Here's a look at College Football Week 11 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Here's a look at College Football Week 11 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Best College Football Week 11 Bets
2023: 80-77-4 (51.0%)
2014-2022: 815-704-21 (53.6%) ATS
Note: In the table below, ATL ("Adjusted Thor Line") is my system's projected spread, and ATT ("Adjusted Thor Total") is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective - a negative number indicates the home team is favored.
My bets below were all locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week. My record is also tracked in the app. To get my bets the second I make them, download the BettingPros app, follow me at BettingPros.com/thor, and turn on notifications.
| Away | Home | Vegas Spread | ATL | Vegas Total | ATT | Day |
| Central Michigan | Western Michigan | -3.0 | -3.9 | 58.0 | 61.5 | Tuesday |
| Ball St. | Northern Illinois | -9.0 | -6.9 | 43.5 | 41.2 | Tuesday |
| Ohio | Buffalo | 9.0 | 5 | 45.0 | 45.5 | Tuesday |
| Akron | Miami (OH) | -17.0 | -17.7 | 37.5 | 43.9 | Wednesday |
| Bowling Green | Kent St. | 11.0 | 8.2 | 41.5 | 43.4 | Wednesday |
| Eastern Michigan | Toledo | -20.0 | -19.5 | 45.0 | 44.5 | Wednesday |
| Southern Miss | Louisiana | -10.0 | -11.1 | 53.0 | 64.8 | Thursday |
| Virginia | Louisville | -20.5 | -21.7 | 50.5 | 57 | Thursday |
| North Texas | SMU | -17.0 | -20.6 | 67.5 | 76.2 | Friday |
| Wyoming | UNLV | -5.5 | -7.7 | 50.5 | 58.3 | Friday |
| Vanderbilt | South Carolina | -14.0 | -12.7 | 58.0 | 60.7 | Saturday |
| Alabama | Kentucky | 10.5 | 8.6 | 47.0 | 53.4 | Saturday |
| Michigan | Penn St. | 4.5 | 3.3 | 45.0 | 63.6 | Saturday |
| Maryland | Nebraska | 2.0 | 5.2 | 44.0 | 49.1 | Saturday |
| Indiana | Illinois | -6.5 | -9 | 44.0 | 49.5 | Saturday |
| Tulsa | Tulane | -23.5 | -21.3 | 53.5 | 48.8 | Saturday |
| Temple | South Florida | -7.0 | -4.9 | 68.0 | 65.4 | Saturday |
| Georgia Tech | Clemson | -14.5 | -15.1 | 55.5 | 65.1 | Saturday |
| Texas Tech | Kansas | -3.5 | -0.9 | 62.0 | 72.9 | Saturday |
| Virginia Tech | Boston College | 1.5 | 2.8 | 49.0 | 55.9 | Saturday |
| Florida | LSU | -13.5 | -11.9 | 63.5 | 77.3 | Saturday |
| Texas | TCU | 10.0 | 9.9 | 53.5 | 51.7 | Saturday |
| Miami (FL) | Florida St. | -14.5 | -14.3 | 51.0 | 69.7 | Saturday |
| Ole Miss | Georgia | -10.5 | -9.2 | 58.5 | 73.1 | Saturday |
| Old Dominion | Liberty | -13.5 | -16.8 | 59.0 | 58.2 | Saturday |
| Tennessee | Missouri | 1.5 | 0.7 | 58.5 | 62 | Saturday |
| Appalachian St. | Georgia St. | -2.0 | -3.3 | 61.5 | 68.8 | Saturday |
| Arizona | Colorado | 10.0 | 11.8 | 54.5 | 63.9 | Saturday |
| Connecticut | James Madison | -25.0 | -24 | 48.5 | 44.7 | Saturday |
| Memphis | Charlotte | 9.5 | 14.4 | 51.5 | 50 | Saturday |
| Troy | Louisiana-Monroe | 21.5 | 22.3 | 45.5 | 39.6 | Saturday |
| North Carolina St. | Wake Forest | 2.5 | -0.8 | 42.5 | 51.9 | Saturday |
| Sam Houston | Louisiana Tech | -7.5 | -7 | 48.5 | 45.6 | Saturday |
| Nevada | Utah St. | -16.5 | -13.7 | 56.0 | 57.1 | Saturday |
| Baylor | Kansas St. | -20.5 | -21.5 | 55.0 | 57.7 | Saturday |
| Utah | Washington | -9.5 | -12.1 | 50.0 | 50 | Saturday |
| UAB | Navy | 2.5 | -0.9 | 54.5 | 47.4 | Saturday |
| Northwestern | Wisconsin | -10.0 | -10.2 | 42.0 | 50.5 | Saturday |
| Oklahoma St. | UCF | 2.5 | -3.1 | 65.0 | 74.2 | Saturday |
| Minnesota | Purdue | -1.0 | -0.3 | 46.5 | 59.2 | Saturday |
