Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Here's a look at the spreads and totals for today's College Football Bowl Games, along with my custom projections and handicaps. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Quick Lane Bowl | Detroit, MI
Tuesday, December 26 | 2:00p | ESPN
Total: 39.5 | ATL: Minnesota -5.7 | ATT: 39.4
The transition from Tanner Morgan-to-Athan Kaliakmanis was an accepted failure, with QB1 Kaliakmanis entering the transfer portal earlier this month. Gophers HC PJ Fleck announced that fifth-year QB2 Cole Kramer will draw the start in his place. Kramer has attempted a mere 14 career passes, accruing 103 passing yards and a 2/2 TD/INT rate. Since QB3 Drew Viotto has already left for Eastern Michigan, the Gophers' backup in this game will be true freshman walk-on QB4 Max Shikenjanski. Minnesota has no other active QB on the roster.
Other opt-out news: Star S Tyler Nubin is an elite defender who owns a sensational 90.3 PFF defensive grade and 90.7 cover grade this season. He allowed a microscopic 5-of-19 targets to be completed for just 44 receiving yards all season. A top-50 NFL Draft prospect, Nabin should probably turn the page to NFL Combine training.
Injury news: Freshman RB Darius Taylor received one carry in Minnesota's Week 1 contest vs. Nebraska then proceeded to rip off three-straight games with at least 138+ yards and a touchdown before getting injured in Week 4 at Northwestern. He returned Week 8 at Iowa, rushing 16 times for 59 yards, but was reinjured and missed the remainder of the regular season. His presence in the lineup would be a major difference maker for the Gophers' listless offense that ranks 121st in EPA/Play. I can report that while Taylor hasn't been cleared to return as of this writing, he fully intends to play assuming he is - and the anticipation is that he will be in advance of this game. This game is being played in Taylor's hometown of Detroit, a fact that isn't lost on him. Taylor recently publicly announced his intention to return to the Gophers in 2024. If he plays, he will by margin be Minnesota's most valuable offensive player against Bowling Green. If he doesn't, Minnesota's RB depth will be a horror show.
S Darius Green started 11 games with 51 tackles, but missed the season finale against Wisconsin. MLB1 Maverick Baranowski (67.5 PFF overall grade/52 tackles) hasn't seen the field since Week 11. Both could potentially return with the added rest afforded by the bowl's schedule.
Coaching News: TE coach Andrew Sowder resigned. DC Joe Rossi left to become Michigan. I'm told the team didn't expect him to leave, and that Rossi's departure for what some viewed as a lateral move sent a shockwave through the locker room. Gophers HC PJ Fleck is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four-career bowl games.
Bowling Green Falcons
RB Ta'Ron Keith was a potent receiving weapon out of the backfield, reeling in 44-of-59 passes for 457 yards and a pristine 2.37 yards per route average to go with a superb 85.8 PFF rushing grade. CB Jalen Huskey was their top cover corner, logging 624 snaps while earning an impressive 83.5 PFF overall defensive grade and 46.6 NFL Passer Rating allowed when targeted.
Injury news: Starting S Trent Simms was injured Week 10 against Ball State and missed the rest of the regular season as a result. He has played 1,148 snaps while making 95 tackles over the last two years with a respectable 71.9 overall defensive grade and 77.5 tackling grade. His return would be a big boost. Particularly to a secondary that will already be playing without CB1 Huskey.
Coaching News: HC Scot Loeffler was upset by New Mexico State last season as a three-point favorite in his only career bowl game.
The Handicap
Had referees not overturned Iowa Cooper Dejean's TD return at the end of the Minnesota-Iowa game, the Gophers would have finished 4-8. Instead, they got the only bowl bid awarded to a 5-7 team due to their APR.
Conventional thinking says that between Minnesota not deserving to play in this game, and having to take on a lowly G5 team besides, that the Gophers will be at a severe motivation disadvantage.
I disagree with that, and am thus laying the points with the Gophers.
The most embarrassing loss of the HC PJ Fleck era was the 14-10 stunner at home in 2021 to these Bowling Green Falcons. He's been reminded of that loss for two years running. Coming off the disappointing 2023 regular season, Fleck is feeling soft heat around the Twin Cities.
Not exactly on the hot-seat, but certainly hearing the grumbling from fans. If Minnesota loses to Bowling Green again, this time to finish 5-8, Fleck, a proud man, knows that a percentage of the fanbase is going to turn on him for good. Is that fair? No. Is that reality? Yes.
Fleck's players also appear to be motivated. It would be understood if RB Taylor and S Nubin opted-out of this game. Instead, both may play.
The Gophers have enormous edges in this matchup both on defense and special teams. Minnesota's offense isn't good. But it can run the ball. That will particularly be the case if Taylor plays.
Bowling Green's defensive strength is its pass defense (No. 22 success rate). But Minnesota is going to avoid the air as much as they can. And Bowling Green did have multiple key defections in the pass-rushing and secondary departments. Minnesota's run game should be able to nick away at BGU's No. 94-ranked run defense in terms of success rate.
The pick: Minnesota -3.5
First Responder Bowl | Dallas, TX
Tuesday, December 26 | 5:30p | ESPN
Total: 59.5 | ATL: TSU -3.6 | ATT: 62.9
Texas State Bobcats
Nothing to see here. Hill struggled with injuries this season and watched new RB1 Ismail Mahdi run away with the job, leading to his exit.
Other opt-out news: QB1 TJ Finley announced he will play in this game and make a decision about his future afterwards.
Injury news: The Bobcats have three starters who are unofficially considered questionable for this game with undisclosed injuries: WR Joey Hobert (579 snaps), LG Dorion Strawn (727 snaps), and DE Chance Main (285 snaps).
