Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Fenway Bowl | Boston, MA
Thursday, December 28 | 11:00a | ESPN
Total: 49.5 | ATL: SMU -9.9 | ATT: 55.5
SMU Mustangs
To this point, the Ponies have avoided high-profile defections. The injury front is another story...
Injury news: Star QB Preston Stone will miss the bowl game with backup QB Kevin Jennings handling snaps under center against BC. Jennings completed 19-of-33 passes for 203 yards and a 4-to-2 ratio while earning an 82.0 passing grade on the year. Speedy WR Jordan Kerley caught 18-of-31 passes for 319 yards, 17.7 YPC and two touchdowns before sustaining an injury in Week 10 against Rice. He hasn't played since. In the ACC title game against Tulane, WR Jake Bailey started in the slot while Key'Shawn Smith and Romello Brinson played the most snaps on the outside. Starting RT Hyrin White got hurt in Week 11 and hasn't played in the three subsequent contests, with RG Justin Osborne sliding over to RT and allowing zero pressure to Tulane in the AAC Championship Game.
Coaching News: SMU HC Rhett Lashlee, who recently signed a long-term extension, is 0-1 ATS in bowl games. He's 17-8 SU over two seasons at SMU. RB coach Khenon Hall left to take the same post at Baylor. OC/QB Coach Jonathan Brewer will leave for the same role at Duke, it has not been announced if he will coach SMU in the bowl game. Lashlee is the primary play-caller.
Boston College Eagles
RB Pat Garwo is a longtime program stalwart who rushed for 1,048 yards in 2021 and started four of the first five games this year, occurring 266 rushing yards, 5.2 YPC and a respectable 67.0 run grade. However he was injured for the entire second half of the season and lost his starting spot to RB Kyle Robichaux who rushed for 110+ yards in three of BC's last five contests. WR Taji Johnson was a special teams regular who caught one pass, while WR Jaden Williams (12-of-27/183 yards/54.2 rec grade) is replacement level.
OG Mahogany is a top-100 overall prospect in April's draft. He's a three-year starter who was one of college football;s best interior linemen.
LB Shitta Sillah was a reasonable contributor when he saw the field (70.2 defensive grade), but hasn't played since Week 9 and was mostly a part-timer to that point. Slot CB Clinkscales rose up the depth chart in his first season of collegiate action, starting three of the last four games while posting a 69% completion rate with a middling 51.2 cover grade, which speaks volumes about the lack of depth at the position for BC.
Injury news: WR Ryan O'Keefe (204 snaps) and TE George Takacs (421 snaps) were both lost to season-ending injuries, as was starting CB Elijah Jones (524) and S Cole Watson (544 snaps). CB Jalen Cheek (367 snaps) also missed the season finale for BC's paper-thin secondary that allowed 8.3 yards per pass this season (117th in FBS).
Coaching News: This will be the first bowl game of HC Jeff Haffley's career. The Eagles went 6-6 in 2021 and were invited to the Military Bowl to play ECU, but that game was canceled due to COVID-19 protocols with Boston College's roster.
The Handicap
We're very close to the margins on the side. The value, here, is on the total. The market has driven this total down to 47.5. I disagree with that line movement.
Both of these offenses play fast - SMU ranks No. 21 in adjusted tempo, BC ranks No. 37. Both offenses also are top-30 in both avoiding 3-and-outs, and avoiding havoc.
It makes sense that both stay on schedule, because both are run-leaning offenses with efficient ground games.
Boston College's run defense is horrid. SMU's is considerably better - but not as good as its pass defense.
Lastly, both offenses share the tendency of using the run game to open up the possibility of one-on-one deep shots. Each is top-25 in rate of throws that travel 20-plus air yards. And both pass defenses have shown a propensity to give up chunk plays through the air.
The pick: Over 47.5
Pinstripe Bowl | Bronx, NY
Thursday, December 28 | 2:15p | ESPN
Total: 40.5 | ATL: Rutgers -1.0 | ATT: 45.3
Miami (FL) Hurricanes
QB1 Van Dyke battled injuries throughout the regular season. Upon its conclusion, he entered the portal and transferred to Wisconsin. First time starting QB Jacurri Brown takes over and will see his first reps of the 2023 season.
RB Donald Chaney Jr. was a highly -outed recruit, but freshman sensation RB Mark Fletcher's emergence rendered Chaney obsolete.
WR Colbie Young started every game for the Canes catching 47-of-63 passes for 574 yards and five touchdowns to go with his decent 1.74 Y/RR average. The burner is transferring to Georgia. Rising star WR Jacolby George took over as WR1 down the stretch for Miami with 55 recs, 851 yards, 8 TDs and a strong 77.2 receiving grade.
