Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 12 Bets (2023)

Here's a look at College Football Week 12 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Here's a look at College Football Week 12 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Best College Football Week 12 Bets

2023: 82-85-4 (49.1%) ATS
2014-2022: 815-704-21 (53.6%) ATS

Note: In the table below, ATL ("Adjusted Thor Line") is my system's projected spread, and ATT ("Adjusted Thor Total") is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective - a negative number indicates the home team is favored.

My bets below were all locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week. My record is also tracked in the app. To get my bets the second I make them, download the BettingPros app, follow me at BettingPros.com/thor, and turn on notifications.

Away	Home	Vegas Spread	ATL	Vegas Total	ATT	Day
Boston College	Pittsburgh	-3.0	-2.8	46.5	52.1	Thursday
South Florida	UTSA	-16.5	-15.1	67	67.4	Friday
Colorado	Washington St.	-4.5	-3.5	64.5	74.6	Friday
Tulane	Florida Atlantic	9.5	7.7	46.5	44.1	Saturday
Louisville	Miami (FL)	1.0	-1.9	46.5	60.7	Saturday
SMU	Memphis	8.0	5	66	73.1	Saturday
Rutgers	Penn St.	-20.5	-22	42.5	46.7	Saturday
Purdue	Northwestern	3.0	2.9	46.5	52.8	Saturday
Michigan St.	Indiana	-4.5	-1.1	47.5	48.5	Saturday
Michigan	Maryland	19.0	19.8	50.5	59.2	Saturday
Southern Miss	Mississippi St.	-14.0	-15.8	46.5	49.5	Saturday
Louisiana-Monroe	Ole Miss	-37.5	-35.6	62	57.4	Saturday
Coastal Carolina	Army	4.5	2.8	43	41.5	Saturday
East Carolina	Navy	-2.5	-0.7	32.5	30.8	Saturday
Chattanooga	Alabama	-44.5	-40.2	50.5	50.3	Saturday
Oregon	Arizona St.	23.5	23.8	54	49.5	Saturday
Oklahoma St.	Houston	7.0	4.1	59.5	62.4	Saturday
Cincinnati	West Virginia	-6.5	-4.6	54.5	56	Saturday
New Mexico	Fresno St.	-23.5	-20.6	56.5	67.8	Saturday
Baylor	TCU	-13.0	-15.4	58.5	55.6	Saturday
UCF	Texas Tech	-3.0	-4.2	60	68.2	Saturday
UCLA	USC	-6.5	-5.7	65.5	89.2	Saturday
UMass	Liberty	-27.5	-24.3	62	69.7	Saturday
Utah	Arizona	-1.0	2.7	44.5	46.7	Saturday
Kansas St.	Kansas	8.0	10.4	56.5	68.9	Saturday
Oklahoma	Brigham Young	24.5	24.7	57	60.1	Saturday
Rice	Charlotte	2.5	3.8	47.5	52.7	Saturday
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	-7.5	-6.8	47.5	45	Saturday
Appalachian St.	James Madison	-9.0	-10.2	56	62.6	Saturday
Hawai’i	Wyoming	-13.5	-12.5	46	47.3	Saturday
Kent St.	Ball St.	-12.5	-10.2	42	38.5	Saturday
Louisiana Tech	Jacksonville St.	-8.5	-8.4	54.5	58.2	Saturday
Nevada	Colorado St.	-11.5	-9.6	47.5	42.6	Saturday
North Texas	Tulsa	2.5	-1	66.5	73.2	Saturday
Duke	Virginia	4.0	8.6	47	50.6	Saturday
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	3.5	0.9	59.5	68.3	Saturday
Temple	UAB	-7.5	-7.9	64.5	66.6	Saturday
Wake Forest	Notre Dame	-24.5	-24	46.5	54.4	Saturday
Illinois	Iowa	-3.5	-7.2	30.5	34.7	Saturday
UNLV	Air Force	-3.0	-5.7	47	58.8	Saturday
Louisiana	Troy	-16.0	-11.8	47.5	47.8	Saturday
Georgia	Tennessee	10.5	8.5	59	64.9	Saturday
North Carolina	Clemson	-6.5	-2.2	58.5	68	Saturday
North Carolina St.	Virginia Tech	-3.0	3.9	44	50.9	Saturday
Sam Houston	Western Kentucky	-13.0	-13.2	52.5	50.3	Saturday
Minnesota	Ohio St.	-27.5	-28.3	49	41.9	Saturday
New Mexico St.	Auburn	-24.0	-18.8	48.5	37.2	Saturday
Marshall	South Alabama	-10.5	-9	49	56.2	Saturday
Old Dominion	Georgia Southern	-6.0	-9.8	60.5	60.7	Saturday
California	Stanford	6.5	5.8	55.5	61.9	Saturday
Boise St.	Utah St.	3.0	1.9	64.5	73.4	Saturday
Florida	Missouri	-11.5	-8.5	59	59.7	Saturday
Florida International	Arkansas	-29.5	-25.9	49.5	44.6	Saturday
Nebraska	Wisconsin	-4.5	-9.6	37	38.5	Saturday
Kentucky	South Carolina	1.5	0.1	54.5	61.8	Saturday
Washington	Oregon St.	-2.5	-2.5	63.5	68	Saturday
Texas	Iowa St.	7.5	9.7	47	47.1	Saturday
Georgia St.	LSU	-31.5	-28.6	71.5	79.4	Saturday
Syracuse	Georgia Tech	-6.5	-1.5	53	61.2	Saturday
San Diego St.	San Jose St.	-14.5	-14.3	49.5	52.9	Saturday

