In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each independent college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC.
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each independent college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC.
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicates a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
Here are my stats from last summer's win total series:
2022 win totals final standings:
System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:
System Breakdown:
Returning starters: 6 offense, 8 defense
The Irish didn't appear overly down about waving goodbye to QBs Tyler Buchner (Alabama) or Drew Pyne (Arizona St.) in the transfer portal. But they were downright jubilant to announce the incoming transfer of former Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman. Hartman's 12,967 career passing yards already rank No. 19 in FBS history (he'll leave school top-5 all-time in passing with a healthy 2023). The marriage of Hartman and Notre Dame was ideal for both sides - the Irish raised their ceiling considerably, while Hartman gets a chance to prove to NFL scouts that he's not a product of Wake's slow-mesh offense. That's not all folks: The RB room is top-tier, the talented WR corps should tick way up with better QB play, and the offensive line is one of the nation's best.
We know big offensive improvement is coming - particularly to a passing offense that finished No. 97 in 2022. That much-improved offense is going to be supported by what should be an outstanding defense. Eight starters return, and the two-deep is littered with both experience and recruiting pedigree. The defensive starting lineup is clearly top-10 quality nationally - Notre Dame has playmakers at every level. The only concern would be cluster injuries along a defensive line that lost three major contributors to the NFL.
Not only is this Notre Dame team objectively better than last year's edition, but the Irish enjoy a manageable schedule. Sure, the Ohio St., USC, and Clemson games will be tough. But my system is bullish that the Irish will emerge with at least one win from that troika. More importantly: In eight other games on the schedule, my system installs Notre Dame as double-digit favorites - setting a floor that is just below the Vegas win total itself. Hold serve in those eight and then beat Louisville (ATL: ND -7.9) and you're home. Hold serve but lose to Louisville and you're still going over with one victory among the Ohio St., USC, and Clemson games. Freeman went 5-1 ATS last year as a 'dog or favorite of seven-or-less, while going 1-5 ATS in games ND was favored by 7+. But I'm guessing that was a one-year aberration based in part on the quarterback situation that's now been rectified.
| Away | Home | ATL | Win Odds |
| Navy | Notre Dame* | -25.9 | 1 |
| Tennessee St. | Notre Dame | -45 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | North Carolina St. | -10.4 | 0.83 |
| Central Michigan | Notre Dame | -33.6 | 1 |
| Ohio St. | Notre Dame | 8.1 | 0.22 |
| Notre Dame | Duke | -10 | 0.82 |
| Notre Dame | Louisville | -7.9 | 0.77 |
| USC | Notre Dame | -1.6 | 0.52 |
| Pittsburgh | Notre Dame | -16.6 | 0.96 |
| Notre Dame | Clemson | 1.7 | 0.48 |
| Wake Forest | Notre Dame | -21.2 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | Stanford | -27.7 | 1 |
Returning Starters: 9 offense, 8 defense
Army HC Jeff Monken, who has overseen triple-option offenses since 1997, is doing the unthinkable this fall: Converting the Black Knights into a zone-read shotgun offense. Monken is explicitly doing this due to the NCAA's rule last season that banned cut-blocking, a staple of the triple-option. Army struggled to adjust, going 6-6 but missing bowl season with only four wins over FBS teams. Monken has stated that he still intends to run the ball 50 times per game, but that he wants to pass a bit more in the new offense. His formation will just be more spread out, and it'll swap out a fullback for another receiver. Monken says the offense will resemble what Jamey Chadwell ran at Coastal Carolina. With nine starters returning on offense, Monken at least has personnel continuity.
But it wouldn't surprise if September was a bit bumpy during the transition. If that acclimation process is slow, much pressure will be on the defense to compensate. Fortunately, eight starters return. But Army isn't going to be as strong up-front, with three members from last year's front seven now in NFL camps. The Black Knights finished No. 3 in pass defense last year and should be very good in that department again, with four of five starting defensive backs returning. The pass rush is sure to miss OLB Andre Carter. But Carter's loss could actually help the run defense, which sagged to No. 118 last year - Carter struggled in that facet throughout his career.
This number is spot-on. If games with adjusted spreads over 8.0 points go to the favorite, Army would go 4-4 in those games. The other four games on the schedule - Boston College, Air Force, Coastal Carolina, and Navy - are coinflips. Because we don't know how the offensive system change is going to go, and with little value to be had at this number, we can't put money at risk.
| Away | Home | ATL | Win Odds |
| Army | Louisiana-Monroe | -8.8 | 0.8 |
| Deleware St. | Army | -20.0 | 0.998 |
| Army | UTSA | 12.9 | 0.11 |
| Army | Syracuse | 14.9 | 0.08 |
| Boston College | Army | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Army | Troy | 11.2 | 0.15 |
| Army | LSU | 34.7 | 0 |
| Massachusetts | Army | -16.9 | 0.96 |
| Air Force | Army* | 6.0 | 0.3 |
| Holy Cross | Army | -17.5 | 0.98 |
| Coastal Carolina | Army | -1.0 | 0.51 |
| Army* | Navy | 2.1 | 0.47 |
Returning Starters: 9 offense, 8 defense
In one of college football's best under-the-radar stories last season, Jim Mora Jr. took a UConn squad that had gone 4-32 over the previous three seasons to a bowl. This year's team, qualitatively, should be better. The RB room is strong, and it'll be running behind an OL with more than 100 career starts. The QB position should be stabilized as well after it was devastated by injuries in 2022, which forced a true freshman into the starting lineup. The expected QB1 is Joe Fagnano, who started for OC Nick Charlton at FCS Maine.