Alabama transfer LG Javion Cohen had a strong final season, allowing one sack, 14 pressures and a 74.3 pass block grade, it's unlikely he plays. He accepted a Senior Bowl invite and is off to the draft process.
DT Leonard Taylor was a force on the interior. He generated 21 pressures and 11 stops with a strong 82.0 PFF pass rush grade for the potential first-rounder, as Taylor is the No. 3 DT in Mel Kiper’s position rankings.
Fourth-year LB Corey Flagg made 48 tackles with 7.0 TFL while starting two of the last three games. WLB K.J. Cloyd (361 snaps/64.8 defensive grade) started six games this year, effectively splitting reps with Flagg and will now have the starting job to himself.
Miami is going to be thin on the back-end with starting S duo Kamren Kinchens and James Williams — the Nos. 1 and 5 safeties on Mel Kiper’s big board, respectively — exiting for the NFL Draft. SS Williams earned an exceptional 85.6 PFF coverage grade while leading the team with 73 tackles. FS Kinchens started 10 games and allowed 28-of-34 targets to be completed (82.4%) for 472 yards while picking off five passes.
Injury news: Starting CB Daryl Porter Jr. went down early in Miami's Week 10 contest at NC State and did not return for the remainder of the regular season. Porter Jr. held opposing receivers to 11 catches on 22 targets for just 108 receiving yards and is a key cog in Miami's No. 31-ranked pass defense. Keep an eye on his playing status.
Coaching News: HC Mario Cristobal is 2-4-1 ATS in seven career bowl games.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
OG Mike Ciafonni played consistent reps through the first five weeks, but has barely seen the field since then. Similar story for OT Missouri, who started four of the first six games at RT before being switched to the left side and logging just 11 snaps over the second half of the year.
Rutgers lost one of their best singular players when CB1 Max Melton announced he would opt-out to begin NFL Draft prep. Melton allowed a 55% completion rate on 44 targets for 252 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. His loss is a major one, with CB2 Robert Longerbeam (49% completion rate/280 yards/one INT) stepping into the top corner role, and CB Eric Rogers (62.3 cover grade/39% completion rate) moving into the starting lineup.
Other opt-out news: Starting RB Kyle Monangai has announced his intention to return to Rutgers for the 2024 season.
Injury news: Starting TE Johnny Langan is scheduled to have season-ending surgery after catching 14-of-21 passes for 121 yards while earning a middling 55.2 PFF offensive grade. TE Shawn Bowman started in his place in Week 13, catching 3-of-4 passes for 18 yards while running 20 routes. Starting LB Tyreem Powell was lost for the season to a hand injury a month ago.
Coaching News: On Dec. 13, HC Greg Schiano signed a new contract extension that runs through the 2030 season. This will be Schiano's eighth bowl game at Rutgers. All other Rutgers HCs across program history combined to reach four bowl games. In his previous seven bowl trips, Schiano went 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS.
The Handicap
Rutgers is down only one key contributor, while Miami has been utterly decimated by opt-outs.
This falls in line with the motivational handicap of this game: Rutgers is a team who views the rare bowl games they qualify for like Super Bowls. Miami believes this game is beneath them.
The Hurricanes will thusly have most of its second-stringers playing against Rutgers' starters. In Rutgers' backyard, the Bronx.
Rutgers has the coaching edge in general in this game. The bowl records of Greg Schiano (5-1-1 ATS) and Mario Cristobal (2-4-1 ATS) in their past seven bowl games calcifies that.
The pick: Rutgers -2.5
Pop-Tarts Bowl | Orlando, FL
Thursday, December 28 | 5:45p | ESPN
Total: 47.5 | ATL: KSU -1.1 | ATT: 51.0
Kansas State Wildcats
QB1 Howard's defection opens the door for QB2 Avery Johnson - one of the highest-ranked recruits to ever sign with K-State - to take over the starting gig beginning with this game. After there were rumors that the former highly regarded four-star recruit could follow OC Collin Klein to Texas A&M - since shot-down - Johnson reaffirmed his commitment to K-State by announcing he was changing his jersey number from No. 5 to No. 2 on Dec. 7.
Johnson has been listed as a co-starter on the depth chart alongside Howard since mid-October when he was heavily-used as a change-of-pace option during the regular season, sparking the offense multiple times. He completed 65.7% of his attempts for 301 yards and three TD, while running for 225 yards and six TD during the regular season.
