It's not quite the Test of the Champion this year-but it might be the showdown of the season. With Belmont Park still under renovation, the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes returns to Saratoga Race Course for the second consecutive year. That means another 11/4-mile race-shorter than the traditional 11/2-mile "Test"-but no less meaningful. And while there's no Triple Crown on the line, Saturday's Belmont still has everything a horseplayer could want: elite contenders, tactical uncertainty, and just enough chaos lurking to make the exotics tempting. Let’s dive into a Belmont Stakes preview and focus on the best angles and edges for sports bettors.
Most eyes-and betting dollars-will be locked in on Journalism and Sovereignty, the two stars who already etched their names in Triple Crown lore. Journalism stormed from the back of the pack to take the Preakness, while Sovereignty stamped himself as the Derby king before sitting out the middle jewel to prep for this weekend. Now, they meet again in what feels like a true rubber match, a head-to-head clash that brings echoes of classic rivalries like Alydar and Affirmed.
- Belmont Stakes Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2025 Belmont Stakes Betting Guide
- Belmont Stakes: History, Odds, Trends & Best Bets
- Belmont Stakes Predictions: Longshot Bets & Sleeper Picks
- Belmont Stakes Picks & Predictions: Best Exotic Bets
2025 Belmont Stakes Betting Preview
The Saratoga Shift: How the Track Changes the Race
The change in venue from Belmont Park to Saratoga can't be ignored when handicapping this year's race. Traditionally, the Belmont's 11/2-mile distance tests stamina in a way no other race in the series does. But the shorter 11/4-mile configuration at Saratoga shifts the focus slightly-from raw endurance to race dynamics and positioning.
That shift may crack the door open for horses with early speed, particularly those drawn to the inside. According to podcast guest Luke Manaldo, every Belmont winner over the last 15 years has come from post positions inside the 7 gate, with few exceptions. That's a notable trend, especially with only eight horses in the field this year. While that may minimize the impact of post draw chaos-unlike the Derby's massive 20-horse field-it still gives a subtle edge to the inside runners.
And with a tighter track and shorter distance, front-runners like Rodriguez, trained by Bob Baffert, could get brave on the lead. Baffert's horses are often trained to break fast and stay in front, and in a race that may favor tactical speed over a late kick, that becomes a real factor.
Handicapping the Favorites: Journalism vs. Sovereignty
There's no mystery at the top of the board. Journalism (8-5) and Sovereignty (2-1) are the clear headliners-and deservedly so.
Journalism's Preakness win was dramatic, showcasing his relentless late turn of foot. But this will be his third race in five weeks, and history hasn't been kind to horses who've taken the full Triple Crown gauntlet without a break. On the other hand, Sovereignty has had five full weeks of rest and already owns a head-to-head victory over Journalism from the Derby. There's also a psychological edge to consider: Sovereignty absorbed Journalism's best punch down the stretch at Churchill Downs and held him off. That mental toughness could matter in a stretch duel.
Still, Journalism is battle-tested and talented, and if the early pace gets hot, his closing ability becomes a weapon again-especially on a track where traffic and positioning are less of an issue due to the small field.
Value Plays and Exotic Tickets
If you’re looking beyond the top two, Basa (4-1) is a logical third choice. He finished third in the Derby and skipped the Preakness to target this race. With Flavien Prat aboard and solid form, he's a strong candidate to round out exacta or trifecta tickets.
Want more value? Consider Crudeau (15-1), trained by Todd Pletcher and out of Justify. He disappointed in the Peter Pan but could rebound here. Pletcher has been responsible for more than 25% of all in-the-money finishes at the Belmont over the past 15 years, a staggering stat that suggests his horses almost always show up.
As for true bombs, Uncaged (30-1) is the lottery ticket play. His sixth-place finish in the Peter Pan raised red flags, and his form doesn't inspire much confidence. But in such a small field, he could sneak into the bottom of a superfecta if chaos unfolds. As Manaldo pointed out, the cost of a YOLO trifecta box excluding Journalism and Sovereignty would only run you $36 for a 20-cent ticket-a fun dart throw if you're chasing big payouts.
Rodriguez (6-1) also deserves a mention. Trained by Baffert, he didn't run in either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness, which makes him an X-factor here. If he gets loose on the lead-and if the top two favorites are too focused on each other-Rodriguez could steal it.
The final leg of the Triple Crown, THE BELMONT STAKES, is this weekend! Join @Between_SethFF, @sportstalkmatt & @MoKnowsSports for your best picks, exotics and long shots! pic.twitter.com/2yiZCRiJ0h
— BettingPros (@BettingPros) June 6, 2025
Betting Strategy: Chalk on Top, Mix It Up Below
Let's be honest: this probably isn't the race to get rich fading the chalk. The Belmont has historically favored favorites, with the top betting choice winning over 42% of the time. In a short field without much early speed, the path to victory likely runs through Journalism or Sovereignty.
Still, the how of it matters. You can rotate exactas and trifectas with both horses in the top two slots and take a stand on who you like for third-Basa, Crudeau, or Rodriguez. Want to spice it up? Box all three underneath in your trifecta and hope a favorite stubs a toe.
But if you’re feeling bold, you can fade both Journalism and Sovereignty entirely and build a longshot trifecta or superfecta. Just don't say we didn't warn you-those are likely "donation" tickets, but the payout if they hit could be massive.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 Belmont Stakes may lack the historic stakes of a Triple Crown decider, but it brings plenty of drama. It's a rubber match between two exceptional horses with real pedigree and something to prove. There's plenty of opportunity here-from sharp exotic plays to longshot sprinkles.
And while Saratoga may not be the Belmont we're used to, it's giving us a race we can all get behind: two great horses, one last showdown, and a field ready to play spoiler.
Buckle up. The third jewel of the Triple Crown is about to shine.
2025 Belmont Stakes Post Positions & Odds
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hill Road | Chad Brown | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 10-1 |
| 2 | Sovereignty | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 2-1 |
| 3 | Rodriguez | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 6-1 |
| 4 | Uncaged | Todd Pletcher | Luis Saez | 30-1 |
| 5 | Crudo | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 15-1 |
| 6 | Baeza | John Shirreffs | Flavien Prat | 4-1 |
| 7 | Journalism | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli | 8-5 |
| 8 | Heart of Honor | Jamie Osborne | Saffie Osborne | 30-1 |
Looking for a deeper dive into the 2025 Belmont Stakes? Don’t miss our complete Belmont Stakes Betting Guide, where we break down the field from top to bottom. From post position trends and pedigree analysis to expert picks and value plays, this guide has everything you need to bet smarter on this year’s Test of the Champion. Are you backing a favorite like Journalism or riding the momentum with Sovereignty, or are you eyeing a longshot to upset the field? Make sure to read our full preview before placing those bets.
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