Florida Atlantic (+9.5) vs. Tulane

ATL: FAU -7.7

This is a must-win game for 5-5 FAU if they hope to stay alive for bowl season.

Tulane is 9-1. But the Green Wave have not won a game by more than a field goal since October 21. And Tulane has not won by more than seven points in over a month!

The spread of this game would require Tulane to do so, on the road, over a team that desperately needs the victory.

In addition, Tulane may be without three of its top wide receivers again - each has been officially listed as questionable, but all are highly iffy to play. If Tulane's WR room is devastated again, the Green Wave will once again be forced to lean into their ground game.

The Owls are hoping for exactly that scenario. Because FAU's run defense is the singular strength of the entire team. That would set up for a low-scoring game. The kind of game where Tulane just wants to get in and get out. The type of game where FAU is hoping to turn it into a coinflip at the end and steal and upset. The sort of game where you'll be loving your ticket, getting nearly double-digit points.

The pick: FAU +9.5 (play to +7.5)

North Carolina (+6.5) at Clemson

ATL: Clemson -2.2

The market is cool on the Tar Heels after the way they've played the last month - losses to Virginia and Georgia Tech, and a close win over Duke - and I get that. But this is a big buy-low opportunity on a live underdog.

Clemson's offense remains mediocre, and the Tigers' special teams unit is poor. That puts a ton of pressure on the defense. UNC's dynamic No. 6 SP+ offense will test that defense.

Particularly since Clemson's defense - No. 14 SP+ - is not near full strength at the moment. Two starters in the secondary have been missing for multiple games. And LB Barrett Carter was absent for the win over Georgia Tech and very well may be again.

It's absolutely fair to nitpick this UNC team. But the Heels have scored 27 or more in every game, and not lost by more than four points since last year's ACC title game against?… the Clemson Tigers!

That makes this a prime revenge spot for UNC QB Drake Maye, who is making his second and (presumably) final start against the longtime ACC bully Clemson Tigers.

The pick: UNC +6.5 (play to +4.5)

Arkansas State (+3.5) vs. Texas State

ATL: TSU -0.9

Texas State lost 31-23 to Coastal Carolina last week. QB2 Malik Hornsby played the entire second half, throwing for only 32 yards. It appeared QB1 TJ Finley, who played the entire first half, was hurt - the game was close - but HC GJ Kinne said after the game that Finley was not.

Odd situation, there. Texas State only weeks before had shifted Hornsby to running back. Hornsby's previous team, Arkansas, also shifted him off quarterback, leading to his transfer to TSU. Why would Kinne bench Finley in a close game if Finley was healthy? Finley is closing in on 3,000 yards with an 18/5 TD/INT rate for what was a resurgent 6-3 team.

Either way, weird circumstances for a Texas State team that appeared flat coming off clinching a bowl spot the week previous. Which it celebrated by jumping in a nearby lake.

Now, Texas State turns around to travel to an Arkansas State team that can clinch the same improbable right - a return trip to bowl season after several years wandering the desert.

We believe the Red Wolves spring the home upset, sending Butch Jones back to the postseason.

The pick: Arkansas State +3.5 (play to +3)

ECU (+2.5) at Navy

ATL: Navy -1.7

Navy is technically still alive for a bowl berth, while ECU is 2-8. So this handicap flies in the face of much of this week's column's theme.

But ECU has been scratching and clawing in recent weeks, winning at FAU last week 22-7 and only losing 13-10 to Tulane the week before.

And, importantly, for this matchup, ECU has an awesome run defense that it can sic on Navy's triple-option offense. While ECU's pass-leaning offense should be able to move the ball on Navy's rancid pass defense.

