March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Xavier vs. Kennesaw State
Xavier Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Souley Boum |
18.0 |
4.9 |
4.1 |
22.9 |
22.1 |
27.0 |
2.4 |
4.6 |
| Colby Jones |
17.2 |
6.4 |
4.1 |
23.5 |
21.3 |
27.7 |
1.4 |
2.7 |
| Jack Nunge |
15.4 |
8.8 |
1.9 |
24.1 |
17.3 |
26.1 |
1.2 |
2.6 |
| Adam Kunkel |
12.2 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
15.5 |
15.2 |
18.5 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
| Zach Freemantle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jerome Hunter |
11.0 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
17.9 |
12.7 |
19.6 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
| Desmond Claude |
6.1 |
3.4 |
2.1 |
9.5 |
8.2 |
11.6 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
| Kyky Tandy |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cesare Edwards |
3.4 |
2.9 |
0.3 |
6.3 |
3.7 |
6.6 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
| Kam Craft |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dieonte Miles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Elijah Tucker |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Bradley Colbert |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Bob Nunge |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ian Sabourin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Michael Wolf |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kennesaw State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Chris Youngblood |
15.1 |
5.4 |
2.1 |
20.4 |
17.1 |
22.5 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
| Terrell Burden |
13.8 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
17.3 |
18.4 |
21.9 |
0.8 |
3.2 |
| Demond Robinson |
11.0 |
6.3 |
0.9 |
17.3 |
11.9 |
18.2 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
| Brandon Stroud |
9.6 |
7.3 |
1.8 |
16.9 |
11.4 |
18.7 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
| Spencer Rodgers |
5.5 |
3.1 |
2.0 |
8.6 |
7.5 |
10.6 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
| Kasen Jennings |
5.2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
8.2 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
| Quincy Ademokoya |
3.3 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
4.9 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
| Alex Peterson |
4.7 |
3.2 |
0.8 |
7.9 |
5.5 |
8.7 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
| Simeon Cottle |
2.6 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
| Cole LaRue |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ahmad Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Yves Nkomba |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Armani Harris |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Matt Brown |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Charle Stone |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Eric Holland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Xavier vs. Kennesaw State Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Xavier
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Colby Jones Over 3.5 Assists |
130 |
1 |
1.3 |
MGM |
| Souley Boum Over 2.5 Assists |
-159 |
1.59 |
1 |
UB |
| Souley Boum Under 5.5 Rebounds |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
UB |
| Jerome Hunter Over 9.5 Points |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
| Jerome Hunter Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Adam Kunkel Over 1.5 3Ps |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
MGM |
| Colby Jones Over 14.5 Points |
-124 |
1.24 |
1 |
UB |
Kennesaw State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Brandon Stroud Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
FD |
| Spencer Rodgers Under 6.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Terrell Burden Under 15.5 Points |
-117 |
1.17 |
1 |
UB |
| Chris Youngblood Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
East
West
Midwest
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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