March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 171-114, +50.3 units (Through Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Duke vs. Tennessee
Duke Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Kyle Filipowski |
15.5 |
10.4 |
1.5 |
26.0 |
17.0 |
27.5 |
1.0 |
4.5 |
| Jeremy Roach |
13.5 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
16.5 |
16.6 |
19.5 |
1.3 |
2.7 |
| Tyrese Proctor |
9.2 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
12.8 |
12.3 |
15.9 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
| Mark Mitchell |
9.3 |
5.2 |
1.2 |
14.4 |
10.4 |
15.6 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
| Ryan Young |
2.6 |
2.6 |
0.5 |
5.1 |
3.1 |
5.6 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
| Dariq Whitehead |
6.8 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
9.1 |
7.6 |
9.9 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
| Dereck Lively II |
7.2 |
7.7 |
1.4 |
14.9 |
8.6 |
16.4 |
0.1 |
1.1 |
| Jacob Grandison |
2.0 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
3.6 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
| Jaylen Blakes |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jaden Schutt |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Christian Reeves |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kale Catchings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Stanley Borden |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Spencer Hubbard |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Max Johns |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Tennessee Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Santiago Vescovi |
11.0 |
4.1 |
2.9 |
15.1 |
13.9 |
18.0 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
| Olivier Nkamhoua |
9.0 |
4.5 |
2.0 |
13.6 |
11.0 |
15.5 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
| Zakai Zeigler |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Julian Phillips |
7.6 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
12.0 |
9.0 |
13.5 |
0.3 |
2.5 |
| Tyreke Key |
7.6 |
2.4 |
1.5 |
10.0 |
9.1 |
11.5 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
| Josiah-Jordan James |
10.3 |
5.0 |
1.9 |
15.2 |
12.2 |
17.2 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
| Jonas Aidoo |
3.7 |
4.0 |
0.8 |
7.7 |
4.6 |
8.6 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
| Uros Plavsic |
4.9 |
3.6 |
0.9 |
8.5 |
5.7 |
9.3 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
| Jahmai Mashack |
5.9 |
3.3 |
2.3 |
9.2 |
8.2 |
11.5 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
| Tobe Awaka |
2.6 |
3.1 |
0.2 |
5.6 |
2.8 |
5.9 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| B.J. Edwards |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Isaiah Sulack |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Colin Coyne |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kent Gilbert |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Alec Kegler |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Duke vs. Tennessee Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Duke
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jeremy Roach Over 2.5 Assists |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
UB |
| Kyle Filipowski Over 8.5 Rebounds |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
UB |
| Mark Mitchell Over 14.5 PRAs |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Dereck Lively II Over 5.5 Points |
-140 |
1.4 |
1 |
MGM |
Tennessee
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jahmai Mashack Over 2.5 Rebounds |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
DK |
| Tyreke Key Under 9.5 Points |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
FD |
| Olivier Nkamhoua Under 4.5 Rebounds |
115 |
1 |
1.15 |
UB |
| Olivier Nkamhoua Under 10.5 Points |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
MGM |
| Santiago Vescovi Under 12.5 Points |
105 |
1 |
1.05 |
DK |
More Round 2 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Round 2 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 2 Betting Picks & Predictions
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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