ECU had all kinds of problems in the first month-plus of the season after it lost most of its roster over the offseason. But the Pirates have a strong, experienced coaching staff. And it's clear that the roster not only hasn't quit on the staff, but is ramping up for a bounceback 2024. ECU continues its quiet mini-surge by upsetting Navy.

The pick: ECU +2.5 (play to pick 'em)

Oregon State (-2) vs. Washington

ATL: OSU -2.5

Washington comes in 10-0. It is three wins away from writing a storybook ending to its final season in the Pac-12 and punching a Cinderella ticket into the CFP.

Oregon State, the jilted lover left behind amid the Pac-12's disbandment, is 8-2.*

But the Beavers, welcoming the Huskies to Corvallis this weekend, are closer qualitatively to Saturday's opponent than the standings would have you believe. Washington has 8.5 second-order wins, while OSU has 8.2.

In large part, this is because Washington has escaped scares the past two weeks against USC and Utah. The Huskies finished with postgame win expectancies of 55% or lower in each.

Washington hasn't beaten an opponent by more than 10 points since September 23. The Huskies have won their three road Pac-12 games - against Stanford, USC, Arizona - by an average of a mere 8.0 PPG (with the exact same postgame adjusted PPG margin).

Oregon State, meanwhile, has beaten every opponent it has played in Corvallis in 2023 by double-digits - that includes Utah and UCLA.

In addition, if you were to construct the perfect antidote to this Washington team, it would look a lot like this exact Oregon State roster.

The Beavers' defensive strength is its pass defense. The Beavers are top-10 efficient on offense while playing bottom-25 adjusted tempo. That means that OSU's explicit strategy is to dominate time of possession to keep the ball out of your offense's hands. That is going to drive UW HC Kalen DeBoer nuts on Saturday.

Washington is oh-so-very close to a Cinderella ending to its Pac-12 story. But as Max Baer said in the movie Cinderella Man before he, himself, was knocked out by a heavy underdog: "It’s no joke, pal. People die in fairy tales all the time."

The pick: Oregon State -2 (play to -2.5)

Houston (+7) vs. Oklahoma State

ATL: OSU -4.1

Oklahoma State's reckoning with the Regression Monster isn't over after last weekend's shellacking at UCF. The Pokes' 5.5 second-order wins are still -1.5 below its 7-3 record. This week brings the dreaded back-to-back travel spot - to a Houston team that needs to win to stay alive for a bowl (4-6) and a coach (Dana Holgoren) that might need two more wins to keep his job.

Outside of that, Houston matches up well in this game for two key reasons: The Cougars have a strong passing offense and Okie State's pass defense is terrible, and for all the faults of the Cougars' defense, its biggest strength is taking away explosive plays, the entire tenant that Okie State's offense is built on.

The play: Houston +7 (play to +6)

Colorado (+4.5) at Washington State (Friday)

ATL: Wazzu -3.5

Loser-leaves-town game in the Pac-12 for bowl purposes between a pair of reeling 4-6 outfits. CU has lost four-straight. Wazzu has lost six-straight. Something has to give

Wazzu is at home. And is qualitatively better by the numbers (5.1 second-order wins to CU's 3.6). Both teams are constructed eerily similarly - pass-happy, finesse teams.

But this is the time of the year for motivational handicapping. I'm putting on my pop psychologist hat for this one.

Wazzu's staff has openly talked in recent weeks about how opposing coaching staffs are contacting their players, attempting to poach them. Wazzu's coaches have been playing more defense off the field over the past month than the defense has on it. Much of the roster appears checked-out.

Same could be said of the fanbase. It's debatable whether Wazzu has a home-field advantage at this point - this season cannot end soon enough.

Colorado, meanwhile, is still scratching and clawing. Despite the four-game losing streak, CU has covered three-straight. When asked about comments sportswriters had made attempting to link him to the A&M opening, Coach Prime earlier this week laughed it off, got serious, and said he's just trying to win one game.

There is no chance whatsoever that Prime leaves after this season for any opening. I would bet any amount of money on this. Any “distraction” narrative around the Buffs program in that regard is pure fabricated fiction by media members looking to chew air time or fill column space.

The reason for that: Prime’s sons, Shedeur and Shilo, by NCAA rule, would not be able to leave with him. Same goes for most of the rest of CU’s roster, prominently led by Travis Hunter. Because the NCAA is now strongly enforcing the you-only-one-free-transfer rule (the Tez Walker story brought this into the national headlines this fall). And, as you know, CU’s roster was mostly constructed from transfers. Carve it in stone: Prime will be at Colorado next year.

CU will be locked in for this game, and is locked in for the rest of this season, in a way that Wazzu categorically is not.

I think the Buffs break through on Friday night with an upset win over Wazzu.

The pick: Colorado +4.5 (play to +3.5)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: