Another profitable 2-1 day on Wednesday brought our MLB best bets record to 4-1 for the week and 9-2 over our last 11 picks overall. We are back to continue that hot streak with another trio of plays today. Read on for our top three MLB picks and best bets for Friday, June 13th.
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Friday's Top MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-106) at Chicago Cubs (-110) | O/U 7.0 (-110/-110) MLB Picks
The term “hard luck loser” has become synonymous with Paul Skenes this year. Skenes has made 14 total starts and allowed just 19 earned runs overall, but the Pirates are only 6-8 when he toes the rubber. Thus, instead of backing Pittsburgh as underdogs against the division-leading Cubs, I am most confident in Skenes’ ability to neutralize the high-scoring Chicago offense, leading to another pitcher’s duel.
In Skenes’ last 10 starts, the final combined score between the Pirates and their opponents has seen three or fewer runs scored six times. Skenes leads the league in several statistical categories, like WAR, innings pitched, WHIP and H/9. His career winning percentage in road starts is better than at home, and his ERA is 1.26 runs lower in that split as well. He has won both of his starts at Wrigley Field while throwing 11 shutout innings, and I expect him to match zeros with Cubs rookie Cade Horton.
Paul Skenes is looking to add NL Cy Young to his already impressive resume ?"? pic.twitter.com/NkfyYSwza1
— MLB (@MLB) June 10, 2025
Pick: Under 7.0 Runs (-110)
New York Yankees (+122) at Boston Red Sox (-144) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110) MLB Picks
This exact pitching matchup between Ryan Yarbrough and Garrett Crochet took place last Saturday at Yankee Stadium when the Red Sox jumped out to an early 8-3 lead and held on for a 10-7 win, jumpstarting their series win over their division rivals.
Perhaps we should have seen that Yarbrough would have been in for a rough start in that outing, as he had not induced many ground balls (36th percentile in ground ball rate), while Boston has increased its fly ball output over the last three weeks.
The Red Sox also entered that game as one of the most potent lineups against left-handed pitching, ranking first in the Majors in batting average on balls in play (BABIP), third in hard-hit rate and fifth in wRC+. The result was Yarbrough being tagged for eight earned runs over just four innings, which equaled the amount of earned runs he had allowed in his previous nine appearances.
While it will be difficult for the two teams to replicate breaking out for 17 combined runs again, Boston is still sending its ace to the mound, and these are very generous odds given how we saw this matchup play out just six days ago.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-144)
Chicago White Sox (+160) at Texas Rangers (-190) | O/U 9.0 (-105/-115) MLB Picks
Jacob deGrom is Texas’ scheduled starter tonight, and he has been on an absolute tear of late. After knocking off the rust early in the season, he has started to look like his vintage self, who has won two Cy Young Awards and a Rookie of the Year award in his career.
In deGrom’s first eight starts of the season, he pitched to a 2.72 ERA, a .215 opponents’ average, threw 15.5 pitches per inning and lasted 5.1 innings per start. Over his last five starts, he has pitched to a 1.35 ERA, a .165 opponent’s average, thrown 13.3 pitches per inning and lasted 6.2 innings per start.
There is also a tremendous improvement in left-handed hitters’ opponent average against deGrom’s fastball each month. In March/April, left-handed batters hit .333 against deGrom’s fastball, but that has improved to .261 in May and .063 in June thus far.
With how inconsistent Texas’ offense has been and with how steep the Moneyline odds are for this game, the best value lies in backing Chicago’s team total under (which I will back up to 2.5 runs when the odds become available), as the White Sox have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last 12 games.
Pick: White Sox Team Total Under (TBD)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01