The college basketball season is back, injecting some much-needed excitement through everyone’s living room television sets as everyone gets set up to huddle in for winter. For those who think college basketball is a March-only sport, I'm sorry. You missed an awesome Gonzaga-Baylor game where the Bulldogs showed why they're in title contention and Duke debuted their freshman phenoms that aim to make waves in the college ball landscape over the coming months.
I'll be here weekly to take you through the day's matchups, providing previews and my best bets. As always, be sure to shop around as college basketball is one of the least sharp sports out there, especially as you go down the line to the mid-major matchups. There are some fantastic values every single day and the weekend slate is no exception. This weekend isn't the best, but it's highlighted by two marquee matchups, let's get to it.
- NCAA College Basketball Odds
- NCAA College Basketball Player Props
- NCAA College Basketball Picks & Predictions
- NCAA College Basketball Matchups
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Saturday’s Best College Basketball Picks
Last Time: 0-0 | Season: 0-0
Houston vs. Auburn Preview
In what promises to be one of the most intriguing early-season matchups of the 2024-25 campaign, Houston hosts Auburn in a clash that will pit two of college basketball’s most formidable defenses against each other. After both teams walloped their respective opponents in their season openers, these teams rank first and second in the nation on KenPom. This can be the best game of the entire season and perhaps the matchup of the year.
The game’s defining storyline centers around the matchup in the paint. Auburn features Johni Broome, one of college basketball’s most complete big men, against Houston’s fearsome defensive duo of Ja’Vier Francis and Joseph Tugler.
Broome brings a versatile offensive arsenal that will test Houston’s elite rim protection. The Tigers’ star ranked 26th nationally in block rate last season while shooting an impressive 41.5% from three in SEC play. He’ll need every tool in his kit against a Houston defense that ranked 10th nationally in field goal attempts allowed at the rim last season. Tugler boasts an impressive 7-foot-6 wingspan. While Auburn is coming off an onslaught of Vermont, Houston is a large step up in class.
Francis missed the season opener but returned to practice Wednesday, so he should be good to go for Houston. The Cougars’ duo of Francis and Tugler posted jaw-dropping defensive numbers last year - opponents shot just 39.5% from inside the arc with Francis patrolling the paint and Tugler posted even better overall defensive metrics. Their length could force Broome outside where he's developed a respectable perimeter shot.
While the frontcourt matchup is a clash of titans, both teams enter with questions in their backcourts. Houston replaces All-American Jamal Shead with Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan while Auburn similarly revamped their guard rotation, bringing in Furman transfer JP Pegues to run the show.
The Cougars will lean heavily on LJ Cryer’s shooting and Emanuel Sharp’s scoring punch. Sharp’s ability to hit contested threes could be crucial against Auburn’s aggressive perimeter defense. For the Tigers, Pegues brings impressive scoring credentials from the Southern Conference (117 offensive rating on 26% usage) but has struggled against top competition (77 offensive rating vs. top-50 teams). Shoutout to Three Man Weave for that nugget.
The X-Factors here have to be the guard play. With Pegues and Auburn stepping up in class after embarrassing Vermont, it will be interesting to see if they can continue scoring and defending at such a high rate. Similarly, Uzan is trying to fill the shoes of Shead, so it is still to be determined if he can replicate the production and facilitating of the All-American.
Another note is that while both teams play phenomenal defense, foul trouble may come into play tonight. Last year, each squad ranked in the bottom 50 in free throw rate allowed, so this game could come down to how the refs call it.
In the end, Houston’s combination of elite defense, offensive rebounding (top-11 nationally seven straight years), and semi-home court advantage should prove too much for Auburn. While Broome will get his numbers, the Cougars’ depth of interior defenders and more proven backcourt gives them the edge in what should be a physical, defensive struggle.
The Tigers had the best two-point defense in the nation last year, so this is my bet on Sharp, Cryer and even Terrance Arceneaux getting his from deep.
Prediction: Houston – 70, Auburn – 66
Best Bet: Houston -2.5 (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Baylor vs. Arkansas Preview
This matchup between Baylor and Arkansas promises to be a high-energy contest with intriguing key battles. After boasting a top-six-ranked offense a year ago, Baylor got demolished in their season opener, falling 101-63 to Gonzaga. It's tough to trigger the panic meter so early in the season but another sub-par performance could be quite concerning for the Bears.
With key players like Jeremy Roach, V.J. Edgecombe and Norchad Omier, I'm expecting a general bounce-back tonight for Baylor. Arkansas is coming off a solid win over what could be a top-100 team in Lipscomb, defeating the Bisons 76-60. Expect the Razorbacks to rely heavily on Johnell Davis for offensive firepower after an efficient first game under John Calipari.
