There are two MLB playoff games tonight. The Rays and Guardians battle in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS), and the Dodgers look to keep their season alive by defeating the Brewers in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series (NLCS). Below, I explain why I expect the Guardians to win a low-scoring game, then I highlight why Tyler Glasnow will shut down the Brewers early. Here are the best MLB picks for Thursday, October 15th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has been lights out this postseason. He has a 1.54 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 11.2 innings. While the Rays don't have terrible numbers against him in his career, Williams' performance against the Rays earlier this season gives me a lot of faith in him tonight.
In Williams' only start against the Rays this season, he allowed just one unearned run in 7.2 innings. The Guardians ultimately won that game 3-1. Though the Rays finished the regular season with the fewest strikeouts, Williams managed to ring up nine batters in that appearance.
Rays starter Griffin Jax isn't a great matchup for the Guardians. He's held them to .230 in his career, allowing just four extra-base hits and striking out 19. Yet, even though he's allowed one or fewer runs in his last five starts, he hasn't pitched more than five innings since July 28th.
If Jax can't pitch long tonight, I expect the Guardians to score plenty late against the Rays' bullpen. After all, all eight Guardians runs in this series have come after the fifth inning.
While the Guardians winning is my best bet for Game 3 of the ALCS, I also believe this will be a low-scoring game. As I've already highlighted, these are two hot pitchers. Williams dominated the White Sox in the American League Division Series (ALDS). And while his final start of the regular season saw him allow four earned runs to the Royals, he's allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight appearances.
Meanwhile, Jax saw his regular-season ERA drop from 4.10 on September 2nd to 3.53 by the end of the season. While he hasn't pitched at Progressive Field this season, he should continue to perform well, as the stadium ranks 15th in park factor this year.
And one last note about the ballpark. It's been very pitcher-friendly, with just 85 home runs being relinquished, the sixth-fewest in the Majors.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline (-130) & Under 6.5 Runs (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
This all comes down to Tyler Glasnow's dominance of the Brewers. In his career, Glasnow has allowed the Brewers to hit just .118 off him. He's faced 99 batters, walking just six and striking out 40. He's only allowed two extra-base hits and two earned runs.
For the Brewers, Dustin May is expected to start. While he pitched one perfect inning against the Dodgers on Monday, he has allowed at least two runs in four of his last five starts, despite pitching no more than three innings in any of those appearances.
In his career against the Dodgers, May has allowed 10 hits, four of which were doubles. With the season on the line in front of the home crowd, I expect the Dodgers to score at least once, which will be all it takes to win the first five innings with Glasnow on the mound.
Pick: Dodgers -0.5 First Five innings (-120)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.