Game 2 is set to get underway in two Second Round series’ of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Thursday with some great betting angles to attack. Below, I give out my two best bets for Thursday’s games.
Both of these plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bet $10, Win $200 if Either Team Scores a Goal >>
Tampa Bay Lightning (+140) @ Florida Panthers (-160), o/u 6.5 (-105/-115)
Following their 4-1 win on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Lightning will look to steal another win from the Florida Panthers and return home with a 2-0 series lead. Game 1 was as lopsided as the score indicates as the Lightning win that game 66.8% of the time after 1000 game simulations by MoneyPuck.com.
Entering this contest on a three-game win streak, I expect Tampa Bay to take another win and head back home with a vice grip on Florida. During this three-game win streak, starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been dominant for the Lightning as he boasts a 0.949 save percentage and 1.67 goals allowed average.
While there are legitimate questions to be raised about whether the Lightning can keep winning without star forward Brayden Point, history suggests that the Lightning will be just fine. Including Game 1 of this series, the Lightning are now 14-3 this season in games without Point.
As a road underdog this postseason, the Lightning are now 3-2 straight up and 4-1 on the puck line. Just as the Capitals exposed in the first round, the Panthers’ defense is a massive concern for this series.
This season, the Panthers rank just 17th in the league in five-on-five expected goals against (xGA) per 60 minutes. Additionally, there should be concern about whether the Panthers’ starting goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky, can stop Tampa Bay.
This season against the Lightning, Bobrovsky has a troubling 0.868 save percentage. Combine that with a shaky defense against one of the best offenses in the league, I believe there is too much value in Tampa Bay’s moneyline to pass up.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning ML (+140)
St. Louis Blues (+185) @ Colorado Avalanche (-230), o/u 6.5 (-130/+110)
Following their 3-2 overtime victory on Tuesday, the Colorado Avalanche will look to take a 2-0 series lead on the Blues before traveling to St. Louis. While Colorado dominated the game from beginning to end, the sole reason St. Louis was able to stick around was the efforts of starting goaltender Jordan Binnington.
In Game 1, Binnington stopped 51 of the 54 shots he faced for a stellar 0.944 save percentage. Generating +2.11 goals saved above expected (GSAx), Binnington was remarkable all game.
While It truly was an above-and-beyond performance from Binnington, I am not expecting too much regression in Game 2. Since Binnington took over the starting goaltending duties before Game 4 of their First Round series against Minnesota, Binnington has produced a 0.944 save percentage and a 60-minute average of +1.02 GSAx.
Amongst starting goaltenders in the playoffs, this GSAx figure ranks second-best. We have seen this type of run from Binnington before as he looks just as sharp as he did in 2019 when he led the Blues to win the Stanley Cup.
On the other hand, St. Louis’ offense was completely lost in Game 1 as they were having difficulty just attempting to enter the zone. Generating only 1.87 expected goals for (xGF), St. Louis’ offense was heavily outmatched by the phenomenal play of Colorado’s blue line.
Speaking of which, Colorado’s defense remains the best part of their game despite their offense receiving most of the attention. This season, the Avalanche rank fourth in the league in five-on-five expected goals against (xGA) per 60 minutes.
With how dialed in Binnington is and how outstanding Colorado’s blue line has been all year long, I think Game 2 has a good shot at going under the total just like Game 1. At plus money, I think it is worth a stab as I would be shocked if St. Louis generated much more offense than they did in Game 2.
Best Bet: Blues/Avalanche u6.5 (+110)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.