Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Saturday, April 17 (2021)

We’re now more than two weeks into the MLB season, so we have some actionable data to work with. The MLB season is technically a marathon if we’re looking at season-long bets, but it’s really a series of shorter sprints with trends we can follow and utilize. We saw teams like the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics start the season off with losing streaks and then morph into two of the hottest teams in baseball.

The jury is still out on these “deadened” baseballs, but Jason Collette over at Rotowire and Fangraphs has been tracking the early data. Despite what we have seen happen to some of the best starting pitchers in baseball over the first couple of weeks, offense is down across the board:

https://twitter.com/jasoncollette/status/1382304371766140930?s=20

We’ll see if that “normalizes” in the coming months, but the first few weeks of a season tend to be indicative of how the rest of that season will go. For now, Collette argues that we should expect lower batting averages, on-base percentages, slugging percentages, and home runs, and more strikeouts. Our job as bettors is to pay attention and see how we can use this information to our advantage going forward.

Here are my top betting plays for Saturday, April 17. Have questions or just want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Atlanta Braves over Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+146)

	ATL	-1.5 +146.0	o8.5 -108	-118
JOIN NOW	CHC	+1.5 -176.0	u8.5 -112	EVEN

The safer pick in this one is the Braves -118 moneyline bet, but I’m taking the much better odds for what is essentially just one more run. Through the first two-plus weeks of the season, the Chicago Cubs have one of the worst offenses in baseball. They’re dead last in almost every major offensive metric. Look at these numbers:

wOBA: .262 (last)
AVG: .166 (last)
OBP: .267 (last)
WAR: -0.5 (last, and the only team with a negative number)
K%: 29.4% (last)
SLG: .307 (last)
OFF: -21.7 (last)

Braves starter Huascar Ynoa has a 0.75 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts in 12 innings this season, while the Cubs are countering with the veteran Trevor Williams and his 6.75 ERA (though that does come with a 3.14 FIP). After a slow start to the season, the Atlanta offense is starting to heat up. At the top of the order, Ronald Acuna is one of the hottest hitters on the planet, while Marcell Ozuna had three hits yesterday and is showing signs of life after his poor start. The bottom of the Atlanta order isn’t very good right now, but the top half should more than make up for it in this one.

Rays-Yankees UNDER 8 Runs (-114)

	TB	-1.5 +150.0	o8.0 -106	-104
JOIN NOW	NYY	+1.5 -182.0	u8.0 -114	-112

The Yankees are struggling so badly right now that their own fans starting throwing baseballs and other debris onto the field last night. Part of this is because of their roster and lineup construction. They’re a boom or bust offense with a lot of power that plays most of their games in small ballparks. Unfortunately, they are busting way more than they are booming right now. The boom is coming, and their main issue as the season goes on will probably be their pitching and not their offense. But the boom is unlikely to come today with Tyler Glasnow on the mound.

The Rays are the mirror opposite of the Yankees. Their budget-conscious lineup is filled with right/left platoons, and they use their depth more than any other team in baseball (or at least in the American League). Jordan Montgomery, New York’s starter on Saturday, has a 3.27 ERA through his first two starts of the season, including a five-inning outing against this Rays lineup the last time out in which he allowed four earned runs. It feels unlikely that either starter is going to implode in this one, and both teams boast above-average bullpens, even with some of their injuries. I’m riding the trends in pitching and offense and taking the under here. It’s 8.0 at most major sportsbooks and 7.5 at a few others.

Astros-Mariners UNDER 8.5 runs (-110)

	HOU	-1.5 +122.0	o8.5 -110	-132
JOIN NOW	SEA	+1.5 -146.0	u8.5 -110	+112

The Houston Astros moneyline is -139 and -135 at a bunch of other sportsbooks, but you can get it for -132 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Astros starter Zack Greinke is looking to bounce back after allowing six earned runs on 10 hits and three walks over 4 2/3 innings in his last start. He had thrown to quality starts prior to that disastrous outing, and he was particularly hurt by home runs in his last outing. Greinke also pointed to his slider being the problem, so it’s likely he will be working with a different pitch mix against the Mariners on Saturday. The veteran right-hander has been working with diminished velocity in recent years but is a savvy craftsman on the mound.

The Mariners are countering with Chris Flexen after their dramatic walk-off win on Friday night. Flexen is coming off a rough outing of his own, having allowed five earned runs against the Twins in Minnesota his last time out. Flexen bounced around the minor leagues for years before pitching in the KBO last season. He isn’t someone to be afraid of, but he did manage to toss five shutout innings in his first start of the season against the San Francisco Giants at home.

The catch here is that the Astros are dealing with a COVID situation and are currently without Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez. They still have Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel in that lineup, but the other five spots are going to be filled with players who are below replacement level. If the Astros are going to win this one, it’s going to be behind a strong performance from Greinke and the manufacturing of a few runs from the core of their remaining lineup. The under is 8.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook and most other sportsbooks other than William Hill, which currently has it as 8.0.

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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.