March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue
Fairleigh Dickinson Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Demetre Roberts |
12.6 |
2.6 |
3.6 |
15.2 |
16.2 |
18.8 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
| Grant Singleton |
11.4 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
14.8 |
14.5 |
17.9 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
| Ansley Almonor |
11.7 |
4.6 |
1.3 |
16.2 |
13.0 |
17.6 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
| Joe Munden |
9.4 |
5.0 |
1.0 |
14.4 |
10.4 |
15.4 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
| Sean Moore |
5.7 |
4.3 |
0.9 |
10.0 |
6.6 |
10.9 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
| Heru Bligen |
3.5 |
1.9 |
0.3 |
5.5 |
3.9 |
5.8 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
| Jo’el Emanuel |
1.8 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
3.3 |
2.5 |
4.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
| Sebastien Lamaute |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cameron Tweedy |
3.0 |
2.6 |
0.5 |
5.6 |
3.5 |
6.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Brayden Reynolds |
1.5 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
3.3 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Trevon Blassingame |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Pier-Olivier Racine |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Brandon Upshaw |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Purdue Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Zach Edey |
25.9 |
13.3 |
2.0 |
39.2 |
27.9 |
41.2 |
0.0 |
5.7 |
| Fletcher Loyer |
10.0 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
11.5 |
12.6 |
14.1 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
| Braden Smith |
11.1 |
4.3 |
5.6 |
15.5 |
16.8 |
21.1 |
1.1 |
2.9 |
| Mason Gillis |
10.2 |
5.0 |
2.1 |
15.2 |
12.3 |
17.3 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
| Brandon Newman |
10.8 |
4.9 |
2.1 |
15.7 |
13.0 |
17.9 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
| Caleb Furst |
3.8 |
2.9 |
0.6 |
6.7 |
4.4 |
7.2 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn |
3.3 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
5.2 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
| David Jenkins |
5.2 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
6.8 |
6.4 |
7.9 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
| Ethan Morton |
3.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
8.0 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
| Brian Waddell |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Carson Barrett |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chase Martin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Sam King |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Fairleigh Dickinson
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Grant Singleton Over 10.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Sean Moore Under 13.5 PRAs |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
DK |
| Ansley Almonor Over 1.5 3Ps |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
DK |
| Grant Singleton Over 1.5 3Ps |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
Purdue
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Brandon Newman Over 7.5 Points |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
FD |
| Fletcher Loyer Over 7.5 Points |
-118 |
1.18 |
1 |
FD |
| Braden Smith Over 3.5 Rebounds |
125 |
1 |
1.25 |
DK |
| Mason Gillis Over 1.5 Assists |
135 |
1 |
1.35 |
MGM |
| Zach Edey Over 36.5 PRAs |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
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