The Bucks just set the NBA three-point record against the Miami Heat last night with 29. They’ll play them on the second half of a back-to-back in a slate that promises excitement.
Here are the top NBA betting plays for Wednesday, December 30, provided by BettingPros experts Raju Byfield, Isaiah Sirois, and Vaughn Dalzell (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):
Check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here >>
Betting Locks of the Day
Byfield: Bucks -6 (-118 at FOX Bet)
With or without Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat showed that they hadn’t made the roster improvements of their Eastern Conference rival Milwaukee Bucks. Butler is out, and Milwaukee should be able to cover the spread easily. The Bucks with Jrue Holiday are a far superior team to the team Miami embarrassed in the bubble, and they will have to adjust to the new talent level before hopefully being more competitive if they meet in the playoffs.
Sirois: Bucks -6 (-118 at FOX Bet)
The Bucks just dismantled the Heat by a 47-point margin last night, and they didn't overuse their starters in the blowout win. Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brooks Lopez, and Donte DiVincenzo all logged 25 or fewer minutes, while Jrue Holiday clocked in at 26. The Heat rested some of their players, like Goran Dragic (9 minutes) and Meyers Leonard (2), but they left Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn in for 30-plus minutes. The Bucks are still fresh enough to cover. You shouldn’t overthink this spread — the Bucks are averaging a league-high 128.2 points per game to Miami's 105.
Dalzell: Celtics -4.5 (-112 at DK Sportsbook)
The Memphis Grizzlies are down Ja Morant for the next month, and the second half of the Nets game didn’t show much to believe in without him. Memphis barely escaped Brooklyn in the previous game, and Boston will be on the second night of back to back, but still capable of handling this Memphis team. For the time being, too much responsibility falls on Dillon Brooks and Jonas Valanciunas’ shoulders for the short-term.
Best Team Props of the Day
Byfield: Bucks First Quarter -1.5 (-114 at FD Sportsbook)
This appears to be a rare true value line. I had every expectation that this spread would have been set at -2 or -2.5, but the -1.5 was gifted thanks to the spread being -5.5 at FanDuel. Take advantage of this line as soon as possible, as the spread will likely climb to -6 or -6.5 by game time, resulting in the first quarter spread rising to initial expectations. The Bucks are also my lock of the day, and I fully expect them to come out firing against the Heat once again. The Heat will have a tough time dealing with the new-look Bucks offense. This line is a potential multi-unit option.
Sirois: Celtics Fourth Quarter Under 27.5 Points (-130 at FD Sportsbook)
This line busted yesterday for the first time all season. Heading into last night's game, Boston's fourth-quarter totals were 24, 18, and 21 points. Their 33-point performance in the fourth last night came after the Pacers took an 11-point lead in the third, and their comeback win required large workloads from Tristan Thompson (27 minutes), who is out, and Jayson Tatum (40 minutes), who is questionable with a thumb sprain and a candidate for rest tonight.
Dalzell: Heat First Half Over 54.5 Points (-127 at DK Sportsbook)
The Heat got embarrassed in their last game. In the first half, Miami only scored 51 points but allowed 83 to the Bucks. I’d expect that to level out this time around and both teams to score at least 50 points. The Heat will come out determined, and if they score 30-plus points in the first quarter, this should be an easy one. I played the Celtics yesterday on a back-to-back, and I’ll support the Heat this time but in a different way.
Best Player Props of the Day
Byfield: Gordon Hayward Over 18.5 Points (-104 at FD Sportsbook)
Hayward has scored 28 points in two of his three contests this season, and he is the engine of Charlotte’s offense. There is no reason he should be listed this low against a team without a lockdown defender, as Hayward should easily see enough usage and shots to hit at least 20 points, if not 25 points. The juice is on the under for this contest, but the over is the play based on form and opponent.
Sirois: Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
This is a high total, but it's one I expect Doncic to clear with ease. While Doncic's average points per game (27.7) leaves something to be desired, it's worth noting that his two worst games came against a strong Lakers defense and in a blowout win over the Clippers (in which he played only 26 minutes). Doncic posted a triple-double and 39 points against the Hornets last season, his sixth-best showing on the year, and I expect him to drop at least 31 against them tonight.
Dalzell: Luka Doncic Over 48.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (DK Sportsbook)
Luka Doncic has yet to a double-double this season but posted 24 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists in his previous game, a blowout over the Clippers. Doncic did that in 26 minutes and has yet to surpass 36 minutes played in any game this season. Without Kristaps Porzingis, Doncic is another solid bet to have an all-around effort.
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