The Fiesta Bowl between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Boise State Broncos is the only one of the four College Football Playoff (CFP) quarter-finals to be played on New Year’s Eve.
While it is a matchup of the No. 6 seed and the No. 3 seed, oddsmakers believe in the Nittany Lions, instilling them as 11-point favorites.
How does that impact our thoughts on our player prop bets for this quarter-final matchup?
Read on for our top three player prop bets and picks from Tuesday’s Fiesta Bowl, where we look to build on our 3-0 run from our last college football player prop piece.
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Best College Football Player Prop Bets & Picks: Fiesta Bowl
Let’s dive into our top college football player prop bet picks for this Tuesday’s Fiesta Bowl action.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise specified)
Ashton Jeanty Under 130.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty eclipsed this projected total in all but two games this season and has run for 209+ yards in back-to-back games. And in the only game he faced a CFP team this season, he made the most of his 25 carries against Oregon, rushing for 192 yards and three touchdowns.
The big concern for Jeanty going over this projected total in this matchup is negative game script, with Penn State being an 11-point favorite. That played a key role in the Nittany Lions’ 38-10 blowout win over SMU in the first round, as they forced the Mustangs to be one-dimensional.
Penn State held SMU to 58 yards rushing and 1.6 yards per carry, improving upon its top-25 ranking in rush success defense and No. 4 ranking in line yards entering the matchup.
I expect Penn State to load the box and make Boise State throw early and often and for the game script to eventually force the Broncos to abandon the run earlier than they would like.
Drew Allar Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)
Penn State would prefer to dominate opponents with its strong running game instead of letting Drew Allar chuck it all over the field. And while weather played a part in the game plan, it was evident the Nittany Lions did not want to ask too much of their quarterback in the first round, as he attempted just 22 passes.
As long as this game does not turn into a track meet, I am happy to back Allar’s under for 1.5 passing touchdowns at plus-money odds. Allar has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in three of the last four games, and six of the previous eight.
While Boise State’s defense entered the Mountain West Championship ranked 82nd in pass success, it was also a top-20 unit in terms of Havoc ranking. That could pose trouble for Allar, who was pressured on 30.5% of his dropbacks entering the SMU game.
Nicholas Singleton to Score Penn State’s First Touchdown (+220)
Penn State running back Nicholas Singleton has the shortest odds to be his team’s first touchdown scorer, slightly ahead of tight end Tyler Warren (+310) and fellow backfield mate Kaytron Allen (+410). And while I was tempted to back Singleton’s +360 odds to be the first touchdown scorer of the game, Penn State has allowed the first touchdown in three of its last four games, while Singleton was the first Nittany Lions player to find the end zone in two of the last three.
Singleton is as consistent as they come in finding the end zone, as he has scored either a rushing or receiving touchdown in five consecutive games. He is the preferred early goal-line back, as his previous two rushing touchdowns have come from one and two yards away.
As long as Penn State does not capitalize early on Boise State’s defense that ranks 98th in passing explosives allowed entering its last game, Singleton has a great chance to find the end zone before any other Nittany Lions player.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.