Ah, the trade deadline. With teams trying to get in last-minute deals to buy or sell their players, chaos will shape tonight’s 11-game slate. Our experts have done their best to produce leans and locks for the evening’s action, but make sure to stay on top of the headlines before placing any of these bets!
Here are the top NBA betting plays for Wednesday, March 24, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
Betting Lock of the Day
Sirois: Nuggets -3 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The Raptors are on a nine-game losing streak, and they just lost to the Rockets. Houston hadn't won a game since Feb. 4 before that point! With the trade deadline upon us, there is a good chance that Toronto will keep Kyle Lowry out of tonight's matchup, and that'll make it even easier for Denver to cover. The Nuggets are on the wrong end of a back-to-back, but the Raptors have failed to capitalize when playing with a rest advantage this season. They have gone just 2-5 ATS in such situations. My efficiency-based betting model favors the Nuggets by a 3.5-point margin, giving us enough edge for me to take them against this spread.
Top Team Prop of the Day
Sirois: Pacers Under 112.5 (-105 at FD Sportsbook)
The Pistons give up the 10th-fewest points per game (110.8) and play at the 12th-slowest pace. They have gotten tougher defensively while slowing down recently, and they rank sixth-best in defensive efficiency over their last three games. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers have listed point guard Malcolm Brogdon as questionable heading into this one, and they have made him available for trade. Indiana scored just 111 points against the Pistons earlier in the year, and Brogdon was responsible for 18 of them. He is their only starter with an offensive RAPTOR rating above 1.0, per FiveThirtyEight. Of course, I still like this under even if Brogdon plays, as the Pistons haven't given up 113 points since before the All-Star Break. Teams have surpassed this total just twice in the 15 games since Detroit benched Blake Griffin.
Top Player Prop of the Day
Sirois: De'Aaron Fox Over 26.5 Points (-112 at FD Sportsbook)
I love Fox tonight. The Hawks give up the ninth-most points per game to point guards, and Fox dropped 32 of them the last time he faced Atlanta — 30% of Sacramento's total score! Fox has averaged 27.7 points per game since the All-Star Break, but that figure jumps to 29.7 if you ignore an outlier performance against the 76ers that came in a blowout loss. With his game projected for the slate's third-highest point total (230), look for Fox to maintain his streak of high-scoring games.
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
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