RB Ward was a valued part of KSU's two-headed RB tandem, turning 124 carries into 643 yards and six touchdowns while posting a very respectable 80.9 PFF run grade. With Ward out of the picture and a true freshman QB entering the starting lineup, you can bet that RB DJ Giddens is in line for a monster workload in this game.
All-Big 12 TE Ben Sinnott concludes a standout season where he caught 49 passes for 676 yards and six touchdowns by opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Sinnott, a first-team All-Big 12 pick in 2023, is the No. 2 FB/H-Back in Mel Kiper’s position rankings.
Sixth-year WR Phillip Brooks, a long-time steady starter, is also opting out to begin his NFL Draft prep. Brooks, who logged a 53-589-5 line in 2023, posted three-consecutive 500-plus receiving-yard seasons. He was also a skilled kick and punt returner.
Other opt-out news: OG Cooper Beebe (870 snaps), a potential Round 1 pick, has not yet announced his intentions.
Injury news: Run-stuffing NT Uso Seumalo (6'3/340) left KSU's Week 12 game against Kansas and was seen on crutches during the team's Week 13 broadcast. LBs Jake Clifton (227 snaps) and Daniel Green (157 snaps) are both out for the season with injuries.
Coaching News: HC Chris Klieman is 1-2 ATS in three career bowl games. KSU OC Collin Klein left after the regular season to take the same post at Texas A&M. Klein previously turned down offers from both Notre Dame and Penn State to take over their offenses. KSU's offense impressed with averages of 446.1 yards and 37.8 points per game this fall.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
QB Morris took over the starting gig in the middle of the season. But he was unable to run away with it, and ultimately had a disagreement with the program about his role heading into next season, leading to his early exit to retain a redshirt in 2023. That development re-inserted veteran QB Brennan Armstrong, the Week 1 starter, into the lineup. Armstrong has played much better since then, in contrast to his struggles in September that got him the hook. Armstrong makes his final collegiate start, here. NC State hands the offensive keys to former Coastal Carolina star QB Grayson McCall in 2024.
TE Toudle didn't catch a pass all season and has transferred down to Western Michigan, while C Cooper lost his starting job in Week 7 and has seen just 13 snaps since then. Starting DT CJ Clark recorded 22 tackles with 4.0 TFL and a 60.7 defensive grade and has committed to Miami. Second-year DT Brandon Cleveland accounted for 23 tackles, 3.5 TFL and 3.0 sacks in just 206 snaps and was objectively a better player than Clark this year.
Star LB Payton Wilson opted out of this game and declared for the NFL Draft. One of the nation's best linebackers, Wilson posted an 88.6 PFF grade with a 90.4 coverage grade this fall.
Coaching News: HC Dave Doeren is 5-3 ATS in eight career bowl games.
The Handicap
My system has a slight lean towards KSU at this number, but I'm going to go against it due to the matchup.
KSU QB2 Avery Johnson is a very exciting prospect. He's dynamic on the ground, but totally unproven as yet through the air. In this game, he's also going to be without KSU's top-two aerial targets.
Almost assuredly, that is going to confine KSU to a predominantly ground-based approach with Johnson and RB DJ Giddens (who will take on increased usage with his platoon mate, RB Ward, out the door).
Unfortunately, that is going to send KSU right into the teeth of NC State's team strength - its elite run defense.
It's true - the Wolfpack are going to miss stud LB Payton Wilson. But of NCSU defenders with 400-or-more snaps, Wilson was No. 4 in run defense grade. Very good, but not irreplaceable in the phase of the game that is going to matter.
Kansas State's defense has been fortunate to avoid dual-threat QBs for most of the season - that'll change against NCSU QB Brennan Armstrong.
When KSU played UCF and Kansas, instead of seeing John Rhys Plumlee, Jalon Daniels, or Jason Bean, KSU faced UCF's QB2 and KU's QB3 (for whatever it's worth, KSU also faced Texas' QB2, TCU's QB2, and Texas Tech's QB3).
KSU's defense ranked a decent SP+ No. 39 in the regular season. But I think that unit is flattered by the luck of the draw it got with the procession of backup QBs it faced. KSU ranks dead-last in the FBS in tackle rate. NC State's entire offensive philosophy revolves around forcing you to tackle in space.
The pick: NCSU +2.5
Alamo Bowl | San Antonio, TX
Thursday, December 28 | 9:15p | ESPN
Total: 62.5 | ATL: Arizona -4.8 | ATT: 57.8
Arizona Wildcats
LT Jordan Morgan is a top-75 overall prospect in this upcoming draft class. Not surprisingly, he's skipping this game. Morgan allowed just two sacks in 459 pass reps and received a sensational 89.9 pass block grade from PFF.
