March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Creighton vs. Baylor
Creighton Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner |
16.2 |
6.9 |
1.6 |
23.2 |
17.8 |
24.8 |
0.2 |
2.9 |
| Trey Alexander |
13.7 |
4.5 |
3.2 |
18.2 |
16.8 |
21.3 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
| Baylor Scheierman |
12.1 |
8.5 |
3.7 |
20.6 |
15.8 |
24.3 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
| Arthur Kaluma |
11.5 |
6.1 |
1.9 |
17.6 |
13.3 |
19.5 |
1.1 |
2.5 |
| Ryan Nembhard |
12.2 |
4.5 |
6.1 |
16.6 |
18.3 |
22.8 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
| Fredrick King |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Francisco Farabello |
2.8 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
5.1 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
| Mason Miller |
2.2 |
1.6 |
0.3 |
3.7 |
2.4 |
4.0 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
| Shereef Mitchell |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Ben Shtolzberg |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zander Yates |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Sami Osmani |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Evan Young |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Baylor Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Keyonte George |
14.9 |
4.8 |
2.5 |
19.7 |
17.3 |
22.1 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
| Adam Flagler |
16.0 |
3.1 |
4.5 |
19.1 |
20.5 |
23.6 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
| LJ Cryer |
13.8 |
2.5 |
1.9 |
16.3 |
15.7 |
18.2 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
| Jalen Bridges |
11.3 |
7.6 |
1.1 |
18.9 |
12.3 |
19.9 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
| Langston Love |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
| Flo Thamba |
3.3 |
3.7 |
0.4 |
7.0 |
3.7 |
7.4 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
| Dale Bonner |
4.3 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
5.7 |
6.8 |
8.1 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
| Josh Ojianwuna |
2.2 |
2.1 |
0.1 |
4.3 |
2.3 |
4.4 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| Caleb Lohner |
2.3 |
3.2 |
0.2 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5.8 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
| Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua |
4.1 |
4.1 |
0.3 |
8.2 |
4.4 |
8.5 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
| Zach Loveday |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jordan Turner |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jake Younkin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Creighton vs. Baylor Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Creighton
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 5.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Ryan Nembhard Over 4.5 Assists |
126 |
1 |
1.26 |
FD |
| Arthur Kaluma Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-127 |
1.27 |
1 |
UB |
Baylor
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jalen Bridges Over 9.5 Points |
-106 |
1.06 |
1 |
UB |
| Adam Flagler Over 3.5 Assists |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
DK |
| Jalen Bridges Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
FD |
| Keyonte George Over 12.5 Points |
-129 |
1.29 |
1 |
UB |
| LJ Cryer Under 14.5 Points |
105 |
1 |
1.05 |
DK |
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