| Texas St. | Coastal Carolina | 2.0 | 3.3 | 57.5 | 56.1 | Saturday |
| Pittsburgh | Syracuse | 3.0 | 4.5 | 37.5 | 49.2 | Saturday |
| Rutgers | Iowa | -1.5 | -0.9 | 28.5 | 35.9 | Saturday |
| Florida International | Middle Tennessee | -10.5 | -9.9 | 52.5 | 56 | Saturday |
| New Mexico St. | Western Kentucky | -4.5 | -1.9 | 56.0 | 54.2 | Saturday |
| East Carolina | Florida Atlantic | -7.5 | -5.7 | 44.5 | 44.3 | Saturday |
| Auburn | Arkansas | -2.5 | -3.6 | 48.5 | 49.9 | Saturday |
| Washington St. | California | -1.5 | -1.7 | 59.5 | 81.1 | Saturday |
| Arkansas St. | South Alabama | -11.5 | -11 | 55.0 | 60.5 | Saturday |
| Stanford | Oregon St. | -20.5 | -25.8 | 54.5 | 63.3 | Saturday |
| Cincinnati | Houston | -2.5 | -1.9 | 54.5 | 62.7 | Saturday |
| West Virginia | Oklahoma | -13.0 | -13.3 | 58.0 | 62.3 | Saturday |
| Georgia Southern | Marshall | 2.5 | 0.2 | 56.5 | 64.5 | Saturday |
| San Diego St. | Colorado St. | -3.5 | -1.4 | 47.5 | 51.6 | Saturday |
| Rice | UTSA | -14.5 | -13.3 | 58.5 | 63.5 | Saturday |
| Michigan St. | Ohio St. | -31.5 | -30.1 | 47.0 | 42.9 | Saturday |
| Mississippi St. | Texas A&M | -18.5 | -13.9 | 43.0 | 53.3 | Saturday |
| Duke | North Carolina | -14.5 | -10 | 50.5 | 59.2 | Saturday |
| Arizona St. | UCLA | -18.0 | -17.4 | 44.0 | 38.3 | Saturday |
| New Mexico | Boise St. | -26.0 | -18.1 | 60.5 | 68.2 | Saturday |
| Iowa St. | Brigham Young | 8.0 | 7.6 | 41.5 | 55.6 | Saturday |
| Fresno St. | San Jose St. | -0.5 | 1.4 | 56.0 | 59.4 | Saturday |
| USC | Oregon | -15.0 | -13.4 | 73.5 | 82.8 | Saturday |
| Air Force | Hawai’i | 19.0 | 19.9 | 47.0 | 53 | Saturday |
UNLV (-5.5) vs Wyoming (Friday)
ATL: UNLV -7.7
Wyoming has been awesome at home (6-0) and bad on the road (0-3 with three seven-plus-point losses).
Now the Cowboys head to Vegas on a marquee Friday night game to take on the upstart 7-2 Rebels, who haven't lost to a team outside the SP+ top-50.
UNLV also matches up very well, here. UNLV has a very good run defense. Its weakness on that side of the ball is giving up too many explosive passes. Wyoming runs the ball at a top-25 rate, and the Cowboys rank No. 123 in passing explosion.
On the other side of the ball, UNLV's renaissance has been led by OC Brennan Marion's Go-Go offense, an up-tempo, run-heavy scheme. Wyoming has a solid pass defense, but it struggles to defend the run.
The pick: UNLV -5.5
Kentucky (+10.5) vs. Alabama
ATL: Bama -8.6
This is a letdown spot for Alabama, coming off a big 42-28 win against LSU.
Alabama played well in that game, but got off easy when LSU QB Jayden Daniels was injured early in the fourth quarter. LSU had the ball nearing midfield when Daniels got rocked by Dallas Turner, a hit that arguably should have been called targeting. Daniels was removed from the game, and no more points were scored on either side.
Kentucky matches up extremely well against this Alabama team. The Wildcats have a very good run defense, and their zone-heavy coverage scheme erases the deep sector of the field, forcing opposing passing attacks to beat it by nicking away at open pockets in the short and intermediate sectors.
Alabama is a run-heavy team. QB Jalen Milroe is a good downfield thrower, but his accuracy and timing issues behind a mediocre offensive line have rendered the Tide a meager No. 56 in passing success rate. In short: The thing that Kentucky's defense is bad at defending is the thing Alabama doesn't excel at offensively.
