The weekend is here, and some great pitching matchups are slated for this Friday night slate. First, we’re going to break down the matchup between an ace that has hit his stride and a team that again looks like a bottom feeder. Then we’ll head to the Trop, where the Rays will be looking to do some home cooking, get their weekend series, and get a leg up on the AL Central leaders.
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 6:35 pm ET
After getting battered by the Giants in his second start of the season, Yu Darvish responded by keeping two of the NL’s best lineups quiet. In his last two starts, which came against the Dodgers and the defending World Series Champions, the Atlanta Braves, Darvish has begun to utilize his fastball more, and it has led to sustained success. Combined, he’s allowed one run on five hits and struck out 15 over his last two outings, and now he’ll be tasked with a much easier lineup.
The Pirates are off to their annual rough start as it’s been a combination of subpar pitching performances and a lineup that lacks power. However, they do have some talent as Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and a resurgent Michael Chavis have done the heavy lifting thus far. Although, three solid bats are not enough to get the job done against Darvish, as despite their efforts, the Pirates are hitting just .229 as a team and -11 in runs above average.
Thier man on the mound may be in for his third consecutive rough outing as the Padres have been one of the hotter lineups in the National League. Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer are both hitting around .400. While the rest of thier lineup stats don’t necessarily jump off the page, the Padres are still ninth in the majors in wRC+.
They are all in line to feast on the Pirates’ Zach Thompson as he’s not only allowed 17 runs in ten innings of work this year but plenty of hard contact to go with it. Thompson is in the bottom half of the league in hard-hit rate and in the bottom third of the league in walk rate. The solid contact combined with the high amount of baserunners has put each of his expected stats in the bottom ten percent of the league.
San Diego should get out ahead early and build a comfortable lead as their ace shuts down the Pirates.
Pick: San Diego F5 -0.5 (-120)
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays 7:10 pm ET
Minnesota has been a team on the rise for some time now and has built a formidable lineup now that their five-tool stud outfield, Byron Buxton, is healthy. However, the man they’ll be up against in this matchup has a long history of giving them trouble. Corey Kluber has faced the meat of this Twins order 102 times in his career and has held them quiet. In that sample size, the Twins are hitting just .186 with a 36.3 strikeout rate.
As for the Rays lineup, they’ll face Dylan Bundy, who has been giving us flashbacks of his success in LA. While his expected stats may be eye-popping, and he’s entering this start with a 0.59 ERA, he has not missed a ton of bats this year. Bundy is in the bottom half of the league in both strikeout and whiff rate. The Rays have proven to be a pesky lineup that can string hits together to generate offense as Wander Franco and Ji-Man Choi have led the majority of those offensive spurts. However, guys like Manuel Margot, Yandy Diaz, and Taylor Walls have been hitting the cover off the ball but just haven’t seen results yet.
So with the Rays lineup trending in the right direction and Kluber’s remarkable history against these Twins, they should take control early on.
Pick: Tampa Bay F5 PK (-130)
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