March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 252-195, +44.31 units (Through Sweet 16 Thursday)
Elite 8 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 252-195, +44.31 units (Through Sweet 16 Thursday)
Elite 8 Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Elite 8 Picks & Predictions
Elite 8 Same Game Parlay Picks
Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State
Florida Atlantic Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Johnell Davis |
15.3 |
6.8 |
1.9 |
22.1 |
17.2 |
23.9 |
1.3 |
3.8 |
| Alijah Martin |
13.1 |
6.0 |
1.7 |
19.1 |
14.7 |
20.7 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
| Vladislav Goldin |
10.5 |
7.6 |
0.5 |
18.1 |
11.0 |
18.6 |
0.0 |
2.5 |
| Nick Boyd |
8.1 |
4.4 |
2.6 |
12.5 |
10.7 |
15.1 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
| Michael Forrest |
4.3 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
5.6 |
5.2 |
6.6 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
| Bryan Greenlee |
6.7 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
9.4 |
9.0 |
11.7 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
| Giancarlo Rosado |
4.9 |
3.4 |
1.3 |
8.3 |
6.2 |
9.6 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
| Brandon Weatherspoon |
4.8 |
2.4 |
0.9 |
7.3 |
5.7 |
8.2 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
| Jalen Gaffney |
3.5 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
8.1 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
| Tre Carroll |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Isaiah Gaines |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Brenen Lorient |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Alejandro Ralat |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Kansas State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Keyontae Johnson |
18.9 |
8.6 |
1.5 |
27.5 |
20.4 |
29.0 |
1.2 |
3.1 |
| Markquis Nowell |
17.3 |
4.1 |
5.3 |
21.4 |
22.6 |
26.7 |
2.1 |
4.7 |
| Nae’Qwan Tomlin |
10.5 |
6.9 |
0.8 |
17.4 |
11.3 |
18.2 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
| Desi Sills |
8.5 |
4.0 |
1.4 |
12.5 |
9.9 |
13.9 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
| Camryn Carter |
6.6 |
3.5 |
1.0 |
10.2 |
7.6 |
11.1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
| David N’Guessan |
5.4 |
3.4 |
0.4 |
8.9 |
5.9 |
9.3 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
| Ismael Massoud |
5.7 |
2.1 |
0.3 |
7.8 |
6.1 |
8.1 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
| Abayomi Iyiola |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Tykei Greene |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dorian Finister |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nate Awbrey |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Florida Atlantic
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Alijah Martin Over 5.5 Rebounds |
122 |
1 |
1.22 |
FD |
| Nick Boyd Under 1.5 3Ps |
145 |
1 |
1.45 |
DK |
| Bryan Greenlee Under 7.5 Points |
-129 |
1.29 |
1 |
CZR |
| Nick Boyd Under 9.5 Points |
-145 |
1.45 |
1 |
DK |
| Vladislav Goldin Over 7.5 Points |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
MGM |
| Vladislav Goldin Over 15.5 PRAs |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
Kansas State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Desi Sills Under 1.5 Assists |
125 |
1 |
1.25 |
MGM |
| Markquis Nowell Under 8.5 Assists |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
FD |
| Keyontae Johnson Under 1.5 3Ps |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Nae’Qwan Tomlin Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-140 |
1.4 |
1 |
FD |
Stop tracking bets manually and get sync your picks for a seamless sport betting experience >>
More Player Prop Bet Picks
Find all of our player prop bets here >>
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