LB Heimuli started three of the first five games, but played a mere 29 reps over the last seven contests. Same thing for S Isaiah Taylor who started two of the first three games before riding the bench over the second half.
Other opt-out news: WR Jacob Cowing accepted a Senior Bowl invitation and could follow Morgan in opting-out.
Injury news: Starting S Martell Irby (77.1 PFF defensive grade) was injured in Week 11 against Colorado and failed to record a snap over the final two weeks. He apparently dressed for the finale, but was ultimately held out as a precaution which is a good sign for his bowl game availability. RB DJ Williams (147 snaps) sustained a knee injury in Week 12 and is questionable to play.
Coaching News: HC Jedd Fisch failed to cover in his only previous bowl game as an HC. Quick! Trivia time! Name that game... (waits)…. it was the 2017 Cactus Bowl, back when Fisch was running out the string as UCLA's interim HC. The Bruins lost 35-17 to Kansas State.
Oklahoma Sooners
Star QB1 Dillon Gabriel leaves to take over the starting quarterback job at Oregon. Gabriel is a star, and a big loss. The Sooners do, however, have a very intriguing five-star freshman understudy to unbox against the Wildcats.
QB2 Jackson Arnold, the former Elite 11 winner, completed 75% of his 24 passes this year. Recruiting analysts rave about his upside. But obviously, we don't entirely know what we're going to get until he steps on the field against Arizona.
RBs Majors and Walker had more prominent roles early in the season, but sophomore RB Gabe Sawchuk took over the lead back role leaving little opportunity for the two established vets.
RT Tyler Guyton, a potential top-50 pick, opted out to begin his draft preparation. He checks in as Mel Kiper’s No. 7 draft-eligible OT, but has the potential to rise up the ranks after athletic testing.
C Andrew Raym is a well-regarded interior lineman who is following Guyton's lead in opting out of the bowl. Raym was a three-year stalwart starter who tallied 2,196 snaps over his Sooner career despite allowing 16 pressures in 2023.
Freshman starting LG Cayden Green gave up 12 pressures and zero sacks which earned him a 71.4 pass block grade. He will anchor the interior of the Missouri offensive line next year.
RT Jacob Sexton started the last three games in place of an injured Guyton so he will resume that role despite allowing a team-worst 4.9% pressure rate. Caleb Shaffer, who is a strong pass protector, but his 3.3% blown run-block rate is the second-worst mark on the team. A proven pass pro specialist who has allowed just one sack in 811 career snaps, Troy Everett slides over from guard to start at center.
S Key Lawrence is the lone "key" - sorry - defensive departure, having played 1,291 snaps over his three-year Oklahoma career. He recorded 44 tackles with three PBU and two interceptions while earning a 66.5 defensive grade. He will be replaced at safety by Reggie Pearson (364 snaps/55.9 defensive grade).
Other opt-out news: OU got some good news with star All-Big 12 LB Danny Stutsman (654 snaps) and standout S Billy Bowman (713 snaps) announcing their return to the program.
Injury news: WR Andrel Anthony (290 snaps) tore up his knee in Week 6 and, unfortunately won't be back until 2024. Oklahoma’s deep-passing game wasn’t as effective with its downtown-guy, Anthony, on the shelf.
Coaching News: HC Brent Venables covered in his first bowl game last year, a narrow 35-32 loss to Florida State. It was an impressive showing by the Sooners, who overcame opt-outs and a poor 6-6 regular season to play even with a team that finished 10-3 last year and is 13-0 in 2023. Oklahoma offensive analyst Phil Loadholt left to become Coach Prime's new OL coach at Colorado. Two-year OC Jeff Lebby left to become the HC of Mississippi State. He is being succeeded by former North Texas HC Seth Littrell, who spent 2023 as an offensive analyst for the Sooners who are opting to promote from within. OU analyst Phil Loadholt was hired as Colorado's new OL coach.
The Handicap
The ascending Arizona Wildcats only had one loss of note - LT Jordan Morgan.
Oklahoma got hit hard by opt-outs on the offensive side of the ball. A freshman quarterback is going to be playing behind a makeshift offensive line with three new starters (one of the top backups is out as well).
Beyond that, Oklahoma has two heavily-used rotational backs out. Depreciation of skill talent matters, here, because the Sooners had less WR talent this year than they've had in several seasons.
Arizona, a program on the rise, rides in on a six-game win streak. The Wildcats have a top-15 SP+ offense that is dangerous both through the air and on the ground.
OU's defense isn't going to be able to stop it, and it's asking a lot for OU QB2 Jackson Arnold to to return fire under these circumstances.
The pick: Arizona -2.5
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
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