March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 272-209, +48.52 units (Through Sweet 16)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 272-209, +48.52 units (Through Sweet 16)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Creighton vs. San Diego State
Creighton Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner |
14.9 |
6.6 |
1.1 |
21.5 |
16.0 |
22.6 |
0.2 |
2.7 |
| Trey Alexander |
13.3 |
4.7 |
2.3 |
18.0 |
15.6 |
20.3 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
| Baylor Scheierman |
12.5 |
9.3 |
2.9 |
21.8 |
15.4 |
24.7 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
| Ryan Nembhard |
11.2 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
15.4 |
15.3 |
19.5 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
| Arthur Kaluma |
10.4 |
6.1 |
1.3 |
16.6 |
11.8 |
17.9 |
1.0 |
2.5 |
| Fredrick King |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Francisco Farabello |
3.2 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
5.5 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
| Mason Miller |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Shereef Mitchell |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Ben Shtolzberg |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zander Yates |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Sami Osmani |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Evan Young |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
San Diego State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Matt Bradley |
10.6 |
3.5 |
1.7 |
14.2 |
12.3 |
15.9 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
| Darrion Trammell |
9.3 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
11.8 |
12.2 |
14.7 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
| Lamont Butler |
7.6 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
10.3 |
10.5 |
13.3 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
| Jaedon Ledee |
7.6 |
5.7 |
0.9 |
13.3 |
8.5 |
14.3 |
0.0 |
1.8 |
| Micah Parrish |
8.3 |
4.3 |
0.7 |
12.6 |
9.0 |
13.3 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
| Keshad Johnson |
7.7 |
5.6 |
0.6 |
13.3 |
8.3 |
13.9 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
| Nathan Mensah |
5.4 |
5.9 |
0.5 |
11.3 |
5.9 |
11.8 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
| Adam Seiko |
5.4 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
6.7 |
6.0 |
7.3 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
| Aguek Arop |
4.1 |
2.9 |
0.8 |
7.0 |
4.9 |
7.8 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| Miles Byrd |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Elijah Saunders |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Demarshay Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cade Alger |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jared Barnett |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Triston Broughton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tyler Broughton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Creighton vs. San Diego State Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Creighton
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Ryan Nembhard Over 3.5 Assists |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 5.5 Rebounds |
115 |
1 |
1.15 |
DK |
| Trey Alexander Under 1.5 3Ps |
150 |
1 |
1.5 |
DK |
San Diego State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Lamont Butler Under 3.5 Rebounds |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Matt Bradley Under 3.5 Rebounds |
125 |
1 |
1.25 |
DK |
| Lamont Butler Under 3.5 Assists |
-140 |
1.4 |
1 |
FD |
| Jaedon Ledee Over 5.5 Rebounds |
104 |
1 |
1.04 |
FD |
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More Player Prop Bet Picks
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