Alabama's pass defense is the inverse, in that it mucks up the opponent's efficiency (No. 7 success rate), but will give up over-the-top shots (No. 72 explosion). Kentucky's passing offense is mediocre in terms of efficiency, but it's No. 33 in explosion.
UK QB Devin Leary should have a better game than expected, a development that should keep us within the number with standout Wildcats RB Ray Davis and Alabama's top-shelf run defense battling to a draw.
Especially against an Alabama team that is 4-8 ATS (33.3%) in true road games over the last three seasons (16-7 ATS at home).
The pick: Kentucky +10.5
Ole Miss (+10.5) at Georgia
ATL: UGA -9.2
Earlier this week, Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin told reporters that he and his team learned lessons from their last two trips to Alabama. And that the "vibe" around the team this week has been totally different. In short: The Rebs have nothing to lose.
I loved this sentiment. It is exactly what I wanted to hear. I believe Kiffin's Rebels match up well, here. And I believe Ole Miss' last two trips into hostile territory as a double-digit underdog will pay big dividends on Saturday in terms of decision-making.
This Georgia team is different from the past two in that its rushing offense and defense have both fallen from the levels of the past two national title teams. Georgia's passing offense is top-shelf, and its pass defense is elite. Time will tell if the final product is enough to win a third-straight natty.
But in this game, against Ole Miss, the decline of Georgia's run defense may come into play. The Bulldogs rank No. 48 in rushing success rate and No 60 in power success rate. Ole Miss ranks No. 33 and No. 31 in those two categories offensively. But the Rebels would assuredly be several rungs higher in both had RB Quinshon Judkins not been banged-up throughout September. Judkins, one of the nation's best, is fully-healthy now.
Ole Miss runs at one of the fastest tempos in the nation, and they have a top-25 run rate in America. Translation: They'll test Georgia's decent-but-far-from-elite run defense early and often, and then attempt to drag it into deep waters by gassing it.
Georgia is going to have success through the air, here. But Judkins and crew are going to have the same. This is too many points to give the live underdog.
The pick: Ole Miss +10.5
Arkansas (-2.5) vs. Auburn
ATL: Arkansas -3.6
Arkansas was a completely different team last week against Florida with former OC Dan Enos fired, the up-tempo offense re-instituted, and RB Rocket Sanders back from injury. With those three factors locked into place again this week, laying less than a field goal with the Hogs at home feels generous.
The pick: Arkansas -2.5
Pittsburgh (-3) at Syracuse
ATL: Pitt -4.5
A casual fan will look at the record of these teams, then the spread, and wonder how Pitt is a field goal favorite on the road.
In reality, the Panthers probably aren't laying enough.
As of this typing, we still do not know who will be quarterbacking Syracuse. Reportedly, those within the program do not know whether QB Garrett Shrader will return this year. QB2 Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is also injured. Del Rio-Wilson is nearly unplayable - he had 37 passing yards with four INT last week in a loss to Boston College - but at least he's experienced. If Shrader and Del Rio-Wilson are both injured... cover your eyes.
For all Pitt's faults - the Panthers are terrible this season - they have a very good run defense. Running the ball is the only thing Syracuse had remained decent at during the Orange's five-game losing streak. If this thing starts out poorly, the home crowd is going to turn on Syracuse and spend the rest of the game calling for the firing of HC Dino Babers - which they also did last week. If Pitt wins by double-digits, which is absolutely in play, I believe they'll get their wish.
The pick: Pittsburgh -3
Wake Forest (+2.5) vs. NC State
ATL: WF -0.8
NC State comes in off two consecutive upset wins over Miami and Clemson. It beat Clemson with less than a 50% postgame win expectancy. It beat Miami when QB Tyler Van Dyke should not have been playing.
Now, NCSU QB MJ Morris has been shut down for the season. Uninspiring, run-first veteran QB Brennan Armstrong, previously benched, has been re-inserted into the lineup for the stretch run. We know what the offense looks like with Armstrong: Lots of scrambling around, interspersed with short, errant throws.
Wake Forest's defensive strength is its run defense. And my conviction in Wake Forest is belied by the return of a healthy QB Mitch Griffis, who looked very good against a strong Duke defense last week (16-for-19 for 241 yards).
The pick: Wake Forest +2.5
Temple (+7) at South Florida
ATL: USF -4.9
Bookmakers didn't factor Temple QB EJ Warner's return into the line last week against Navy. Temple upset the Mids with a similar spread. I think the Owls bag another upset.
The pick: Temple +7
Other bets:
Georgia State (-2) vs. Appalachian State | ATL: GSU -2.8
Texas State (-1.5) at Coastal Carolina | ATL: TSU -3.3
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 10)
- NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz's Favorites (2023)
- Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 11 Bets (2023)
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks, & Predictions
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