Best College Football Bets & Picks: Week 1 (2025)

College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for every week of college football action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 1. Check out all of his top college football Week 1 picks and predictions below.

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College Football Week 1 Bets & Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Arizona vs. Hawai’i

A Week 1 letdown spot. Hawai’i came away with the improbable win at home last week against Stanford, despite holding the ball for only 23:53 in time of possession, recording 306 total yards and more punts than third-down conversions. Quarterback Micah Alejado is probable, but he was clearly gimpy at the end of the Stanford game and is likely playing at less than 100%.

Arizona doesn't have an outstanding roster among the Power Four teams, but they are still in the 40s, while Hawai'i is scraping near the bottom of the barrel. The Wildcats are missing their best player from last season in Tetairoa McMillan, and while he can't be replaced, they added multiple transfers at wide receiver, running back and along the offensive line who will start. Over half of their awful defense from last season has been replaced by portal transfers.

Arizona isn't a great squad in the grand picture of college football, but they are much better than Hawai'i in every aspect of the game. The travel might not be the worst part of this game for Hawai'i, as the kickoff temperature is forecasted to be around 94 degrees. The defense is likely to drop like flies late in this game if they are on the field for over 35 minutes of clock again. Arizona might not have many chances at blowout wins this season, but this should be one of them.

Pick: Arizona -17.5 (-112)

No. 20 Indiana vs. Old Dominion

This is a lopsided line, but this is also a massive mismatch as Indiana is top-15 in roster strength and Old Dominion checks in right at 100th. Old Dominion gave the South Carolina Gamecocks a massive problem in Week 1 last season, which came out of nowhere and was entirely unexpected. Ricky Rahne had his team ready to go for Week 1, but Curt Cignetti has been the king of efficiency and preparedness in his career, and the same should be expected this season.

Indiana replaced some key players, but quarterback Fernando Mendoza, running back Roman Hemby and center Pat Coogan are enormous additions on the offensive side. The Hoosiers also added four starters on the defensive side of the ball, bringing in help to replace the talent that departed for the NFL. Indiana won 11 games last season, with seven by 24+ points, most against opponents that were much better than this Old Dominion team. The public has no fear of this line, and it might open up as we get closer to kickoff. Indiana has made stepping on throats a signature; expect more of the same.

Pick: Indiana -23.5 (-115)

Kentucky vs. Toledo

The system shows line value toward the Kentucky side in this game against the highest-rated roster in the MAC, Toledo. Toledo is eighth in returning offensive production, including starting quarterback Tucker Gleason and their team leader in receptions, wide receiver Junior Vandeross III. Toledo plugged holes on the offensive side of the ball with transfers, but the concern is on the defensive side. Toledo is only 81st in returning defensive production, and the defense was way better than the offense last season, grading as the 15th-best defense while the offense checked in at 105th. Toledo does have four returning starters, but they are all in the secondary, and Kentucky ran the ball at a 55% rate in 2024.

Kentucky has one of the lowest roster strength ratings among SEC teams, but it still ranks 33rd in the FBS, and Toledo ranks in the low 60s. Kentucky should be a completely different team this year on both sides of the ball, which is good and bad news. Kentucky lost a lot of production for a very strong defense last year and only returns three starters. However, its miserable offense, which ranked 92nd and 119th in scoring, is completely overhauled, with only two returning starters and seven transfer starters. New quarterback Zach Calzada, along with help at running back and along the offensive line, should help change the lopsided roster from 2024.

Kentucky will be desperate for this win as the schedule does them no favors, and their wins total line is set at only 4.5. Mark Stoops is 8-0 against the MAC since joining Kentucky in 2013, and his average margin of victory in those games is 19.9 points. The money is currently trending toward Kentucky, so grab this one before it jumps.

Pick: Kentucky -9.5 (-108)

Auburn vs. Baylor

Auburn is getting the edge, even on the road here, and the system agrees. Auburn seems like a team that is 'ready to take the next step' after a disastrous 2024 due to some unbelievably epic turnovers. Auburn graded as a top-25 overall team, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), and was 28th and 31st in total offense and defense, respectively. The issues for Auburn in 2024 were that they ranked 105th in red-zone conversion rate and 120th in turnover margin. The quarterback issues were addressed two-fold: New starter Jackson Arnold gets the offensive line he didn't have at Oklahoma last year, and the Tigers have a four-star freshman recruit in Deuce Knight, who was the sixth-highest rated quarterback prospect according to 247 Sports. The Tigers’ defense, which graded as a top-20 unit, was 31st in total defense and 27th in scoring defense last season, and ranks 23rd in defensive returning production.

Baylor is at home in this game, and they rank in the top 10 in total returning production. However, this squad, like most Big 12 Teams, is skewed toward the offense and lacks the talent to keep pace on defense. Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson and preseason All-American wide receiver Josh Cameron should be able to put points up. Baylor ranks 10th in offensive returning production and had a top-20 scoring offense last year. The issue is with the defensive side, which ranked well below average across the board statistically and graded 103rd.

This is a tight line and laying points, on the road, for a team that lost close games last season could be seen as a reach. If the Tigers have fixed their red-zone and turnover issues with new options at the quarterback spot, this game will go to Auburn, and the total should be in danger as well.

Pick: Auburn -2.5 (-110) & Over 58.5 Points (-110)

College Football Leans for Week 1

Utah vs. UCLA - Under 51.5 Points (-112)

Utah was 129th in pace of play in 2024; UCLA was 128th. Both teams should see massive upgrades at quarterback, but it’s Week 1.

No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 9 LSU - Clemson -3.5 (-110)

Clemson is first in returning production, they are at home and LSU hasn’t won an opener since its National Championship season in 2019.

No. 8 Alabama -14 vs. FSU - Alabama -14 (-108)

Florida State is much better than they were last year, but with a focus on running the ball in 2025, Alabama is a bad draw in Week 1.

Tennessee vs. No. 24 Syracuse - Tennessee – 14 (-105)

Syracuse is likely replacing too much on offense to handle Tennessee. Joey Aguilar is a downgrade at quarterback for the Volunteers, but he has 25 starts over the last two years and a 66:24 touchdown-to-interception ratio.