Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 8 Bets (2023)

Here's a look at College Football Week 8 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

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Here's a look at College Football Week 8 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Best College Football Week 8 Bets

2023: 60-56-4 (51.7%)

Note: In the table below, ATL ("Adjusted Thor Line") is my system's projected spread, and ATT ("Adjusted Thor Total") is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective - a negative number indicates the home team is favored.

My bets below were all locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week. My record is also tracked in the app. To get my bets the second I make them, download the BettingPros app, follow me at BettingPros.com/thor, and turn on notifications.

Away	Home	Vegas Spread	ATL	Vegas Total	ATT	Day
SMU	Temple	20.5	20.6	54.5	54.9	Friday
UCF	Oklahoma	-19.0	-13.5	66	71.1	Saturday
Rutgers	Indiana	5.5	8.8	39.5	46.2	Saturday
Penn St.	Ohio St.	-4.5	-0.4	45.5	45.9	Saturday
Western Michigan	Ohio	-17.0	-12.9	53	51.5	Saturday
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	-6.0	-9.8	48.5	53	Saturday
Memphis	UAB	5.5	9.8	63	70.2	Saturday
Air Force	Navy	10.5	11.1	35.5	45.6	Saturday
Boston College	Georgia Tech	-4.5	-6.1	58.5	60.5	Saturday
Baylor	Cincinnati	-3.5	-6.2	50	49.7	Saturday
Akron	Bowling Green	-7.5	-6.9	39.5	37.3	Saturday
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia Southern	-17.0	-14.6	59.5	48.8	Saturday
Charlotte	East Carolina	-7.0	-7.2	41	33	Saturday
Washington St.	Oregon	-20.0	-20.0	62	67.7	Saturday
Tennessee	Alabama	-8.5	-7.6	49	42.3	Saturday
South Florida	Connecticut	2.5	0.8	54.5	59.7	Saturday
South Carolina	Missouri	-7.0	-10.0	60	58.8	Saturday
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	-12.0	-8.8	45.5	39.6	Saturday
Pittsburgh	Wake Forest	-1.0	3.2	45.5	40.5	Saturday
Buffalo	Kent St.	7.0	3.6	44.5	48.2	Saturday
Oklahoma St.	West Virginia	-3.5	-2.7	49.5	40.4	Saturday
Wisconsin	Illinois	2.5	3.1	42	41.4	Saturday
North Texas	Tulane	-20.0	-21.9	63	57.4	Saturday
Central Michigan	Ball St.	4.5	-1.3	40.5	42.9	Saturday
Northwestern	Nebraska	-11.0	-9.2	41	45.4	Saturday
Minnesota	Iowa	-3.5	-7.2	31.5	31	Saturday
Toledo	Miami (OH)	2.0	-0.3	48.5	48.2	Saturday
Texas	Houston	23.5	20.4	61	62.7	Saturday
Hawai’i	New Mexico	1.0	1.0	60	65.4	Saturday
UTSA	Florida Atlantic	3.0	2.4	60	43.3	Saturday
Virginia	North Carolina	-23.5	-25.1	56.5	61.7	Saturday
Appalachian St.	Old Dominion	6.5	6.0	53.5	62.7	Saturday
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas St.	10.5	11.9	60.5	52.3	Saturday
TCU	Kansas St.	-6.5	-5.9	59	56.5	Saturday
Colorado St.	UNLV	-8.0	-8.0	64	70.2	Saturday
Texas Tech	Brigham Young	4.5	3.6	52	66.2	Saturday
Ole Miss	Auburn	6.5	6.7	56.5	58.2	Saturday
Utah St.	San Jose St.	-4.0	-3.2	66.5	69.1	Saturday
Army	LSU	-30.0	-32.4	57.5	65.1	Saturday
Michigan	Michigan St.	24.5	20.1	48	48.7	Saturday
Duke	Florida St.	-13.5	-13.0	48.5	53.7	Saturday
Utah	USC	-7.0	-9.3	56	60.8	Saturday
Clemson	Miami (FL)	3.5	1.2	48.5	59.1	Saturday
Georgia St.	Louisiana	-3.0	-1.5	63	66.9	Saturday
Nevada	San Diego St.	-13.5	-13.1	47.5	45.3	Saturday
Arizona St.	Washington	-26.5	-29.3	58.5	53.1	Saturday
UCLA	Stanford	17.0	17.5	53.5	44.1	Saturday

Rutgers (-4) at Indiana

ATL: Rutgers -8.8

When the calendar turned to November, Indiana HC Tom Allen fired OC Walt Bell and promoted quality control coach Rod Carey to OC. Carey is one of the least-inspiring offensive minds that we have in college football today.

