We have settled into the WNBA season, where teams are showing their identity as the storylines shape and the excitement plays out. There are four games on today’s slate with a lot to consider for the WNBA Commissioner's Cup. The highlight is Fever-Liberty to finish the night, but the Valkyries-Aces game should also be a treat. Beyond that, the Storm visit the Lynx at noon and the Mystics play the Dream in Atlanta. We are in the green with a solid outing last time, so let's do it again. I'll be here once a week to provide the best WNBA picks for the Saturday slate. Let's get to it.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Saturday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Last Time: 2-0 | Season: 5-3
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty
Let's start at the end, with what I believe to be the most interesting game of the slate. Indiana travels to the Barclays Center to take on the New York Liberty, with the Fever sitting around 4-point underdogs and a total of 176.5 points.
Of course, the biggest consideration here is Caitlin Clark. She's been dealing with back issues all year and is probable for tonight, but her status on the injury report is of note. A close second in consideration is Sabrina Ionescu, who seems a little less likely to play, as she is also dealing with a back issue. Make sure to monitor the news.
Both teams have been interesting this season, with high hopes for both, but have had OK starts, with neither squad more than two games above .500. But it's not because of poor defense. Both teams have been top-five units defensively in their most recent five games.
The Indiana Fever force teams inside, allowing the fewest three-point attempts among any WNBA team, while the Liberty get 36% of their points from three, the second-highest rate. It's tempting to take Indiana straight up here, but playing in Barclays Center is not easy, especially with the good juju New York sports have right now.
With both teams' stars not 100% and consistent defensive play, I'm riding with the under.
Pick: Under 176.5 Points (-110)
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream
Working backward, we now have the Washington Mystics traveling south to Atlanta, where the Dream are around double-digit favorites. It's hard to argue with it either, as their offense moves up three spots at home and they have the second-best defense in the league when hosting. It is a small sample size, but it's a good jumping-off point.
We've also seen the Mystics struggle when they play up in class. They can beat the Sky at home, or split with the Storm or the Tempo in their first game ever. But besides their win over the Fever, which I will give them credit for, they've struggled to compete against higher-class teams.
I don't usually love backing teams with large spreads, but it's hard to see Washington keeping up here. Angel Reese has dominated in the paint historically against the Mystics, Rhyne Howard should be slinging it from deep, and that's not even mentioning Allisha Gray. Don't be afraid of the large spread in this one.
Pick: Dream -10.0 (-110)
