Thor Nystrom’s Florida State Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)

In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of the Florida State Seminoles. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC and for all of the independent teams.

ACC Preview & Win Total Bets

Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicate a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.

2022 win totals final standings:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%

System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%

10. Florida State Seminoles

Returning starters: 8 offense, 9 defense

Hand to the sky, I'll take some accountability. Prior to last season, I had several private conversations where I mused that FSU should pull the plug on HC Mike Norvell and hire Jackson State HC Deion Sanders. Sanders, Tallahassee's favorite son, would then bring with him his son, QB Shadeur, plus five-star CB Travis Hunter. This was when FSU was coming off a 5-7 campaign. I was wrong. FSU roared back with a 10-3 season in 2022, and the roster is even better this fall. FSU had only 10 signings in the portal, but it was a quality-over-quality approach - eight were listed as four-stars by 247, and the haul ranked No. 6 overall.

The offense will be flammable. QB Jordan Travis is a legit NFL prospect with a dynamic dual-threat game. RB Trey Benson is so good he chased an RB I really like - Treshaun Ward - across the country to Kansas State, the WR/TE groups are loaded, and the OL returns over 200 career starts, which is ludicrous. The defense loses veteran difference-maker S Jammie Robinson but incredibly returns just about everyone else. In a stunning turn, Norvell was able to convince potential Round 1 NFL Draft pick EDGE Jared Verse to return to school. Florida State had one of the nation's nastiest pass defenses last season and likely will again. Robinson's loss was somewhat softened by the addition of all-ACC CB Fentrell Cypress from UVA.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 10.2
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Over

I love this FSU roster. The starting lineup is loaded, and it's tailored to exactly what Norvell has historically wanted to do on both sides of the ball - that sets a ceiling of a CFP berth. The floor of this team is also extremely high because Norvell's slick work both in the portal and also in convincing NFL prospects to return to campus has hulked up his second unit, protecting the team from injuries at several positions. We see the Noles as a CFP contender. We're going over.

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