Welcome to the Friday baseball slate. Playoff baseball is on the horizon. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best MLB picks for the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We had another winning week last week and have done well for six straight outings. Be sure to check out my NRFI articles as well because those have been straight cash printers throughout 2026. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, September 11th.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 2-1 | This Season: 37-32
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting in Atlanta, we have a battle between National League East foes as the Phillies and Braves jockey for the divisional crown. The Phillies will start Aaron Nola, who has been better than his seasonal numbers suggest. Despite a 4.76 ERA this season, that number drops all the way down to 1.80 over his last five starts, with three of them coming on the road. In each of his last five starts, Nola has gone at least five innings and has held opponents to a .582 OPS. Not bad.
Atlanta counters with Chris Sale, who's been electric, spinning a 1.45 home ERA this season. In his three starts against the Phillies in 2026, Sale has allowed just three runs in 19 innings. Overall, I'm not sure how the total is as high as it is for the first five innings. These offenses are solid but not exactly unstoppable, and we've seen these two pitchers handle business plenty of times before. Neither bullpen ranks in the top half of the league since the All-Star break, so I'm going to stick to the first five innings, but I'd consider some alts if you're feeling risky.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-135 at bet365)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
For another inter-divisional game today, we have the Pirates traveling to The Friendly Confines to take on the Cubs. Friendly reminder that this game starts at 2:20 p.m. ET, so make sure to get your bets in. I know I went out of order, but I feel so strongly about the Phillies-Braves bet I had to lead with it. Shota Imanaga gets the nod for the Cubs, and he's been up and down of late with a 5.96 August ERA before pitching six innings of one-run ball in his last start. He's actually been worse at home this year, but what really stands out is how he's handled the Pirates.
In 2026, Imanaga has made two starts against Pittsburgh, allowing zero runs and just four hits over 12 innings. Pirates hitters have struggled against the southpaw historically and are overall worse against lefties this season.
Meanwhile, Braxton Ashcraft is coming off a rough outing, and the Cubs posted four runs on him the last time they faced him at Wrigley Field. Returning home, the Cubs feel due for an offensive burst, and I think it's off the back of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The MVP favorite not only hits righties better but is 5-for-12 lifetime off Ashcraft with three extra-base hits. I have a double-whammy of picks for you in this game that you can pair together for a same-game parlay (SGP) or just bet them separately.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-120 at bet365) & Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-135 at bet365)
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Keeping it simple here, the Red Sox should dominate the Royals tonight in Boston. The Red Sox need to hold serve to get closer to clinching a Wild Card spot, and with Sonny Gray on the bump tonight, they'll do just that. Gray owns a 2.69 ERA and is coming off a scoreless seven-inning effort in his last start. The Red Sox’s bullpen has been the third-best unit in baseball since the All-Star break, and in that same time, only the Cubs have scored more runs than the Red Sox.
Sure, they've cooled off a bit, but they're still the much better offense here. Kansas City, meanwhile, will start Seth Lugo, who has a 6.14 road ERA. The Royals starter has an 8.51 ERA in his last five starts, allowing five or more runs in three of them. The Red Sox will be just fine tonight, and getting this bet at plus money is remarkable.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
