Well, I hope you took the over in Philadelphia’s duel with Washington last night! The two teams combined for 277 points, with Bradley Beal (60) and Joel Embiid (38) doing most of the damage. The Sixers will play again tonight, and we’ll have to see if they can maintain their high-scoring pace.
Here are the top NBA betting plays for Thursday, January 7, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson, Raju Byfield, Isaiah Sirois, and Vaughn Dalzell (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):
Check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here >>
Betting Locks of the Day
Bisson: Grizzlies -5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The Grizzlies are by no means a juggernaut, but they should have little trouble dispatching a Cleveland team that has been ravaged by injuries and will be playing the tail end of a back-to-back. The Cavs haven’t scored more than 100 points in the past five games, so Memphis shouldn’t have to work all that hard on either end to secure the cover.
Byfield: Lakers -5.5 (-106 at FD Sportsbook)
This contest could turn into a rest fest for the Lakers, but if LeBron James suits up, Los Angeles should still be able to win by five points. This line should drop, too. We could it fall to -4 or -4.5 once Anthony Davis and KCP are confirmed to be out, so wait a bit before locking this in at FanDuel. San Antonio has been one of the worst teams in the league this season, and despite their surprise win over the Clippers, they do not match up well against the Lakers, even without Anthony Davis.
Sirois: Nets +1.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The Sixers are on the wrong side of a back-to-back, and I expect the Nets to capitalize, even though they won't have Kevin Durant. Joel Embiid just played 37 minutes, and last season, he routinely got fewer minutes (or just straight-up sat) in similar situations. Likewise, Tobias Harris just played 41 minutes, and the last time he got so much run in the first half of a back-to-back, he played only 22 minutes the next game (see: Raptors at Clippers, Dec. 2018). While the Sixers play good defense, the Nets rank fourth in offensive efficiency (1.108) and third in points per game (119.5). My model favors them by roughly a half-point, which suggests that there's value in taking them as underdogs tonight.
Dalzell: Nuggets and Mavericks Over 224.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
Denver had no trouble scoring 122 and 123 points versus Minnesota, and Dallas scored 103 in a loss to Chicago and 113 in a win over Houston. Both those defenses compare to Denver’s right now, and Dallas could drop 110 tonight. Dallas scored 106, 109, and 113 points in three meetings last season, and Denver is 6-0 on the O/U on one day of rest. Denver has only played two road games, Minnesota and Sacramento.
Best Team Props of the Day
Bisson: Mavericks Under 111.5 Points (-108 at FD Sportsbook)
The Nuggets just can’t seem to get it together on the defensive end of the floor, as they boast the league’s worst defensive rating going into Thursday’s meeting with Dallas. But the Mavericks haven’t looked good with the basketball, even with Luka Doncic returning to form. And both teams rank in the bottom-three in pace this season, which further torpedoes the Mavs’ chances of reaching their team total.
Byfield: Blazers First Quarter -3.5 (-106 at FD Sportsbook)
Minnesota has been the worst team in the league in first-quarter scoring margin (-7.3), and they will be facing a Blazers team that has scored over 33 first-quarter points in each of their last three contests. Portland has the largest first-quarter margin over that stretch at an impressive +10.
Sirois: Cavaliers Under 25.5 First-Quarter Points (-122 at FD Sportsbook)
I love to target quarter-based mismatches with my team props, and that's exactly what we have with the Grizzlies and Cavs this evening. The injury-riddled Cavs average a measly 22.8 first-quarter points per game, the fewest in the league, while the Grizzlies allow just 24.9 first-quarter points per game, the fifth-fewest. The Cavs haven't hit this over since their third game of the year; coincidentally, that's also when they lost Kevin Love. With Love still sidelined, don't expect them to get their early-game offense turned around against the Grizzlies.
Dalzell: Blazers First Quarter -3.5 (-106 at FD Sportsbook)
Let’s keep rolling with the first quarter bets and take Portland tonight. Portland is averaging 36.0 PPG over their last three games in the opening frame, and Minnesota is at 25.0. The Blazers aren’t winning games cleanly, but they’ve started hot, and against Minnesota, that shouldn’t be too difficult to continue.
Best Player Props of the Day
Bisson: Caris LeVert Over 17.5 Points (-104 at FD Sportsbook)
This feels like free money. Not only does LeVert get to face a Sixers team that will likely be a little gassed from Wednesday’s slugfest with the Wizards, but he also ranks 18th in the NBA in usage rate (29.4) despite being the sixth man on a team with both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. With Durant out, look for LeVert to shoot often Thursday; his minutes should be safe even if this one gets out of hand, which only increases his shot at surpassing his point prop.
Byfield: Collin Sexton Under 24.5 Points (-102 at FD Sportsbook)
Sexton picked up an ankle injury on Wednesday, which looked to have a correlative effect on him dropping below .500 shooting for just the second time all season. His unbelievable shooting clip is unsustainable, but his scoring production is legit. The question here is not shot volume, as Sexton has the green light to shoot at will, it’s whether or not the ankle injury will prevent him from being efficient enough from the field to hit the sky-high 24.5 number at FanDuel. The bet here is that it will.
Sirois: Tobias Harris Under 20.5 Points (-120 at FD Sportsbook)
Harris just played a whopping 41 minutes on Wednesday, yet he scored just 19 points. Through eight games, the veteran is averaging only 19.3 points per game and .59 points per minute. He's cleared this total in just three of his eight games so far. While the Nets don't have a great defense, as they allow the 17th-most points per game (111.2), Harris probably won't be asked to do a whole lot. With his per-minutes average, he'd need to play 35-plus to hit the over, and there's no way that happens a day after he played almost the whole game.
Dalzell: Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Assists (-105 at FD Sportsbook)
Luka Doncic averages 9.0 assists in five career meetings with the Nuggets, the fifth-highest total versus any team, and he’s fresh off a season-high 11-assist game. Denver surrenders 116.0 PPG (23rd) and 27.9 APG (26th), making this a favorable bet on Doncic. He hasn’t hit this all season until his last performance, but this Denver defense is terrible. Doncic has gone over this total in four-of-five career meetings with the Nuggets and two-straight.
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