March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor
UC Santa Barbara Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Ajay Mitchell |
16.1 |
3.2 |
5.8 |
19.4 |
21.9 |
25.1 |
0.6 |
4.6 |
| Miles Norris |
13.1 |
6.9 |
1.3 |
20.1 |
14.5 |
21.4 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
| Andre Kelly |
8.5 |
7.0 |
0.9 |
15.6 |
9.5 |
16.5 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Josh Pierre-Louis |
9.5 |
4.8 |
2.8 |
14.3 |
12.3 |
17.1 |
0.3 |
1.9 |
| Cole Anderson |
7.8 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
9.6 |
8.5 |
10.3 |
1.6 |
0.7 |
| Calvin Wishart |
8.0 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
11.9 |
11.6 |
15.5 |
0.9 |
2.0 |
| Ajare Sanni |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Koat Keat Tong |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jakov Kukic |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Matija Belic |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
| Evans Kipruto |
1.5 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Zach Harvey |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| David Pickles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Gage Gomez |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ariel Bland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Henry Hartwell |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Max Sheldon |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Baylor Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Keyonte George |
16.5 |
4.8 |
2.6 |
21.2 |
19.1 |
23.9 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
| Adam Flagler |
16.6 |
2.9 |
4.5 |
19.4 |
21.1 |
23.9 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
| LJ Cryer |
15.2 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
17.6 |
17.2 |
19.6 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
| Jalen Bridges |
12.4 |
7.5 |
1.2 |
19.9 |
13.5 |
21.1 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
| Langston Love |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Flo Thamba |
5.0 |
5.1 |
0.6 |
10.1 |
5.6 |
10.7 |
0.0 |
2.0 |
| Dale Bonner |
4.5 |
1.2 |
2.4 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
8.2 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
| Josh Ojianwuna |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Caleb Lohner |
1.2 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
2.7 |
1.3 |
2.8 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua |
4.3 |
3.8 |
0.3 |
8.0 |
4.6 |
8.4 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
| Zach Loveday |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jordan Turner |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jake Younkin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
UC Santa Barbara
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Ajay Mitchell Over 3.5 Assists |
-155 |
1.55 |
1 |
UB |
| Josh Pierre-Louis Over 8.5 Points |
104 |
1 |
1.04 |
FD |
| Miles Norris Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-124 |
1.24 |
1 |
UB |
| Andre Kelly Under 9.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
Baylor
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Keyonte George Over 2.5 Assists |
140 |
1 |
1.4 |
MGM |
| Jalen Bridges Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-114 |
1.14 |
1 |
FD |
| Adam Flagler Over 4.5 Assists |
126 |
1 |
1.26 |
FD |
| Keyonte George Over 20.5 PRAs |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| LJ Cryer Over 13.5 Points |
-118 |
1.18 |
1 |
UB |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
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West
Midwest
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