Skip to main content Skip to navigation Skip to footer
Contest

Top 4 Super Bowl Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks (49ers vs. Chiefs)

Author image by Mike Spector | @MikeSpector01 | Feb 1, 2024
Author image by Mike Spector | @MikeSpector01 | Feb 1, 2024
Super Bowl LIX By the Numbers: Chiefs vs. Eagles (2025)

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers each won their respective Conference Championship Games by one possession last weekend, setting up a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, which the Chiefs won 31-20.

Patrick Mahomes improved to 4-2 in his career in AFC Championship Games, posting a 12-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the process. On the other side, Kyle Shanahan improved to 2-2 in NFC Championship Games as 49ers head coach, and he looks to lead San Francisco to its first Super Bowl title in 29 years. Quarterback Brock Purdy is coming off his fourth playoff wins in his first two seasons, which is tied for the second-most since 1950, and he goes head-to-head against Mahomes, who is looking for his third Super Bowl title.

In this article, we offer our best player prop wager for both Mahomes and Purdy, and submit our best plays regarding two other position players.

Read on for our Best Early Super Bowl Player Prop Bets.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Best Early Super Bowl Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Brock Purdy O/U 12.5 Rushing Yards | (-110/-120) 

According to the following post by sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes, the Over on Brock Purdy’s rushing yards is among the most popular early player prop wagers at BetMGM. But not only do we prefer to be on the contrarian side of this play, we believe the public is overreacting to Purdy’s solid day on the ground last week.

Purdy had 48 yards rushing last week, including 49 in the second half and three rushing first downs. The ball was in his hands a lot in the second half as the 49ers were busy completing the third-largest comeback (from 24-7 down) in Conference Championship history.

In the first half of the NFC Championship, Purdy had a 37 Total QBR and completed 47% of his passes for 6.2 yards per attempt. In the second half, he had a 99 Total QBR and completed 81% of his passes for 10.9 yards per attempt. We do not expect this game to get too out of hand early, which will force Shanahan to call a more traditional game, limiting Purdy’s rushing ceiling in the process.

Purdy had nine or fewer rushing yards in the final six games of the regular season, and only had 13 or more rushing yards in six of 18 games this season. The Over for Lamar Jackson’s 63.5 rushing yards total was one of the most popular player prop wagers last weekend, and the Chiefs held him to 54 yards on eight carries. We expect Kansas City to similarly hold Purdy, who is not known for his legs, under his projected total as well.

Bet: Purdy Under 12.5 rushing yards (-120)

George Kittle O/U 20.5 Yards on Longest Reception | (-115/-115) 

For the record, George Kittle’s projected receiving yards total has lowered from 52.5 at some sportsbooks to a consensus of 46.5 this week, and we agree with that line movement, as he was held catchless in the first half of Sunday's NFC Championship victory over the Detroit Lions, finishing with just two receptions on three targets for 27 yards. And while we would still play the Under on his total receiving yards even at the lower number, there is reason for optimism for Kittle to produce at least one long catch, as he has exceeded 53 yards receiving in five of the previous seven weeks.

The Chiefs defense entered the AFC Championship ranked 11th in receiving yards allowed and fifth in yards per reception to tight ends since Week 10, but Kansas City is an aggressive blitzing defense, and Kittle’s 21.3 yards per reception on plays with a blitz ranks second in the league.

The O/U on Kittle’s number of receptions is 3.5 and the Over is juiced to -150. But even if he is limited to as few as four catches, we expect him to break a big gain on at least one.

Bet: Kittle’s longest reception Over 20.5 yards (-115)

Christian McCaffrey O/U 92.5 Rushing Yards | (-115/-115) 

The Baltimore Ravens’ game plan in the AFC Championship came under much scrutiny, as they completely abandoned the running game that was largely responsible for them earning the conference’s No. 1 seed. Through the first 18 games, Ravens running backs averaged 21.9 rushes per game, 101.4 rushing yards per game, and 4.6 yards per rush. But in the Conference Championship, they totaled just six rushes for 23 yards and 3.8 yards per rush. Perhaps most confusing is that Gus Edwards’ first carry of the game went for 15 yards, and he did not receive another carry until the second half. Instead, Baltimore continued to challenge a Kansas City secondary that entered the game allowing the fewest passing yards per attempt since Week 13.

We do not expect Shanahan to open himself to criticism in the way that John Harbaugh and Todd Monken have been criticized for the loss, and we expect him to force feed his All-Pro running back all game. While Shanahan has a tendency to use running backs by committee in the regular season, McCaffrey totaled 20 rushes in the NFC Championship Game to Elijah Mitchell’s and Kyle Juszczyk’s five total carries.

McCaffrey has 93-plus rushing yards in six of the previous eight games, and seven of the last 10. He should have a big day against a Chiefs defense that entered the AFC Championship ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in explosive run rate and league’s worst stuff rate defense since Week 13.

Bet: McCaffrey Over 92.5 rushing yards (-115)

Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP | (+120) 

Sometimes when prognosticating NFL games of this magnitude, who wins often comes down to who has the best quarterback and head coach. In this matchup, the answer is far and away Kansas City, as Patrick Mahomes has more regular season wins, playoff wins, AFC titles, passing touchdowns, less interceptions, and a better quarterback rating than Tom Brady did in his first six seasons, as Adam Schefter pointed out. In addition, Andy Reid is coaching in his fifth Super Bowl, and his teams have a great track record off a bye week, going 28-5 SU including the postseason.

Oddsmakers essentially have this as a coin-flip game, as no sportsbook has a point spread greater than San Francisco -1.5. Thus, since we expect the Chiefs to win, we are getting great value on Mahomes' Super Bowl MVP odds, since he was MVP of their first two Super Bowl victories, and quarterbacks have taken home the MVP award in 10 of the previous 14 Super Bowls.

After the 17-10 win over Baltimore in the AFC Championship, Mahomes is now 10-1-1 ATS and 9-3 SU as an underdog in his career. And NFL senior researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno highlighted that this is the fourth Super Bowl rematch of head coaches all-time, and those that won the first matchup also won the second.

One thing we can count on is Mahomes playing a clean game and not putting his team in bad positions. His 203 consecutive pass attempts without an interception are the third-most in postseason history (34 behind Tom Brady's all-time record). In addition, he has an 11-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six playoff games, and even though his 6.2 yards per attempt against the Ravens were his second-lowest in his playoff career, he still finished with a 91.1 QBR and threw for 241 yards.

Bet: Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP (+120)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.