Hobert is easily the team's best receiver. He missed two games this season, including the finale, with injury. If he's out, Ashtyn Hawkins and Kole Wilson, decent starters but not standouts, will be heavily featured. WR Drew Donley (210 snaps) started the first five games but has been sidelined since then with an undisclosed injury and is presumed OFY. Pint-sized slot WR Chris Dawn Jr. saw starter snaps the last two games, but didn't do much with them.
LG Stawn is solid in pass-pro but doesn't generate much push in the run game. It's a downgrade to his backup, but not an enormous one. That last sentence also applies to Main, but that's more because Texas State has good EDGE depth. Main is the team's best run defender on the EDGE, but the team's bench has multiple pass-rushing options that have proven more disruptive in that phase.
Coaching News: This is the first career bowl game for HC GJ Kinne.
Rice Owls
QB1 Daniels retired from football due to persistent concussion issues. He intends to begin his coaching career. QB2 AJ Padgett, who started the last three games, is likely to get the call again. This is a legitimate downgrade. Padgett is greatly flattered by his career 12/4 TD/INT rate. Over that span, PFF charted him with three more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. If Rice is forced to chase from behind, things could get hairy.
Injury news: Sidelined since Week 6, LB Chris Conti (359 snaps) is unofficially considered doubtful to play.
Coaching News: This will be HC Mike Bloomgren's second bowl game. In his first, last year, Rice lost both SU and ATS.
The Handicap
Both of these teams are led by their offenses. Both defenses are rancid. Rice's defense ranks No. 107 SP+, Texas State's ranks No. 114.
I lean Texas State on the side. But the cleaner angle to me is the over.
Rice has an explosive run game and an efficient pass game. Texas State regularly allows explosive runs and gets lit up by passing efficiency.
Texas State's offense has similar qualitative leanings to Rice, just more pronounced. Rice's defense is similarly poor at defending the precise things TSU thrives in.
The pick: Over 59.5
Guaranteed Rate Bowl | Phoenix, AZ
Tuesday, December 26 | 9:00p | ESPN
Total: 67.5 | ATL: KU -13.9 | ATT: 69.2
Kansas Jayhawks
LT Puni was a revelation after transferring up from FCS Tennessee Tech in 2022. A 12-game at left tackle in 2023, Puni earned first-team All-Big 12 honors. He’s projected as a mid-round pick. In Puni’s pace, KU is giving freshman Calvin Clements (11 snaps) his first-career start.
There were mixed reports on whether EDGE Booker would play in this game. HC Lance Leipold confirmed on Dec. 24 that Booked didn’t travel with KU to Phoenix and will, indeed, not play in the game.
Booker was another portal success story. He spent only one year at KU after transferring over from Minnesota. Booker was a heavily-used situational pass-rusher, finishing the season with 12 TFL and eight sacks. Booker was named the Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year. KU always aggressively rotates at the EDGE position with a pool of players — that rotation will be cut down by one, with more snaps for everyone else.
Other opt-out news: TE Will Huggins (18 snaps) will be active for the Bowl game despite being in the portal.
Injury news: Veteran starting RT Bryce Cabeldue has logged 2,324 snaps over his four seasons at KU, but was forced to miss Kansas' season finale'. OG Ar'maj Reed-Adams kicked over to RT in Cabeldue's absence, and would likely do so again if Cabeldue is unable to go in the bowl game. To complicate matters, starting LG Michael Ford exited their last game against Cincinnati after 38 snaps. Ford is listed as starting LG on the bowl depth chart, while Cabeldue and Reed-Adams are listed as co-starters at RT. However, as of Dec. 24, the Jayhawks are not directly addressing whether or not Cabeldue will be healthy enough to play.
Coaching News: HC Lance Leipold is 5-1 ATS in six-career bowl games. Leipold's long-time OC, Andy Kotelnicki, left to accept the same post at Penn State. KU promoted QB coach Jim Zebrowski to co-OC in a corresponding move. But just for this game. The Jayhawks hired former Baylor OC Jeff Grimes to take over the offense following the bowl.
UNLV Rebels
There were false reports after the regular season that QB1 Jayden Maiava (789 snaps) had entered the portal, but the program swiftly shot down those rumors. Maiava will start, backup up by QB2 Doug Brumfield.
EDGE Carter, who came to UNLV after two years with LSU, will head to the portal after only being used situationally in his only campaign in Las Vegas.
Injury news: Both starting safeties, Jett Elad and Cameren Jenkins, missed the majority of the Mountain West Conference Championship Game against Boise State, which led to multiple big plays over the top from the Broncos. Elad was named a finalist for the Cornish Award given to the nation's top Canadian born player, while Jenkins played 381 defensive snaps with a 77.2 PFF tackling grade as UNLV's strong safety.
Coaching News: HC Barry Odom is 0-2 ATS in two career bowl games. After rumors that both could leave for other jobs, Odom and OC Brennan Marion remain in their current roles. Marion interviewed for the HC jobs at San Diego State and UTEP - both ultimately hired other candidates. Odom perhaps signaled his intentions to stay when he picked up a commitment from his son, QB Garyt Odom, a Class of 2025 recruit.
The Handicap
The only defense to hold UNLV below 20 points this fall was Michigan's. Kansas' almost assuredly won't. UNLV has one of the best rushing attacks in the G5. KU's run defense is poor.
On the other side, UNLV's No. 98 SP+ defense has no chance to slow down Kansas' No. 23 SP+ offense. In four games against FBS defenses ranked No. 75 SP+ or lower, the Jayhawks averaged 37.5 PPG.
I'm seeing a Kansas shootout win in the 45-31 range. We're close to the margins on the side. We're going over.
The pick: Over 67.5
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