March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Auburn vs. Houston
Auburn Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Wendell Green |
13.2 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
17.0 |
17.1 |
20.9 |
1.2 |
5.3 |
| Johni Broome |
13.0 |
9.2 |
1.3 |
22.2 |
14.2 |
23.5 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
| Jaylin Williams |
8.3 |
4.3 |
1.7 |
12.6 |
9.9 |
14.2 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
| Allen Flanigan |
9.5 |
5.3 |
1.3 |
14.8 |
10.8 |
16.1 |
1.1 |
2.3 |
| K.D. Johnson |
8.1 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
10.3 |
9.3 |
11.5 |
1.0 |
2.5 |
| Dylan Cardwell |
2.3 |
2.9 |
0.7 |
5.2 |
3.0 |
5.9 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Chris Moore |
1.9 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
3.5 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
| Zep Jasper |
2.3 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
| Tre Donaldson |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
| Yohan Traore |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
| Lior Berman |
1.8 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
3.0 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
| Chance Westry |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Babatunde Akingbola |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jalen Harper |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chandler Leopard |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Carter Sobera |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Marcus Sasser |
10.2 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
12.2 |
11.8 |
13.8 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
| Jarace Walker |
13.0 |
9.1 |
1.7 |
22.1 |
14.7 |
23.8 |
0.9 |
2.1 |
| J’Wan Roberts |
12.2 |
10.7 |
1.1 |
22.9 |
13.3 |
24.0 |
0.0 |
2.6 |
| Jamal Shead |
10.9 |
3.8 |
4.9 |
14.7 |
15.8 |
19.6 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
| Tramon Mark |
10.3 |
5.8 |
1.7 |
16.2 |
12.1 |
17.9 |
0.9 |
2.9 |
| Emanuel Sharp |
5.8 |
2.7 |
0.4 |
8.5 |
6.3 |
9.0 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
| Ja’Vier Francis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Terrance Arceneaux |
3.8 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
6.6 |
4.3 |
7.1 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
| Reggie Chaney |
2.2 |
2.4 |
0.2 |
4.6 |
2.5 |
4.8 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| Ramon Walker |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ryan Elvin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Darius Bowser |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Auburn vs. Houston Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Auburn
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Johni Broome Over 7.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
UB |
| Allen Flanigan Over 4.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
UB |
| Jaylin Williams Over 3.5 Rebounds |
-140 |
1.4 |
1 |
DK |
| Wendell Green Over 3.5 Assists |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
MGM |
Houston
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jamal Shead Under 12.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Jarace Walker Over 6.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
UB |
| J’Wan Roberts Over 10.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
UB |
| Jamal Shead Over 2.5 Rebounds |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
UB |
| J’Wan Roberts Over 20.5 PRAs |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
UB |
| Tramon Mark Over 9.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
UB |
More Round 2 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Round 2 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 2 Betting Picks & Predictions
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
