March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 234-180, +41.86 units (Through Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Arkansas vs. UConn
Arkansas Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Ricky Council |
15.9 |
3.9 |
1.6 |
19.8 |
17.5 |
21.5 |
0.6 |
5.7 |
| Anthony Black |
11.8 |
5.3 |
2.8 |
17.1 |
14.6 |
19.9 |
0.5 |
4.1 |
| Davonte Davis |
10.7 |
4.6 |
1.8 |
15.3 |
12.5 |
17.1 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
| Jordan Walsh |
7.3 |
4.4 |
0.7 |
11.7 |
8.0 |
12.4 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
| Makhi Mitchell |
7.3 |
6.2 |
0.8 |
13.5 |
8.2 |
14.4 |
0.0 |
1.5 |
| Nick Smith |
11.1 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
12.7 |
12.3 |
13.8 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
| Jalen Graham |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Makhel Mitchell |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Trevon Brazile |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Joseph Pinion |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kamani Johnson |
2.1 |
3.2 |
0.1 |
5.3 |
2.3 |
5.4 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Derrian Ford |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cade Arbogast |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Lawson Blake |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Barry Dunning |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
UConn Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Adama Sanogo |
16.7 |
8.1 |
0.9 |
24.8 |
17.7 |
25.7 |
0.4 |
3.2 |
| Jordan Hawkins |
13.0 |
3.6 |
0.9 |
16.6 |
13.9 |
17.5 |
1.8 |
3.5 |
| Tristen Newton |
9.4 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
13.9 |
12.9 |
17.4 |
0.8 |
4.3 |
| Alex Karaban |
8.9 |
4.7 |
1.3 |
13.7 |
10.2 |
15.0 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
| Donovan Clingan |
5.0 |
4.6 |
0.3 |
9.7 |
5.3 |
9.9 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
| Andre Jackson |
7.1 |
7.7 |
3.8 |
14.8 |
10.9 |
18.5 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
| Joey Calcaterra |
5.5 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
7.4 |
6.5 |
8.3 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
| Nahiem Alleyne |
4.9 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
6.2 |
5.5 |
6.8 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
| Hassan Diarra |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
| Richie Springs |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Samson Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Apostolos Roumoglou |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andrew Hurley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Yarin Hasson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Emmett Hendry |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andre Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Arkansas vs. UConn Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Arkansas
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Ricky Council Under 0.5 3Ps |
155 |
1 |
1.55 |
DK |
| Davonte Davis Under 5.5 Rebounds |
-160 |
1.6 |
1 |
FD |
| Davonte Davis Under 11.5 Points |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
FD |
| Nick Smith Under 13.5 Points |
-121 |
1.21 |
1 |
UB |
UConn
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Andre Jackson Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-134 |
1.34 |
1 |
UB |
| Tristen Newton Under 20.5 PRAs |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Tristen Newton Under 4.5 Assists |
102 |
1 |
1.02 |
FD |
| Alex Karaban Over 1.5 Assists |
145 |
1 |
1.45 |
MGM |
| Jordan Hawkins Under 14.5 Points |
-104 |
1.04 |
1 |
FD |
Stop tracking bets manually and get sync your picks for a seamless sport betting experience >>
More Round 2 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Sweet 16 Betting Picks & Predictions (Thursday)
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
