UFC 306 has been hyped as the most expensive production the UFC has done thus far, and it should be much more than a fight card. It is presented by Riyadh Season and will be in the Sphere in Las Vegas. The card is called UFC Noche and will commemorate Mexican Independence Day. It will celebrate Mexican culture and show clips between each fight, highlighting a historical journey in Mexican combat sports. It should be a spectacle with the technology the Sphere offers and has been labeled a once-in-a-lifetime event. The card also features two title fights between Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili for the bantamweight title and Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko for the women's flyweight title.
Mexico's finest MMA fighters are all over the prelims of this fight card, and I will help find the best plays to target before the main card begins. There are a couple of close fights to target that offer value.
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UFC 306 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Manuel Torres (-120) vs. Ignacio Bahamonodes (+100)
The fourth fight on the prelims is a lightweight bout between Manuel Torres and Ignacio Bahamondes. The Mexican, Torres, is 15-2 with three consecutive wins in the UFC. Bahamondes is 15-5, with a record of 4-2 in the UFC. Both are active strikers, but Torres has the wrestling and grappling advantages. Torres lands 8.14 significant strikes and absorbs 3.15 strikes per minute, while Bahamondes has a ratio of 7.15 to 4.38 significant strikes per minute.
It should be a close fight on the feet as long as it stays there. I would give Torres a slight advantage in striking, but he has a major advantage on the mat. Bahamondes had trouble defending takedowns against Ludovit Klein in 2023 and could find himself getting taken down by Torres, who averages 3.26 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Bahamondes has not been submitted since 2017, but Torres is a great grappler with seven submission victories. Torres has more ways to win this fight, which makes him a great bet at this price.
Bet: Manuel Torres (-120)
Irene Aldana (-115) vs. Norma Dumont (-105)
This matchup is a clash between striker and grappler. Irene Aldana has power in the women's bantamweight division but does not land many of her strikes. She averages 5.24 significant strikes landed and absorbs 6.33 significant strikes per minute. Aldana only lands 40% of her strikes while defending 57%.
Dumont, on the other hand, is a grapple-heavy fighter with solid striking. She is extremely defensive on the feet, which could pay dividends against Aldana. Dumont defends 66% of strikes while landing 3.11 and absorbing 1.89 significant strikes per minute. She also averages 1.91 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Aldana has decent takedown defense (76%) but has struggled to defend takedowns before. Amanda Nunes took her down six times with seven minutes of control time, and Holly Holm landed five takedowns for five minutes of control in Aldana's last two losses. Dumont should be able to land takedowns against Aldana's pressure striking style and will stay safe by defending the big strikes coming her way. Dumont's best game plan should be to control Aldana on the mat and land ground-and-pound against Aldana.
Bet: Norma Dumont (-105)
