that unit, LB Chad Bailey (197 snaps), already OFY. Rakestraw and Kris Abrams-Draine are one of the best CB duos in America - each is holding a Senior Bowl invite. CB3 Dreyden Norwood, who would start in place of Rakestraw if he's injured, is more worker-bee than standout.
Coaching News: HC Eliah Drinkwitz is 2-0 ATS in bowl games.
The Handicap
For full and complete transparency of both my thought process and my system's projections for this game as I type this sentence on Thursday night... both assume that OSU WR Marvin Harrison Jr. will not play, and that TE Cade Stover (581 snaps), LB Tommy Eichenberg (607 snaps), DT Michael Hall Jr. (368 snaps), and DE J.T. Tuimoloau (621 snaps) will.
In that scenario, I see this game as, essentially, a pick 'em.
At the time I bought a Missouri -2.5 ticket earlier this month, I believed Ohio State would have more opt-outs. But unless multiple guys on that latter list of four opt-out in addition to Harrison, I will have made a mistake on that account.
This line is seeing wild movement in the lead-up due to the unknown status of multiple key Buckeyes. My lean remains Missouri - if Harrison isn't playing.
Keep an eye on news out of the Ohio State side on Friday before making your decision if you aren't holding a ticket yet.
The pick: Missouri moneyline
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
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