Then, Allen hired former VT HC Justin Fuente off the street to fill Carey's old spot as analyst. The idea with Fuente was that he'd aid in quarterback development.

These are classic moves of a coach under fire: Offer an in-season sacrifice, hope for the best.

Earlier this week, Allen made the following quote: "Was hoping someone would step up (at quarterback)… didn't happen."

Allen has the sound of a man walking the green mile.

On the other side, this is a must-win for Rutgers. The 5-2 Knights' remaining schedule after this game?: Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Maryland. If Rutgers wants to go to a bowl, it would be wise to punch its ticket Saturday. I think it does, emphatically.

The pick: Rutgers -4

Iowa (-3.5) vs. Minnesota | Under 32.5

ATL: Iowa -7.2

ATT: 31

I bought an u32.5 ticket Sunday - when this was the third-lowest total in CFB history - under the assumption this would drop even further. That has proven out. As of this typing, we're now at 31.5 - which would tie the all-time record (hilariously, set in last year's Iowa-Minnesota game).

Iowa's offense, already bad, has lost QB Cade McNamara, TE Lukes Lachey and Erick All for the season. The Hawkeyes' QB and WR play is some of the very worst in the entire FBS.

I'm hearing that Minnesota will be getting RB Darius Taylor back, and has a very good chance of seeing LB Cody Lindenberg's season debut as well. Lindenberg's return would be big, as he's one of the Minnesota's best run defenders, and Iowa's offense can't do anything else.

But Iowa does have SP+'s No. 1 overall defense, as well as its No. 10 special teams unit. They play slow as molasses (as does Minnesota).

This Gophers team is not as good as the past few iterations. The offense has badly regressed (No. 77 SP+), and has all kinds of issues throwing because QB Athan Kaliakmanis has not panned out.

As with Iowa on the other side of the ball, Minnesota's only recourse in this game is to run. Taylor and crew could grind out some yards, but points are going to be few and far between.

Minnesota's only three wins this year are over Nebraska, EMU, and Louisiana. The Gophers probably should have lost to Nebraska. Even the Louisiana win was a little closer in reality than it was on the 11-point-win scoreboard.

Iowa has been good to bettors this year, with a top-30 cover rate in the country at the window. I think they get another here in an ugly, low-scoring game against a down opponent. Call it 17-10 Hawkeyes.

With this game, Iowa will have been involved in the top-3 lowest point totals ever in college football, and they've all occurred since last November.

The picks: Iowa -3.5 | Iowa-Minnesota Under 32.5

For more info on that, check out this thread:

The Iowa-Minnesota total is currently 32.5

That is currently the third-lowest total in college football history

The second-lowest total in history was Iowa's bowl game against Kentucky in Drcember

The lowest ever was Iowa's game the month before against.. Minnesota

A thread🧵 pic.twitter.com/Fpmqr0AhEX

— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) October 16, 2023

UCF (+18.5) at Oklahoma

ATL: UCF -13.5

UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee only completed full games the first two weeks of the season - wins over Kent State and Boise State. Since then, all we've seen of him was an ill-fated attempt at a return in the Kansas game, followed by a quick hook when it became apparent that he still wasn't right.

Everything I'm hearing indicates that he's now, indeed, right. Which is huge for the Knights, a team that haven't beaten an FBS opponent since Plumlee's injury woes cropped up.

With a healthy Plumlee, this is simply too many points to give a game underdog. UCF still boasts SP+'s No. 21 offense despite not having Plumlee's services most of the season, and its rushing attack does real damage (No. 18 success rate). UCF is also extremely explosive through the air (No. 9).

And while you can run all over UCF (No. 123 success rate), the Knights are good against the pass (No. 45 success rate, No. 23 explosion).

That matches up well against an Oklahoma team that is much better at passing than it is running. And while Oklahoma's run defense metrics are strong this year, the Sooners have played only one top-45 SP+ offense, and that opponent, Texas, prefers to throw. Additionally, OU's pass defense struggles with explosives (No. 83).

The pick: UCF +18.5

Penn State (+4.5) at Ohio State

ATL: OSU -0.4

Ohio State has cluster injuries to the RB room at the moment, as well as the WR Emeka Egbuka injury to keep an eye on. Against a nasty Penn State defense, a ton of pressure is going to be put on OSU QB Kyle McCord to make the correct split-second decisions, and to then fit balls into tight windows.