The reason the Huskies rallied into bowl season last year was the defense, which ranked a solid No. 61 in scoring defense while checking in at No. 42 in pass defense. The return of star MLB Jackson Mitchell was huge - he's averaged nearly 100 tackles per season over the last two campaigns. The secondary added three P5 transfers, ensuring the pass defense should be stout again. UConn could be run on last year but with four returning starters on the line, the Huskies should be better in that area in 2023.
Thor’s Projected Win Totals: 5.3
Las Vegas Win Total: 5
Thor’s Bet: Pass
UConn has three likely wins, and four likely losses, on the 2023 schedule. The other five games have adjusted spreads of 7.0-points-or-less. My system has a slight lean to the over, and I don't disagree with that, but we're too close to the margins at this number to put money at risk.
| Away | Home | ATL | Win Odds |
| North Carolina St. | Connecticut | 15.5 | 0.07 |
| Connecticut | Georgia St. | 3.1 | 0.43 |
| Florida International | Connecticut | -9.8 | 0.81 |
| Duke | Connecticut | 15.6 | 0.06 |
| Utah St. | Connecticut | -7.0 | 0.73 |
| Connecticut | Rice | 4.0 | 0.36 |
| South Florida | Connecticut | -2.2 | 0.53 |
| Connecticut | Boston College | 7.0 | 0.27 |
| Connecticut | Tennessee | 29.7 | 0 |
| Connecticut | James Madison | 9.9 | 0.18 |
| Sacred Heart | Connecticut | -16.5 | 0.96 |
| Connecticut | Massachusetts | -12.5 | 0.88 |
Connect with sportsbooks to automatically sync your balances and bets >>
Returning Starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
HC Don Brown, formerly one of the country's best DC's, has an impossible task, here. In Year 1, he did the only sensible thing he could: Run the ball, bleed the clock, shorten games, and hope for the best. The good news is that the rushing offense finished a respectable No. 67, while the defense checked in at No. 54 overall. That defense, of course, was protected by the offensive strategy, which limited offensive possessions on both sides. But UMass isn't going to be competitive until it can throw the ball on offense and prevent getting stampeded at the line of scrimmage on defense. So will we see positive growth in those directions in Year 2?
Brown may have seen enough of 2022 starter QB Brady Olson, who had a 2/8 TD/INT ratio last year. He imported ex-Clemson and Georgia Tech QB Taisun Phommachanh, a former ballyhooed recruit who has attempted a mere 53 passes over his four-year career (while completing less than 50% of his passes). Phommachanh may have finally found a place he can see the field, but he'll have to dramatically improve as a passer for UMass to move beyond the "paint-by-numbers" stage of their evolution on that side of the ball. The run game should be okay, in part because four starting OL return. UMass' defense was strong against the pass and on third downs last year, but was gashed throughout the fall by the run. Brown has oodles of experience returning on that unit, and his secondary - the area of the team he personally oversees - will likely be the team's best individual unit again. But it's going to be a long fall if opponents can name their yardage total on every ground attempt again.
My system pegs UMass as the FBS' worst team. Merrimack, a newcomer to FCS as of 2019, is the one potential win you can point to on the schedule. Then again, UMass is only 4-4 against FCS teams since moving up to the FBS. Even if UMass takes care of business in that game, the path to a push is far from assured, and the path to the over is filled with land-mines. My system installs the Minutemen as underdogs in the other 11 games against FBS opponents, and only two of those games have preseason adjusted spreads lower than 8.5 points. Vegas has the right number here in lieu of circumstances, and therefore, we must pass.
| Away | Home | ATL | Win Odds |
| Massachusetts | New Mexico St. | 8.7 | 0.21 |
| Massachusetts | Auburn | 37.8 | 0 |
| Miami (OH) | Massachusetts | 11.8 | 0.14 |
| Massachusetts | Eastern Michigan | 12.5 | 0.12 |
| New Mexico | Massachusetts | 1.8 | 0.48 |
| Arkansas St. | Massachusetts | 5.1 | 0.33 |
| Toledo | Massachusetts | 22.3 | 0 |
| Massachusetts | Penn St. | 47.5 | 0 |
| Massachusetts | Army | 16.9 | 0.04 |
| Merrimack | Massachusetts | -4.5 | 0.66 |
| Massachusetts | Liberty | 17.9 | 0.02 |
| Connecticut | Massachusetts* | 12.5 | 0.12 |
Connect with sportsbooks to automatically sync your balances and bets >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
