Another NBA Sunday is upon us and it includes a pretty loaded schedule. There are plenty of solid matchups on the slate with some high-profile stars taking the court. Here are a few of the spots on the slate that I'm targeting as best bets for Sunday.
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Sunday's NBA Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers
The last time we saw the Spurs, they were going toe to toe with the Milwaukee Bucks in a game where Victor Wembanyama and Giannis Antetokounmpo traded haymakers. It was another game where the Spurs showed a ton of fight for a national audience. However, they're 5-29 for a reason, because of how they look when all the eyes aren't on them.
The Spurs this season have had a relatively putrid offense. They rank 29th in opponent adjusted offensive rating. They play at one of the fastest paces in the league and turn the ball over at one of the highest rates in the league. This tends to lead to a lot of overs, because of fast break chances and high possession games. That's how the Spurs have a 21-13 record to the over this season. Cleveland will present a strong challenge to that trend on Sunday.
The Cavaliers have a top-five defense per adjusted defensive efficiency and have continued their success through a rash of injuries. They play a slow pace, the seventh slowest in the league, and should have the ability to slow down the Spurs, getting them out of sorts and could make the half court game ugly.
The Spurs have gone under in four of five games, the lone exception being the second night of a back-to-back. For Cleveland, the Cavaliers have held four of their last six opponents to 110 or less. They should be able to limit San Antonio's scoring here and their pace of play dictates they aren't likely to put up 125 or more points. At the current number, the under is the best spot in this game.
Pick: Under 237.5 (-110)
Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets
Last week, Detroit snapped an NBA record 28-game losing streak. In that time, the Pistons went 8-19-1 ATS. However, it really seems like the team has turned a corner in the last week or so. In their last six games, they've managed to go 5-1 ATS and have looked like a much more competitive team.
The biggest change in Detroit at that time is the return of young center Jalen Duren. His return has correlated with an improved play from the center position for Detroit and there are few teams where that is as important when facing than the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokic creates such a mismatch for most teams, but Duren has the athleticism and skill to stay with him.
The Nuggets are far and away the better team but this line reflects a reeling Detroit team. It's not indicative of the way Detroit has been playing lately. It is just way too many points for the Nuggets to be laying in this spot of a third game in four days. It's an ugly pick, but Detroit is the right side here.
Pick: Pistons +17 (-110)
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
Have the Lakers hit rock bottom? With four straight losses, there are a lot of questions being asked about the roster construction and the coaching. This is still the team that not even a month ago won the In-Season Tournament. We've seen this before, even last year when the Lakers looked cooked early in the season and were able to turn it around and make the playoffs. They'll make their run again this season, and I like that to start with a good performance against the Clippers on Sunday.
The Clippers struggled early to get James Harden integrated into the roster, but lately, he's started playing better and that has led to the Clippers playing better as well. They've won 14 of 16 games and are on a four-game ATS winning streak. This is a really good opportunity to fade a team that seems like it cannot lose right now.
Adjusted net ratings have these teams about a four-point difference which could be interpreted on a neutral floor. Although this is the same home court for both teams, it is far from neutral. The Lakers still own Los Angeles and that should provide a few points of advantage. I'll take this opportunity to fade a hot road team and back a reeling home team.
Pick: Lakers +3 (-110)
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