We’ve finally arrived at the end of the road. There’s only one game left. On Monday, we’ll have a new college football national champion. Here's a look at the spreads and totals for Monday’s College Football Bowl National Championship matchup between Michigan and Washington, along with my custom projections and handicaps.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
We’ve finally arrived at the end of the road. There’s only one game left. On Monday, we’ll have a new college football national champion. Here's a look at the spreads and totals for Monday’s College Football Bowl National Championship matchup between Michigan and Washington, along with my custom projections and handicaps.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Monday, January 8 | 7:30p CST | ESPN
Total: 55.5 | ATL: Michigan -9.4 | ATT: 53.7
Michigan Wolverines
Injury news: Stud RG Zak Zinter, a unanimous All-American, suffered a season-ending broken tibia and fibula against Ohio State. Zinter (649 reps) was sporting a 76.6 PFF overall grade at the time of his injury. He was regarded as one of the nation's best interior offensive linemen.
You can’t soften that blow, but the following is an objective fact: Michigan has the nation’s deepest offensive line. In the preseason, Senior Bowl czar Jim Nagy tweeted that eight different Wolverine offensive linemen were on the game’s watchlist. In other words, three backups were intriguing draft-eligible prospects. This manifested immediately, when ballyhooed Arizona State transfer OT LaDarius Henderson failed to win a starting job out of camp. He was upset by Karsen Barnhart. But Henderson had taken over that post by the end of September, kicking Barnhart to RT. When Zinter went down, bringing this full circle, Michigan summoned 325-pounder OT Trente Jones to take over at OT, kicking Barnhart to RG to plug Zinter’s hole.
Jones has posted a sterling 86.3 PFF blocking grade. The 6-foot-5, 315-pound Barnhart is a bit of a tweener, in that at tackle he’s a strong run-blocker who can hurt you in pass-pro, and at guard, he’s been exceptional in pass-pro in a small sample without the same movement in the run game against bigger interior defenders.
Coaching News: After covering his first three bowl games — all at Stanford — HC Jim Harbaugh had been on an 0-6 SU and ATS streak prior to beating (and covering over) Alabama on Monday. The Wolverines fired LB coach Chris Partridge during the regular season.
Washington Huskies
Other opt-out news: QB2 Dylan Morris (53 snaps) is in the transfer portal, but he will stay with the team through the CFP to back up QB1 Michael Penix Jr.
Injury news: RB Dillon Johnson left Monday's semifinal win over Texas with a leg injury with just under one minute left to play. Johnson had 21 carries for 49 yards and two TD against the Longhorns prior to getting hurt.
UW OC Ryan Grubb said on Tuesday that the team expects Johnson to play in the national title game. "We do expect him to play. X-rays that were taken at the Superdome were negative." The All-Pac 12 second-teamer had run for 1,113 yards and 14 TD entering the game. Johnson has been playing hurt for more than a month now. He played the last three games of the season with a foot injury.
Washington had better hope that Johnson indeed can gut it out again. The Huskies are thin at RB depth at the moment. Backup RB Sam Adams II was inactive for the semifinals and in street clothes due to an injury. Backup RB Richard Newton has been plagued with bothersome knee issues all season, one reason he's mostly only seen special teams duties (five carries).
Remaining on the depth chart for Washington at the position are young speedster Tybo Rogers, sophomore Will Nixon, and KR Daniyel Ngata.
Standout CB1 Jabbar Muhammad was also shaken up near the end of the game while breaking up a pass in the end zone. Muhammad will reportedly be fine for Monday.
Backup OC Landen Hatchett (120 snaps) suffered a season-ending knee injury in practices leading up to the game against Texas. He appeared in nine games this season.
Coaching News: With last Monday’s upset win over Texas, HC Kalen DeBeor improved to 5-0 SU at Washington as an underdog and 8-1 ATS over his career. He’s now 2-0 SU and ATS in bowl games.
The Handicap
This is a bad matchup for Washington.