Oh yeah, that's another thing. John Calipari runs the helm for Arkansas now. A big question coming into the season was to see if Calipari would continue his run-and-gun offense from a year ago or go back to his historical crash glass, slog of an offensive strategy. It's too early to tell, but to start 4-19 to open the year from deep isn't exactly promising.
One of the critical matchups to watch will be Baylor’s Omier against Arkansas’ frontcourt duo of Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazile. Omier, despite his 6-foot-7 frame, has a proven track record of double-doubles, while Brazile’s shooting could stretch Baylor’s defense by pulling Omier away from the rim. Brazile came off the bench in the season opener but expect to see him in an extended role tonight.
Defensively, there are holes on both sides. Baylor ranked 72nd defensively last year while Calipari-led teams have struggled to field a top-30 defense in the past five years. Offensively, Baylor employs a modern pick-and-roll system with multiple shooters, contrasting with Arkansas’ somewhat uncertain style under Calipari, who may oscillate between his modernized approach from Kentucky or revert to his traditional methods, similar to his offensive style concerns.
X-factors include if Baylor as a whole can step up after being sent home with their tails between their legs on Monday. Edgecombe's debut left a lot to be desired, Jeremy Roach didn't exactly seamlessly transition and Baylor as a whole went 3-21 from deep against Gonzaga.
Another big note is the departure of offensive-minded assistant coach John Jakus, which can result in another step-back for Baylor's offense. Arkansas capitalized on 19 Lipscomb turnovers and transition play - attempting 33% of total shot attempts in transition. I don't expect them to be able to do the same against a significantly more athletic Baylor team on a neutral court.
Overall, I'm leaning toward preseason priors. Both teams have talented rosters, and Baylor’s proven offensive system and better shooting should give them the edge. Arkansas is still figuring out its identity under Calipari, and its shooting limitations could be exposed against Baylor’s offense-first approach.
Expect a fast-paced, entertaining game where Baylor’s superior floor spacing and ball movement ultimately prevail. I still have doubts about the Bears' offense to repeat last year's performance. While it should be an entertaining game, don't be surprised by slightly fewer points than expected.
Prediction: Baylor – 76, Arkansas – 71
Best Bet: Under 154 Points (-108 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tennessee vs. Louisville Preview
Am I allowed to pick a team on pure vibes? Pat Kelsey has taken over this Louisville program after revamping Charleston and the results are already showing. Videos of him walking the Louisville campus are flooding Twitter and the Cardinals started their season strong. Not only did they hold Morehead State to 45 points but they allowed the single lowest effective field goal percentage among all NCAA Division I (DI) teams. Not bad. Tennessee has their work cut out for them entering the KFC Yum! Center.
For Tennessee, the focus this season is to build on their elite defense while finding enough offensive firepower to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Volunteers return a strong core, led by star point guard Zakai Zeigler, last season's SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Alongside Zeigler, the defensive unit is anchored by aggressive wing Jahmai Mashack and shot-blocker Felix Okpara, forming the foundation of what should be one of the top defenses in the country.
That defense was fine against Garder Webb but allowed the Runnin' Bulldogs to go 18-32 from inside the arc. That raised a few eyebrows but isn't exactly anything to overreact to yet, especially with this game being out of reach after the first 30 minutes of game time.
The big question for Tennessee is how to replace the departure of Dalton Knecht, the offensive heartbeat of last year's Volunteers team. Rick Barnes and Co. turned to the transfer portal to reload, bringing in shooters like Chaz Lanier, Darlinstone Dubar and Igor Milicic Jr. to complement Zeigler's playmaking.
On the other hand, Louisville is in full rebuild mode under new head coach Pat Kelsey. To go with the vibes, the Cardinals have completely revamped their roster, adding 12 new players through the transfer portal. Leading the way is defensive specialist Chucky Hepburn from Wisconsin and scorer Terrence Edwards Jr. from James Madison.
Kelsey has focused on creating a balanced, deep roster, though the Cardinals may not have a standout superstar. Instead, they offer strength at every position, with contributions expected from all over the court. The challenge for Louisville will be how quickly this new-look team can gel and adjust to Kelsey's fast-paced, possession-driven system.
This matchup presents a fascinating contrast in styles: Tennessee's suffocating defense against Louisville's balanced offensive attack. If the Volunteers can dictate the tempo and control the game defensively, they'll be hard to beat. But if the Cardinals can push the pace and get solid production from their influx of new players, they could surprise Tennessee with an upset. My lean is the latter.
The vibes are immaculate in Louisville and the Vols ranked 319th in away from home Haslametrics a year ago. Their offense can fall apart at times. I'm going for it and calling and upset.
Prediction: Louisville – 76, Tennessee – 70
Best Bet: Louisville Moneyline (+116 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