My 10-second handicap?: I'm betting against his ability to do so.

Penn State's No. 2 SP+ defense can force Ohio State to play one-handed. Once the Buckeyes are predictably taking to the air each down, they'll have to go into the teeth of the country's No. 1 success rate passing defense.

Neither of these teams have played strengths of schedules inside the SP+ top-50, so there's an element of jumping into the unknown. However, I like PSU more than Notre Dame, a similarly-built team that should have beaten Ohio State.

And PSU's softly-maligned offense acquitted itself far better against Iowa's nasty defense than anyone else has, putting up 31 points and nearly 400 yards (both would have been higher had Iowa's offense put up a fight), while QB Drew Allar threw for four TD.

My system sees this one as close to a pick 'em. We're riding the 'dog.

The pick: Penn State +4.5

Memphis (-6.5) at UAB

ATL: Memphis -9.8

We got burned by Memphis last week against Tulane when the Tigers coughed up a 21-10 lead as underdogs over the final 20 minutes to lose SU and ATS (by 10).

This week, I'm expecting a different story. Tulane is the class of the AAC. The 2-5 UAB Blazers? More or less the opposite.

And this week, the pass-happy Blazers may be playing without starting QB Jacob Zeno.

I think Memphis lets off some steam by blasting UAB.

The pick: Memphis -6.5

Cincinnati (-3.5) vs. Baylor

ATL: Cincy -6.2

Baylor is coming off a bye. But things aren't going well in Waco. Last week, Baylor's AD said he'd had discussions with HC Dave Aranda about calling plays that fit the personnel.

Baylor's offense has been done-in by a rancid OL that ranks No. 120 or lower in pressures allowed, blown run block %, and total block blown %. The run game is non-existent. In the passing game, QB Blake Shapen rarely has time to go through progressions, and when he does, Baylor doesn't have the playmakers outside to do damage.

And Baylor's defense, Aranda's bread-and-butter, has sagged all the way to No. 71 SP+.

Cincinnati's defense, and particularly its front-seven, is going to be a problem for Bayor on Saturday. The Bearcats rank No. 39 in sacks per dropback and No. 23 in defensive havoc.

Cincy's offense isn't much to write home about, but it should scratch out points against this generous Baylor defense.

The pick: Cincinnati -3.5

Miami (OH) (+2.0) vs. Toledo

ATL: Miami -0.3

Miami (OH) lost its opener to Miami (FL) 38-3. Since then, the Redhawks have won - and covered - in six-straight games. The only single-digit win among the six was a seven-point win over the Big 12's Cincinnati Bearcats.

Miami can generate explosive plays on offense, it plays strong defense, and it has an elite special teams unit (No. 2 SP+).

Interestingly, Toledo has also won six-straight since dropping its own opener to Illinois. However, the Rockets have only covered two-of-seven games this year - suggesting they've been overpriced by the books all year - and are 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite.

Toledo has only played the No. 129 strength of schedule. Outside of Illinois, Miami will easily be the best opponent the Rockets have played this year. Both teams are 6-1, but Miami appears to be better than perception, while Toledo has proven it isn't.

The pick: Miami (OH) +2

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Wake Forest | Under 45.5

ATL: Pitt -3.2

ATT: 40.5

Wake Forest QB1 Mitch Griffis is iffy for this game with an injury suffered in the first half last week against Virginia Tech. WF QB2 Michael Kern entered the game, suffered a shoulder injury, and is out for two weeks.

If Griffis can't go - and as of this typing, things appear to be trending that way - the Demon Deacons would be forced to start QB3 Santino Marucci, a converted safety.

Against a bad Virginia Tech team, with shoddy QB play, Wake Forest got blasted 30-13. After the game, HC Dave Clawson said this: "Offensively, we've clearly had a dramatic drop off for where we've been the last six years."

Things are going to get worse if Clawson is forced to start a converted safety behind center in his timing-based slow-mesh offense against a Pat Narduzzi defense. Pitt ranks No. 3 in sacks per dropback.

Pitt's offense has been better with QB Christian Veilleux behind center, and Pittsburgh announced Veilleux will start the rest of the season.

The picks: Pittsburgh +1.5 | Under 45.5

Other bets:

Ball State (+4.5) vs. Central Michigan | ATL: BSU -1.3
Georgia State (+3.5) at Louisiana | ATL: UL -1.5
Arkansas (-6.5) vs. Mississippi State | ATL: Arky -9.8

Tuesday bets:
Liberty -14 vs. MTSU (Loss)
Jacksonville State +7 vs. WKU (Win)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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