The Huskies' Achilles heel is its rancid run defense (No. 121 success rate, No. 126 stuff rate). Michigan's greatest strength is its power run game (No. 36 success rate, No. 5 stuff rate).
That's about as bad-on-good as matchups get. The Huskies' defensive ethos out of their 4-2-5 base is to keep the ball in front of them and take away explosive plays. They sacrifice speed for power in terms of personnel, and run defense and efficiency for pass defense and explosion in terms of overall strategy. Coming from the spread-heavy, pass-happy Pac-12, this makes all the sense in the world.
But this is a truly horrific schematic fit against Michigan's power-based offense. The Wolverines love to shift, vary alignments, and swap out personnel to gain advantages in the run game. They use unbalanced alignments to win the angle game against defensive fronts.
In this game, the Wolverines can stay in their normal base offense to mercilessly torment Washington. Washington's undermanned front has no chance of holding up.
And that's before we get to superstar RB Blake Corum, in contention to be RB1 in April's draft. Corum is licking his chops at the thought of going up against a Washington defense that ranks No. 132 - second-to-last in the FBS!! - in tackle success rate. I'm all over Corum in the prop market on Monday (all my prop picks are at the bottom).
Michigan isn't likely to get into third-and-long situations often on Monday night. But when it does, the Wolverines have the advantage in this phase as well. Washington's defense has been strong in third-and-long scenarios - Michigan's offense has been better.
In fact, the Wolverines are an elite No. 2 in third-and-long success rate. This is because Wolverines QB JJ McCarthy is 33-of-44 (75%) for 526 yards with 26 first downs or TD when it’s 3rd-and-7 or longer. It is exceedingly difficult to get Michigan off the field, and the numbers suggest Washington is not going to be able to.
On the other side of the ball, Washington is assuredly going to see fewer possessions in this game than it normal does due to Michigan's projected success on the ground and accompanying time of possession advantage. Michigan ranks No. 11 in the FBS in average time of possession when excluding OT.
For Washington wo win, QB Michael Penix Jr. is going to have to be utterly dominant on Monday night. Because he was against Texas - throwing for 430 yards and two TD - it's easy to assume he might be again. I'm not so sure about that.
Michigan's pass defense is as good as it gets. If Michigan's run game is the trump card on the other side of the ball, the Wolverines' pass defense could be the equalizer, perhaps good enough to battle Washington's high-flying aerial attack to a draw.
Last Monday against Alabama, Michigan dominated in this phase, putting QB Jalen Milroe into a blender. Michigan pulled off an extremely rare trick, both penning Milroe into the pocket and putting an enormous amount of heat on him - ultimately sacking Milroe six times, while holding him to 116 yards passing and zero TD.
Michigan throws every opponent's passing game into the trash. The Wolverines' defense ranks No. 4 in passing success rate, No. 35 in marginal explosiveness, and No. 10 in completion rate against.
You can throw Penix off by moving him off his spot - he doesn't throw well on the run. But it's extremely difficult to sack him, in large part because he sees the field well and has a lightning-quick release. Penix has been sacked just 11 times this season.
Last week, Penix befuddled a Texas pass rush that came in averaging 2.5 sacks per game. In the lead-up to the game, Texas talked extensively about how important it was to put pressure on Penix.
But over four quarters last Monday, the Longhorns had zero quarterback hurries and zero sacks. Texas never got close to Penix as he surgically sliced and diced them. (Of course, and perhaps the key differentiator here - Penix was throwing into a mediocre Texas secondary that was affording plenty of immediate separation). Washington's receiving corps was incredible, dropping only one pass all night.
Washington's Penix-led passing game - No. 5 success rate - is obviously elite. Penix - a surefire top-50 pick, and a potential Round 1 pick - throws to three future NFL receivers, including a potential top-10 pick in WR Rome Odunze. The Huskies are a handful for any pass defense. But they are not impossible to stop.
Against 3-9 Arizona State, for instance, Washington only won 15-7. Oregon State held Washington to 22, while 5-7 Wazzu held Washington to 24. The ASU game was the true outlier of Penix's season. Here's what the aggressive Sun Devils defense did: They got after Penix.
ASU logged 14 pressures on 43 dropbacks and held Penix to a season-low 2.40 average time to throw on dropbacks. Penix managed to avoid being sacked - he has that laser-quick release, and a mandate to not get his offense dropped behind the sticks. But he was easily held to his lowest PFF game grade (48.0) and NFL passer rating (63.1) of the season.
In clean pockets, Penix posted a PFF grade of 93.1 and a 30/6 TD/INT rate while completing 73.6% of his passes. Under pressure, he posted a 70.3 PFF grade and a 5/3 TD/INT rate while completing 45.1% of his passes.
Beyond Michigan having an elite pass defense, it also has a matchup advantage in specific way it defends the pass. Michigan's NFL-like scheme deploys heavy zone coverage. In fact, the Wolverines run man on only 27.4% of snaps - No. 110 in the nation.
Why that's relevant is Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. is far more explosive against man coverage than zone. Penix is averaging 11.9 AY/A against man compared to 9.1 AY/A against zone. This makes sense. What CB has three corners who can man-up WRs Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja'Lynn Polk play-in and play-out? It takes a village.
Penix and crew are going to see more third-and-longs than McCarthy, in part because Washington is going to struggle to get its ground game going here. RB Dillon Johnson is badly banged-up, and the depth behind him is shoddy. Meanwhile, Michigan's run defense is just as elite as its pass defense - No. 3 success rate, No. 4 marginal explosiveness.
The potential saving grace for Washington is that Penix and Odunze have been out-of-this-world special in need-to-have-it moments this fall. Per ESPN's Bill Connelly, Penix completed 19-of-21 passes for 333 yards to Odunze this year when Washington's win probability was under 50%. What in the world?
Michigan's defense, of course, is money itself in money situations - No. 11 in third-and-long success rate, No. 2 in points per scoring opportunity, and No. 5 in redzone TD rate. Last Monday against Alabama, the Wolverine defense constricted like a python with the game on the line. Over the final 14 minutes of regulation and into the OT frame, Michigan's defense only surrendered a 52-yard field goal.
Michigan ended up beating Alabama 27-20 in a game that never should have reached overtime. The Wolverines controlled regulation, but uncharacteristic special teams miscues on the Michigan side alone ended up gifting 11 points to the Crimson Tide in regulation.
That included an early muffed punt that Alabama recovered in Michigan territory and subsequently cashed into a TD, a botched-snap on a Michigan XP attempt, and a missed Michigan FG. Beyond that, Michigan's punt returners had four other returns where they likely squandered field position by making the incorrect decision to either field the punt or let it go.
In addition, in regulation, Alabama made two FGs from 50-plus, juicing the Tide's enormous in-game advantage in this phase. The game wouldn't have been close without it.
But here's the thing: Michigan does not have a special teams problem. The Wolverines have SP+'s No. 7 special teams unit, even after Monday's fiasco. If the Wolverines clean up the special teams miscues from the Alabama game and simply play as they have been playing on both offense and defense against Washington - the Huskies are in big, big trouble.
I like the under in addition to the Michigan side. While the books seemed to have dropped a sound number at Michigan -4.5 - it hasn't budged - the market has pushed the total from its 55.5 open to 56.5 as of this typing. The reason I have waited to bet the total is I anticipated that movement. I will not be buying my under ticket until closer to gameday, when I can get the best number to the under that I possibly can.
This game will be played at an extremely slow pace. Washington plays at the No. 111 adjusted tempo, while Michigan plays at the No. 130 adjusted tempo. With Michigan's run game ruling the day, you know, in addition, that the clock is going to be running whenever the Wolverines possess the ball. And Michigan's pass defense - and its overall elite defense - is going to slow down Washington's offense enough to keep us under the total.
The picks: Michigan -4.5, Under 56.5
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:
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