March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Utah State vs. Missouri
Utah State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Steven Ashworth |
17.5 |
4.1 |
5.3 |
21.6 |
22.8 |
26.9 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
| Taylor Funk |
14.7 |
7.2 |
2.1 |
21.9 |
16.8 |
24.0 |
3.0 |
1.6 |
| Max Shulga |
13.2 |
5.7 |
4.9 |
18.8 |
18.0 |
23.7 |
2.0 |
3.8 |
| Daniel Akin |
11.1 |
7.6 |
1.0 |
18.7 |
12.1 |
19.7 |
0.0 |
3.8 |
| Sean Bairstow |
10.7 |
6.3 |
3.0 |
17.1 |
13.7 |
20.0 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
| Trevin Dorius |
5.6 |
4.5 |
0.3 |
10.0 |
5.8 |
10.3 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
| Zee Hamoda |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| R.J. Eytle-Rock |
4.4 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
6.2 |
5.7 |
7.4 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
| Rylan Jones |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Szymon Zapala |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Landon Brenchley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Conner Gillis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Connor Odom |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Missouri Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Kobe Brown |
17.0 |
7.2 |
2.5 |
24.2 |
19.6 |
26.7 |
1.4 |
3.2 |
| D’Moi Hodge |
15.8 |
4.3 |
1.6 |
20.0 |
17.4 |
21.7 |
2.9 |
1.8 |
| DeAndre Gholston |
12.9 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
15.8 |
14.9 |
17.9 |
1.0 |
2.9 |
| Noah Carter |
11.0 |
4.9 |
1.9 |
15.9 |
12.9 |
17.8 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
| Nick Honor |
7.4 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
9.1 |
10.0 |
11.6 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
| Sean East |
6.9 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
8.9 |
9.2 |
11.3 |
0.4 |
1.3 |
| Isiaih Mosley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tre Gomillion |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
| Aidan Shaw |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Mohamed Diarra |
3.2 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
3.7 |
7.0 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
| Ronnie Degray |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kaleb Brown |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ben Sternberg |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Mabor Majak |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jackson Francois |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Utah State vs. Missouri Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Utah State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Max Shulga Over 4.5 Rebounds |
115 |
1 |
1.15 |
DK |
| Taylor Funk Over 12.5 Points |
-104 |
1.04 |
1 |
UB |
| Sean Bairstow Over 9.5 Points |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
FD |
Missouri
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| DeAndre Gholston Over 10.5 Points |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
UB |
| Kobe Brown Over 15.5 Points |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
DK |
| Kobe Brown Over 2.5 Assists |
150 |
1 |
1.5 |
MGM |
| Noah Carter Over 4.5 Rebounds |
106 |
1 |
1.06 |
FD |
Win Prizes in our FREE Bracket Contest >>
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
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