Let’s dive into Sunday Night Football for Week 14 and look at our top pick for Eagles vs. Cowboys. We’ll provide the betting outlook for each team along with our best bet for tonight’s Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL Sunday Night Football Picks
Christmas is coming a few weeks early for Sunday Night Football, as Week 14 features an absolute gem with the Eagles traveling to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in their second matchup of the season. The Eagles came out on top in the first game in Philly, winning and covering the game though they were outgained by more than 100 yards and arguably outplayed by Dallas. This game comes at a really tough time for the Eagles, who have played an absolute gauntlet of a schedule since Week 9 with consecutive games against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills and 49ers. For comparison, the Cowboys have played the Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Commanders and Seahawks over that same span. This week's matchup will go a long way in determining the NFC East champion, so let's dig into the matchup.
Eagles Outlook
Though the Eagles currently hold the best record in the NFL at 10-2, their point differential of +41 is a whopping 127 points fewer than the Cowboys, who lead the league at +168. Philadelphia's defense sustained some key defensive injuries early in the season, which has contributed to them ranking 28th and 29th in yards and points allowed per drive, respectively. They allow 1st downs to be converted by their opponents at a bottom-5 rate, and their pass defense has been horrendous. They rank 18th in net yards allowed per attempt, and 25th or worse in TDs allowed, total yards allowed and interceptions. They've been slightly better defending the run, but still rank 16th in yards allowed per rushing attempt. Offensively though, the Eagles have still been among the best in the NFL despite the questionable health of Jalen Hurts. They rank 7th in yards gained per possession and top-5 in points per possession, time of possession, percentage of drives that end in a score and 1st downs gained. Their passing attack ranks just outside the top-10 in net yards per attempt and their running game ranks top-10 in total yards, though their yards per attempt are somewhat skewed due to the tush push. Simply put, the Eagles are still a very good team that has won games by any means necessary, but they haven't shown the same dominance on both sides of the ball as they displayed on their Super Bowl run last year.
Cowboys Outlook
Dallas enters this contest riding a 4-game winning streak, boasting the #1 offense in the NFL in terms of points per possession, time of possession and 1st downs gained. Dak Prescott has vaulted himself to the top of the MVP discussion, leading the league with 26 TD passes to only 6 INTs and ranking 6th overall in net yards per attempt. Their running game has been stymied a bit with the loss of Ezekiel Elliot in the offseason, but they still rank just outside the top-10 in both rushing TDs and total rushing yardage. They have taken great care of the ball this season as well, ranking 2nd in the entire league in turnover percentage. The Cowboys certainly have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, as they've been playing at a top-10 level all season long. They rank top-6 in INTs, 1st downs allowed, net yards per pass attempt, opponent's time of possession and yards allowed per possession. They also rank in the top-10 in turnovers created and points allowed per possession, while coming just outside the top-10 in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Cowboys have also been dynamite at home this season, going 6-0 with an average winning margin of a ridiculous 25.17 PPG.
Best Bet
I find the line to be a point too high for this matchup, and I do think that getting the hook with the Eagles is absolutely paramount. Both teams were blasted against a common opponent in the 49ers, and Philadelphia came away a win and cover in the initial matchup between these two. Although Dallas has looked to be the better of these two teams in recent weeks, they've done so against much weaker competition. The Eagles have also had to deal with some pretty awful weather conditions outdoors recently, which I think is blunting some of their offensive performance. Both teams and coaching staffs know each other extremely well, and both teams are playing for an extremely valuable prize to hold the top spot in the NFC East. I would not be surprised to see either team win this game, so I'll take the free points with this Eagles team that has consistently found a way to win games this year, albeit in an uglier fashion than their 2022 campaign.
Pick: PHI +3.5
