Friday’s Major League Baseball slate gets underway early with the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs playing a standalone game at 2:20 p.m. ET. That is where my MLB best bets for today begin, and I add two more plays from the evening games to the portfolio.
Read on for my top MLB picks & predictions for Friday, September 5th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday’s Best MLB Bets & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals (+187) at Chicago Cubs (-233) | O/U 10.5 (-103/-118)
The Nationals are not worthy of a look as a Moneyline underdog, even though they are coming off a three-game sweep of the Miami Marlins. That was Washington's first sweep in its last 30 series of three games or longer. Instead, I am looking to the under as the best value play for this game, given Washington's recent success among its pitching staff.
The Nationals allowed just seven total runs in their three-game sweep of the Marlins. They have held opponents to four runs or fewer eight times in the last 14 games, and their 4.69 ERA in that span is a vast improvement from their season-long 5.28 ERA, which ranks better than only the Colorado Rockies.
This wager bucks the trend that the over is 13-5-1 in Washington's 19 games following an off day. But Chicago is profitable to the under in that split (cashes 55% of the time), and has cashed the under at a 58.2% rate in its 60 games as home favorites.
Pick: Under 10.5 Runs (-118)
Toronto Blue Jays (+112) at New York Yankees (-136) | O/U 8.5 (-121/+100)
Upon returning from the injured list (IL) on June 16th, Giancarlo Stanton did not hit a home run in any of his first 12 games. Since then, he has had only one home run drought longer than three consecutive games, and his consistency and success against Kevin Gausman are why I am backing him with my only player prop wager today.
Gausman has been roughed up by several Yankees hitters in his career. He has allowed 14 home runs in 224 combined at-bats to current Yankees hitters, and Stanton is one of four (minimum 10 at-bats) with an OPS of 1.033 or better against the righty.
Stanton is 8-for-27 in his career against Gausman, with three of those hits being home runs. Let’s back Stanton to go yard in this series opener between two teams battling for the American League East crown.
Pick: Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+260)
Seattle Mariners (+118) at Atlanta Braves (-144) | O/U 7.5 (-111/-110)
After the trade deadline, many assumed the Seattle Mariners would catch and overtake the Houston Astros in the American League West. That prophecy has not entirely come to fruition just yet, with Seattle trailing Houston by 3.5 games and being unable to generate any momentum to win the division.
The Mariners rank 18th in wRC+ and 20th in OPS against left-handed pitching since the start of July. Now they face defending National League Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale, who should prove to be a tough matchup for them despite this only being his second start since returning from the IL. For what it’s worth, Sale was dominant in a no-decision against the Philadelphia Phillies in his last start, allowing just one earned run over six innings while striking out nine.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-144)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01