We cashed a Brent Rooker home run ticket at +340 last night. Let’s see if we can stay hot with today’s three MLB home run props. Join me below.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jonathan Aranda (+420)
Jonathan Aranda has hit a .268 ISO and a wOBA of .400 against his last 74 righties. He’s also added 38.1% of fly balls, 61.9% of hard contact and a team-best 23.8% barrel rate against righties over the last 30 days. Aranda is a lefty who will take on righty Lake Bachar of the Marlins today.
Bachar has allowed a .200 ISO and a wOBA of .314 to his last 29 lefties faced. He’s also allowed 30% of fly balls and 45% of hard contact with a 15% barrel rate.
This is a solid matchup for Jonathan Aranda. Let’s take him to go deep.
Nick Kurtz (+300)
Nick Kurtz has smashed a .254 ISO and a wOBA of .466 against his last 89 righties. That’s a strong sample size.
Today, Kurtz battles Tatsuya Imai of the Astros, who has really struggled against lefties. He’s allowed a .261 ISO and a wOBA of .368 to his last 54 lefties. Those lefties have walked 13% of the time and have a 13.5% barrel rate with 27% of fly balls.
Kurtz has a 70.2% hard-hit rate and leads the team with a 19.1% barrel rate against righties over the last 30 days. Another good barrel shot should put the ball over the fence tonight.
Jackson Chourio (+300)
It sounds like Zach Agnos will get the bulk of the work for the Rockies tonight. He’s given up a .467 ISO and a wOBA of .464 to his last 32 righties. Those righties have also hit 38.5% of fly balls, 69.2% of hard contact and a 15.4% barrel rate.
Meanwhile, Agnos will take on Jackson Chourio of the Brewers, who has smoked a .205 ISO and a wOBA of .360 against his last 86 righties. He’s also a righty and has hit 42.9% of fly balls with a 19.6% barrel rate against righties.
Chourio is another great home run bet tonight.
