UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo is set to get underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. While this card is certainly not the most exciting on paper, there are still a couple of betting angles to attack.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Long Shot Bets (10/15)
Misha Cirkunov vs. Alonzo Menifield
To kick off the main card, we gave a light heavyweight bout between Misha Cirkunov and Alonzo “Atomic” Menifield. We are getting a lot of value in this fight to go the distance because these are light heavyweights, but It could be a strong play.
Cirkunov likes to bring his opponent to the mat, evidenced by the fact that he lands 4.25 takedowns per 15 minutes at 43% accuracy. Regardless of weight class, grappling increases the likelihood of a fight to see the final bell.
We saw his grappling-heavy gameplan fail him last October in Cirkunov’s split-decision loss to Krzysztof Jotko. In fact, he has lost three straight fights and six of his last eight.
Meanwhile, Menifield enters this scrap in much better form as he has won three of his last four. A balanced fighter, Menifield is not afraid to mix his fighting styles for whatever direction the fight is taking.
Utilizing his balanced game, Menifield beat Ed Herman last year via unanimous decision as he landed a takedown while also landing 93 significant strikes. At 4/1, It is worth taking a shot at the fighter in better form to win this scrap via decision.
Pick: Alonzo Menifield to Win via Decision (+400)
Askar Askarov vs. Brandon Royval
Later in the main card, we have a flyweight bout between two of the flyweight division’s top contenders. The number four-ranked Askar Askarov will look to bounce back from his loss to Kai Kara-France against the number five-ranked Brandon Royval.
Both of these guys have faced the division’s top guys and are attempting to get back toward the top, although Askaraov has looked stronger recently. Winning three of his last four fights, Askarov’s only loss is to the division’s number three contender.
While Askarov is known for his grappling, he is a very underrated striker. Since joining the UFC, he has landed 3.05 strikes per minute at 54% accuracy.
We are getting a large number in his knockout prop because he has not finished anybody in the UFC. However, four of his first seven professional wins were via knockout.
Royval is not immune to getting knocked out, evidenced by his KO loss to Brandon Moreno. I think Askarov is the more technical and talented fighter, and at 6/1, It is worth taking a shot at him to finish Royval.
Pick: Askar Askarov to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+600)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.