The UFC returns to Las Vegas for another fight night card with a ranked middleweight main event. Brendan Allen is putting his No. 4 ranking on the line against No. 10 Christian Leroy Duncan. I have a pick for that fight, along with a method of victory prop on the main card. The prelims start at 5 p.m. EDT, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. EDT, all on Paramount+.
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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Picks & Bets (2026)
Andre Fili (-160) vs. Kai Kamaka (+124)
Andre Fili has been in the UFC since 2013 and is only 36. He is a consistent fighter and has seen it all, except a title shot. That is not likely to happen, but he is a much better fighter than Kai Kamaka. Kamaka joined the UFC in 2020, but was cut before returning in 2026. He is 2-3-1 in the promotion and is coming off a knockout loss in July.
That knockout loss is not inspiring, and he is returning quickly from it. Fili is not known for knockouts, but he can get it done, with four knockouts in the UFC. Kamaka only has one knockout against good competition and does not offer much power.
Fili can feel free to let loose in this matchup without much danger coming his way. Fili has the better wrestling/grappling, having trained his entire career with Team Alpha Male. He should take control of this fight early and start landing damage early in this fight.
Bet: Andre Fili to Win By Knockout (+240 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Brendan Allen (-125) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (+105)
The main event of the night is likely the best matchup on the entire card. Brendan Allen has proven himself as one of the best fighters in the division, rattling off three consecutive victories and 10 of his last 12 dating back to 2022. He is 27-7 as a professional and 15-4 in the UFC.
Allen's most recent victory was a unanimous decision over Edmen Shahbazyan in June. He knocked out Reinier de Ridder in a main event about a year ago, and beat Marvin Vettori via unanimous decision before that. He lost back-to-back fights against Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.
Duncan, or "CLD," has won five consecutive fights, improving his overall record to 15-2. He is 8-2 in the UFC since 2023, only losing to Armen Petrosyan and Gregory Rodrigues. His most recent victories in 2026 have shot him up the rankings. He beat Jared Cannonier in July and Roman Dolidze in March, both via unanimous decision.
Allen is a crafty veteran with a well-rounded skill set. He provides a tough matchup for Duncan, who is an extraordinary kickboxer. Duncan lands 4.45 significant strikes and absorbs 2.36 significant strikes per minute. He should have success on the feet, especially early. The longer this fight lasts, the more Allen should start to take over.
Allen showed his striking ability in his last fight against Shahbazyan, but his bread-and-butter is his grappling. He averages 1.52 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He also averages 1.1 submissions attempted per 15 minutes. Allen is a technical striker who is not overly ambitious. He picks his shots, defends well, and is just good enough to stay in the fight while looking for a takedown.
A five-round fight actually helps Allen, because Duncan is explosive and dangerous in the first two rounds. Allen should have a good game plan, and remain safe in the opening rounds before taking control on the mat in the final three rounds. Allen is a good bet in this spot, and you could even wait for a live bet early in the fight to get a good price on Allen.
Bet: Brendan Allen (-125 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
