The first full weekend of the 2025 college football season wraps up at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C. as the TCU Horned Frogs of the Big 12 Conference take on the North Carolina Tar Heels of the Atlantic Coast Conference.
On Monday night, there is a little more interest in a TCU-UNC game that you’d normally see. That’s because NFL legendary head coach Bill Belichick makes his official debut on the sidelines for the Tar Heels. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can officially be viewed or streamed on ESPN.
Let’s build our bankroll with our best college football picks and bets for Monday, September 1st.
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Monday’s Best College Football Week 1 Picks & Bets
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Bill Belichick is the one and only reason that a pair of unranked teams are playing this opener on Labor Day night in a marquee television spot normally reserved for a Top 25 battle. The former NFL coach, who has Super Bowl rings, coaches his very first college game in his new home.
The Tar Heels, despite their big-name coach, head into the game unranked and as a slight home underdog.
The Horned Frogs have one of the better quarterbacks in the Big 12 conference, as QB Josh Hoover is back to steer the ship. He completed 66.5% of his passes for 3,949 yards, 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2024, while running for four scores. However, nobody is confusing Hoover for Trevone Boykin or Max Duggan, two dual-threat TCU quarterbacks who lit it up in multiple facets of the game. Hoover is a pocket passer with limited mobility, but he has a quick release and a great deep ball.
Hoover will be looking to get the ball into the hands of WRs Eric McAlister and Jordan Dwyer, the latter being a transfer in from FCS power Idaho. The Tar Heels weren’t very good against the pass, and they leaned upon the portal hard trying to quickly add patches to improve dramatically. We’ll see, as they get a good test right off the bat.
TCU ended up winning nine games last season, and the defense improved tremendously under then first-year coordinator Andy Avalos, allowing 13 or fewer points in three of the final four games, including just three points in a rout of Louisiana in the New Mexico Bowl.
On the flip side, Carolina went 6-6 in the regular season, and it lost to UConn in the Fenway Bowl by a 27-14 count. It needed to do something to shake things up, and the Tar Heels certainly made headlines. But, can even Belichick transfer what has traditionally been a basketball-first school into a legit national football power?
The Tar Heels added QB Gio Lopez via the transfer portal. He did big things for the South Alabama Jaguars, but Tom Brady, he is not. He completed 66.0% of his passes for 2,559 yards, 18 TDs and 5 INTs for USA in 2024, while running for 465 yards and seven scores, while averaging 5.6 rushing yards per attempt.
Lopez will have a retooled offensive line to run behind, and he has RB Davion Gause has giant shoes to fill for the departed RB Omarion Hampton. With WR J.J. Jones and TE John Copenhaver having moved on, as well as Hampton, the leading returning receiver is WR Kobe Paysour. He had 21 receptions for 365 yards in 2024, an average of 17.4 yards per reception, but he did not have any scores.
Coaching pedigree and history can only take North Carolina so far. They have some nice pieces, but this assortment of players doesn’t appear to be much better than last season, if not actually slightly worse. Who is going to replace Hampton’s production? He was a superstar, and this team doesn’t look like it has one.
Roll with TCU to get the job done on the road, and we’ll lean to the Over, as the Horned Frogs have a tremendous offense, and the Tar Heels should be able to make things happen with Lopez, both on the ground and with his feet.
If you want to have some fun with a player prop or two, enhancing your same-game parlay (SGP), let’s look to Lopez for North Carolina first. As the Tar Heels are expected to be fighting from behind in the second half, take the Over on his passing yards, which seems a bit low. We’ll take Dwyer to make a splash in his first game for TCU, going Over his total yardage total, too.
Picks: TCU -3.5 (-115) & Over 55.5 Points (-106)
Best Parlays for Monday
Best Same Game Parlay
Parlay Odds: +241
Roll the Dice Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: TCU -3.5 (-115)
- Leg 2: Over 55.5 Points (-106)
- Leg 3: Gio Lopez (UNC) Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Leg 4: Jordan Dwyer (TCU) Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Parlay Odds: +717
