We’ve got two matchups on the WNBA slate tonight. While it’s a small slate, there’s still plenty of value on the Market-based EV page. I’ll share my three favorite WNBA picks, but feel free to add more bets throughout the day as lines change.
Let’s have a huge Sunday.
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Thursday’s Best +EV WNBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Kelsey Plum Under 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+113 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +102
- Market EV: +3%
Kelsey Plum is one of the best scorers the WNBA has ever seen. However, she’s contributed just one three in each of her last two games and has nailed only one three in three of her last four games. Plum has hit at least two three-pointers in just 40% of her last 20 games. Plum has also played no more than 17 minutes in two consecutive games and could be limited today due to injury.
Ultimately, you can bet on Plum to go under 1.5 threes at +113 on Novig. The fair value is +102. That’s a solid 3% market EV bet and one of the best bets on the slate as of this morning.
Shakira Austin Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds (-105 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: -112
- Market EV: +3%
Shakira Austin has recorded at least 28 combined points + rebounds in seven of her last 10 games. Additionally, she’s hit this line in 70% of her last 20 games. The line is a bit lower today because Austin recorded only 22 combined points + rebounds in her most recent game against Phoenix.
Austin has grabbed at least six defensive rebounds in four of her last five games. She’s also earned multiple offensive rebounds in all but one of her last 10 games. Austin has shot nearly 54% from the field over that 10-game span and has attempted close to 15 shots per game.
The fair value is -112, so betting on the over at -105 on Fanatics Sportsbook looks enticing.
Jonquel Jones Under 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+100 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: -104
- Market EV: +2%
Jonquel Jones hasn’t had a ton of success from three-point range lately. She drilled only one three against Indiana on August 22nd and has had two games without a three-pointer in her last four games.
Jones has shot just 25% from deep in the last month. Again, she has four games without even hitting a three-pointer in that timeframe.
At Hard Rock Bet, you can bet on Jones to go under 1.5 made three-pointers at +100. The fair value is -104, giving this play a market EV of 2%. It’s not a massive play, but if you stack up 2% plays, you’ll likely see positive results over time.
