The 2024 NFL regular season has 12 weeks in the rear-view mirror. In my opinion, we’ve arrived at the best week of the NFL season, with three Thanksgiving Day games, and the recently added Black Friday game.
It was a rough week for favorites, going just 9-4 straight up (SU), with the Dallas Cowboys (+10.5) and Tennessee Titans (+8) as the biggest upset winners outright. Favorites ended up edging the underdog 7-6 against the spread (ATS). And, if you like defense, you were out of luck, as the Over cashed in 10 of 13 games in Week 12. The Over is 18-9 in the past two weekends of NFL action.
What else did we learn from Week 11? Let’s take a look at a handful of the biggest takeaways.
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What We Learned From Week 12 of the 2024 NFL Season
They Might Be Giants
The New York Giants made a major personnel move last week. By now you’re well aware that the Giants not only demoted QB Daniel Jones from the starting quarterback job, but he was granted his release. Jones is hopeful of latching on with a team with playoff potential (sorry, Las Vegas Raiders!). But, enough about him.
Instead of going with QB Drew Lock, who has plenty of NFL experience, he remains nailed to the bench, and everyone’s favorite Jersey Boy is back under center. QB Tommy Devito, the Livingston, N.J. native, made the start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday. And, the Bucs ended up trampling “Tommy Cutlets” and the G-Men, and even QB Baker Mayfield was tossing some shade with a mock TD celebration the Giants QB made famous last season.
We learned that the Giants just don’t care about winning, and that’s great news at the betting window. New York is 0-6 ATS in the past six games, and they’ve scored seven or fewer points in three of the past six games, and 18 or fewer points in five of the previous six outings. The Under is on a 2-0 run for the Giants, and that just might be the start.
Fading the Giants is a strong move in future weeks, and you really have to feel for rookies RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. and WR Malik Nabers. They look like future stars in the NFL, but they need an offensive line, a fellow wide receiver, an offensive line, a coach, a quarterback, etc.
Las Vegas Faders
The Las Vegas Raiders will also have a quarterback change, although this was not a coaching decision, but due to injury. QB Gardner Minshew was crushed on a hit, and he suffered a broken collarbone as a result. While, again, Jones is not an option on The Strip, some things old are new again.
QB Aidan O’Connell is looking to fast-track a return from a broken thumb suffered four weeks ago. He has been on the Injured Reserve for the past month, with Minshew holding down the fort. If O’Connell has some kind of setback, QB Desmond Ridder could get his first start in Silver and Black.
It doesn’t help that the Raiders have a quick turnaround, playing in the league’s second annual Black Friday game in Kansas City. Whoever starts, it’s a rather tall order trying to get back on track and take down QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Looking back to the time O’Connell was in the lineup, the Raiders went 0-3 SU in his three starts, while going 1-3 ATS in his four appearances. The only cover came in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 7, as the Raiders lost 20-15. Minshew saw a majority of the snaps in that game, as O’Connell broke his thumb in the first half.
Thursday Was For The Dawgs
The Cleveland Browns picked up an outright win in the snow at Huntington Bank Field in Week 12 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Did you know that the Browns have won seven games in a row…on Thursday? It’s true. That’s why Browns fans are up in arms at the fact the NFL has elected to flex the Browns and Bengals out of the TNF slot in Week 16 in favor of the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers.
While Cleveland’s Dawg Pound was elated with the snowflakes and victory over the Steelers, it’s been favorites that have been dominant on Thursdays, not ‘dogs.
Favorites have won six of the past nine Thursday night games outright, although underdogs have cashed in two of the past three TNF games while going 3-2 ATS in the previous five on the day. The Over has dominated at a 6-2 clip in the past eight games, including that snowy game in The Land.
Anyway, with three Thursday night games on tap for Thanksgiving, it seems now is as good a time as any to check out the Thursday trends.
Daniel E. Dobish is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Daniel, check out his archive and follow him @danieledobish.